The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 9

2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

New York Knicks at Brooklyn Nets

Wednesday, November 9, 2022 · tip-off time not recorded

NYK 0–0@BKN 1–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: NYK 55 percent, BKN 45 percent. NYK Knicks 55% proj. 110 · final 85 BKN Nets · home 45% proj. 108 · final 112
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
NYK New York Knicks 110 85 −25
BKN Brooklyn Nets (home) 108 112 +4

Forecast: New York Knicks to win, 55% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputNYKBKN
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15111501
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +60
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −0.1−0.3
Games played this season 1011
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 111.4113.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 111.9111.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 99.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 6.534.8
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingNYK1511BKN1501

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

NYK1511

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1519 → started this one at 1514
  2. This season's 10 games: −3.1
  • L@MEM112–115−2.9
  • WDET130–106+8.7
  • WORL115–102+4.5
  • WCHA134–131+4.9
  • L@MIL108–119−6.5
  • L@CLE108–121−8.4
  • LATL99–112−16.0
  • W@PHI106–104+7.3
  • LBOS118–133−11.2
  • W@MIN120–107+16.5

BKN1501

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1525 → started this one at 1518
  2. First 1 games: −22.3
  3. Last 10 games: +4.7
  • WTOR109–105+6.0
  • L@MEM124–134−5.5
  • L@MIL99–110−5.7
  • LDAL125–129−5.4
  • LIND116–125−16.0
  • WIND116–109+4.9
  • LCHI99–108−13.2
  • W@WAS128–86+34.0
  • W@CHA98–94+8.0
  • L@DAL94–96−2.4
Season scoring marginNYK−0.1BKN−0.3

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

NYK−0.1

Scores 115.0, allows 115.0 over 10 games: ±0.0 a game.

50% this season (±0.0) + 50% last season (−0.1) = −0.1

BKN−0.3

Scores 110.5, allows 111.5 over 11 games: −0.9 a game.

55% this season (−0.9) + 45% last season (+0.5) = −0.3

Offensive rating, last 10NYK111.4BKN113.0

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 111.3).

NYK111.4scored, +0.1 vs league

FactorNYKLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.8%53.5%−1.1
Turnovers (TOV%)12.4%12.7%+0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.2%23.8%+1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1880.207−0.6
Everything else−0.2

BKN113.0scored, +1.7 vs league

FactorBKNLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.7%53.5%+1.8
Turnovers (TOV%)12.0%12.7%+1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.2%23.8%−1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2310.207+0.7
Everything else−0.6
Defensive rating, last 10NYK111.9BKN111.7

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 111.3).

NYK111.9allowed, +0.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.4%53.5%+3.1
Turnovers (TOV%)10.8%12.7%−2.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.0%23.8%−0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1860.207+0.6
Everything else−1.0

BKN111.7allowed, +0.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.5%53.5%+1.6
Turnovers (TOV%)13.3%12.7%+0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.8%23.8%−1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2280.207−0.6
Everything else−0.8
Pace, last 10average 99.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

NYK 101.0 and BKN 97.0 → average 99.0 (league 2022-23 to date: 100.2)

Rotation points missingNYK6.5BKN34.8

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

NYK6.5pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Mitchell Robinson6.521.88

Source: official injury report, 2022-11-09 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

BKN34.8pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Kyrie Irving28.639.37
Yuta Watanabe6.216.89

Source: official injury report, 2022-11-09 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestNYK2 daysBKN2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

NYK2days

Last played Nov 7 against MIN.

BKN2days

Last played Nov 7 against DAL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

NYK

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 7@MIN120–10739-8919-4823-25169115.4102.9104.0
Nov 5BOS118–13346-9011-2715-161312119.2135.798.5
Nov 4@PHI106–10437-809-3323-272110101.0101.0104.0
Nov 2ATL99–11237-9010-3615-20161298.0110.9101.0
Oct 30@CLE108–12145-9210-278-161412110.2122.298.5
Oct 28@MIL108–11937-9312-3522-321213103.8114.4104.0
Oct 26CHA134–13152-9711-3019-221612119.6117.0101.4
Oct 24ORL115–10243-9311-3718-251318116.2105.298.0
Oct 21DET130–10650-9516-3814-221211125.0101.9104.0
Oct 19@MEM112–11544-1099-3715-181218105.7107.596.5

BKN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 7@DAL94–9635-8010-2914-191314105.6109.188.5
Nov 5@CHA98–9433-8412-3620-22119105.4100.093.5
Nov 4@WAS128–8650-9014-2814-1477132.087.897.5
Nov 1CHI99–10836-7412-3215-19184104.2112.595.5
Oct 31IND116–10943-8011-3019-20196110.5104.8104.5
Oct 29IND116–12541-8214-3920-2696120.8128.996.5
Oct 27DAL125–12943-9312-3527-301313114.7121.797.4
Oct 26@MIL99–11034-867-2724-3014796.1105.8103.5
Oct 24@MEM124–13447-879-2921-26119126.5136.798.0
Oct 21TOR109–10538-8013-3520-291313114.7109.495.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games
45%
pregame chance the forecast gave BKN, the winner
the forecast favored NYK
29 pts
margin miss
forecast −2, actual +27 for BKN
343rd
most surprising result of 2022-23
of 1,314 graded games
32nd
largest margin miss of 2022-23
outcome surprise 0.80 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statNYKBKN
Final score85112
Field goals28–87 · 32.2%42–87 · 48.3%
Three-pointers12–43 · 27.9%14–34 · 41.2%
Free throws17–26 · 65.4%14–20 · 70.0%
Rebounds4655
Assists2130
Turnovers1514
Steals511
Blocks45

How the model does with these teams over time: New York Knicks · Brooklyn Nets

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (BKN)−2+27+29
Total points218197−21
NYK points11085−25
BKN points108112+4

Recent form before this game

New York Knicks

DateOpponentResult
Nov 7 at MIN W 120–107
Nov 5 vs BOS L 118–133
Nov 4 at PHI W 106–104
Nov 2 vs ATL L 99–112
Oct 30 at CLE L 108–121

Brooklyn Nets

DateOpponentResult
Nov 7 at DAL L 94–96
Nov 5 at CHA W 98–94
Nov 4 at WAS W 128–86
Nov 1 vs CHI L 99–108
Oct 31 vs IND W 116–109

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 6 2021-22 BKN at NYK BKN 110 – 98 NYK
Mar 13 2021-22 NYK at BKN NYK 107 – 110 BKN
Feb 16 2021-22 BKN at NYK BKN 111 – 106 NYK
Nov 30 2021-22 NYK at BKN NYK 110 – 112 BKN