The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Jan 12

2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Boston Celtics at Brooklyn Nets

Thursday, January 12, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

BOS 2–4@BKN 2–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: BOS 28 percent, BKN 72 percent. BOS Celtics 28% proj. 110 · final 109 BKN Nets · home 72% proj. 119 · final 98
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
BOS Boston Celtics 110 109 −1
BKN Brooklyn Nets (home) 119 98 −21

Forecast: Brooklyn Nets to win, 72% win probability, projected margin 9.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputBOSBKN
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16311616
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +55
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +6.0+4.0
Games played this season 4240
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 119.5121.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 111.9109.9
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 8.329.0
Rest days 14
Second night of a back-to-back YesNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingBOS1631BKN1616

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

BOS1631

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1695 → started this one at 1646
  2. First 32 games: −29.4
  3. Last 10 games: +13.9
  • WMIN121–109+5.1
  • WMIL139–118+10.8
  • WHOU126–102+3.8
  • WLAC116–110+3.4
  • L@DEN111–123−12.0
  • L@OKC117–150−36.5
  • W@DAL124–95+25.0
  • W@SAS121–116+3.3
  • WCHI107–99+4.1
  • WNOP125–114+6.9

BKN1616

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1525 → started this one at 1518
  2. First 30 games: +36.3
  3. Last 10 games: +61.4
  • W@DET124–121+3.7
  • WGSW143–113+16.4
  • WMIL118–100+12.5
  • W@CLE125–117+11.1
  • W@ATL108–107+3.4
  • W@CHA123–106+8.1
  • WSAS139–103+5.8
  • L@CHI112–121−12.8
  • W@NOP108–102+9.2
  • W@MIA102–101+4.0
Season scoring marginBOS+6.0BKN+4.0

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

BOS+6.0

Scores 118.6, allows 112.6 over 42 games: +6.0 a game.

BKN+4.0

Scores 114.6, allows 110.6 over 40 games: +4.0 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10BOS119.5BKN121.0

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 113.0).

BOS119.5scored, +6.5 vs league

FactorBOSLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.9%54.3%+2.5
Turnovers (TOV%)10.3%12.4%+3.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.2%23.8%−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2290.213+0.5
Everything else+0.9

BKN121.0scored, +8.0 vs league

FactorBKNLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)62.4%54.3%+12.3
Turnovers (TOV%)12.2%12.4%+0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)16.2%23.8%−3.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1750.213−1.1
Everything else−0.0
Defensive rating, last 10BOS111.9BKN109.9

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 113.0).

BOS111.9allowed, −1.1 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.7%54.3%−2.3
Turnovers (TOV%)11.1%12.4%−1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)18.4%23.8%+2.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1530.213+1.7
Everything else+1.0

BKN109.9allowed, −3.1 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.7%54.3%+5.4
Turnovers (TOV%)11.7%12.4%−0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.6%23.8%−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2240.213−0.3
Everything else−0.2
Pace, last 10average 100.2

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

BOS 101.2 and BKN 99.3 → average 100.2 (league 2022-23 to date: 100.0)

Rotation points missingBOS8.3BKN29.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

BOS8.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Al Horford8.329.410

Source: official injury report, 2023-01-12 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

BKN29.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Kevin Durant29.033.810

Source: official injury report, 2023-01-12 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestBOS1 daysBKN4 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

BOS1day, back-to-back

Last played Jan 11 against NOP.

BKN4days

Last played Jan 8 against MIA.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

BOS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 11NOP125–11444-9115-4422-25911123.8114.0100.5
Jan 9CHI107–9938-8711-4120-2199112.6104.295.0
Jan 7@SAS121–11647-9515-3412-18148116.3110.5104.5
Jan 5@DAL124–9541-8416-4326-311110126.596.998.0
Jan 3@OKC117–15040-8812-4025-311711110.4140.2106.5
Jan 1@DEN111–12340-879-3322-271310111.0120.6101.0
Dec 29LAC116–11044-9111-3917-221111116.0110.0100.0
Dec 27HOU126–10243-9120-5620-23109124.8101.0101.0
Dec 25MIL139–11850-8519-3920-25115135.0113.5103.5
Dec 23MIN121–10944-10013-4620-261120118.6107.9101.5

BKN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 8@MIA102–10139-7612-3312-15166110.9109.892.0
Jan 6@NOP108–10237-8515-3319-201210112.5105.296.5
Jan 4@CHI112–12142-9112-3716-21105106.7114.2105.5
Jan 2SAS139–10358-9311-2012-15127132.497.2105.5
Dec 31@CHA123–10648-8013-3414-19142123.0105.0100.5
Dec 28@ATL108–10742-8310-2614-17125112.5110.396.5
Dec 26@CLE125–11747-8218-3013-17157127.6120.697.5
Dec 23MIL118–10046-9314-3212-131012121.6104.296.5
Dec 21GSW143–11354-8421-3314-16143137.5108.7104.0
Dec 18@DET124–12144-8015-2921-23134125.3123.598.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games
28%
pregame chance the forecast gave BOS, the winner
the forecast favored BKN
20 pts
margin miss
forecast +9, actual −11 for BKN
45th
most surprising result of 2022-23
of 1,314 graded games
156th
largest margin miss of 2022-23
outcome surprise 1.28 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statBOSBKN
Final score10998
Field goals41–86 · 47.7%38–84 · 45.2%
Three-pointers12–36 · 33.3%13–34 · 38.2%
Free throws15–17 · 88.2%9–11 · 81.8%
Rebounds4831
Assists2326
Turnovers1312
Steals48
Blocks69

How the model does with these teams over time: Boston Celtics · Brooklyn Nets

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (BKN)+9−11−20
Total points229207−22
BOS points110109−1
BKN points11998−21

Recent form before this game

Boston Celtics

DateOpponentResult
Jan 11 vs NOP W 125–114
Jan 9 vs CHI W 107–99
Jan 7 at SAS W 121–116
Jan 5 at DAL W 124–95
Jan 3 at OKC L 117–150

Brooklyn Nets

DateOpponentResult
Jan 8 at MIA W 102–101
Jan 6 at NOP W 108–102
Jan 4 at CHI L 112–121
Jan 2 vs SAS W 139–103
Dec 31 at CHA W 123–106

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Dec 4 2022-23 BOS at BKN BOS 103 – 92 BKN
Apr 25 2021-22 BOS at BKN BOS 116 – 112 BKN
Apr 23 2021-22 BOS at BKN BOS 109 – 103 BKN
Apr 20 2021-22 BKN at BOS BKN 107 – 114 BOS
Apr 17 2021-22 BKN at BOS BKN 114 – 115 BOS