2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Sacramento Kings at Toronto Raptors

Wednesday, April 1, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

SAC 5–2@TOR 5–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
SAC Sacramento Kings	108	123	+15
TOR Toronto Raptors (home)	119	115	−4

Forecast: Toronto Raptors to win, 78% win probability, projected margin 11.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	SAC	TOR
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1308	1542
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+304
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−10.4	+2.2
Games played this season	76	75
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	113.1	120.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	124.3	114.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	99.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	9.3	32.5
Rest days	3	1
Second night of a back-to-back	No	Yes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingSAC1308TOR1542

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

SAC1308

Ended last season at 1499 → started this one at 1499
First 66 games: −179.6
Last 10 games: −10.7

LCHA109–117−3.2
W@LAC118–109+23.5
WUTA116–111+4.7
LSAS104–132−5.2
LPHI118–139−12.9
WBKN126–122+4.2
L@CHA90–134−4.4
L@ORL117–121−1.8
L@ATL113–123−2.4
L@BKN99–116−13.2

TOR1542

Ended last season at 1394 → started this one at 1420
First 65 games: +79.6
Last 10 games: +41.9

WPHX122–115+7.5
WDET119–108+14.3
W@CHI139–109+17.4
L@DEN115–121−4.9
L@PHX98–120−14.8
W@UTA143–127+8.1
L@LAC94–119−13.4
WNOP119–106+6.8
WORL139–87+25.7
L@DET116–127−4.8

Season scoring marginSAC−10.4TOR+2.2

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

SAC−10.4

Scores 110.7, allows 121.1 over 76 games: −10.4 a game.

TOR+2.2

Scores 114.3, allows 112.2 over 75 games: +2.2 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10SAC113.1TOR120.2

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).

SAC113.1scored, −1.6 vs league

Factor	SAC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.6%	54.6%	+1.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.6%	12.2%	−0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.4%	26.0%	+1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.170	0.210	−1.1
Everything else			−2.5

TOR120.2scored, +5.6 vs league

Factor	TOR	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	58.7%	54.6%	+6.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.6%	12.2%	+0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.8%	26.0%	+0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.195	0.210	−0.4
Everything else			−1.5

Defensive rating, last 10SAC124.3TOR114.3

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).

SAC124.3allowed, +9.6 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	59.3%	54.6%	−7.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.7%	12.2%	−2.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.8%	26.0%	+0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.201	0.210	+0.3
Everything else			−0.6

TOR114.3allowed, −0.3 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.4%	54.6%	−2.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.7%	12.2%	+2.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.9%	26.0%	+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.247	0.210	−1.1
Everything else			+1.6

Pace, last 10average 99.2

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

SAC 98.5 and TOR 100.0 → average 99.2 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.2)

Rotation points missingSAC9.3TOR32.5

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

SAC9.3pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Russell Westbrook	9.3	29.3	3

Source: official injury report, 2026-04-01 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

TOR32.5pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Brandon Ingram	20.8	33.3	8
Immanuel Quickley	11.8	31.4	5

Source: official injury report, 2026-04-01 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestSAC3 daysTOR1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

SAC3days

Last played Mar 29 against BKN.

TOR1day, back-to-back

Last played Mar 31 against DET.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

SAC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 29	@BKN	99–116	36-84	10-32	17-25	15	11	103.1	122.1	95.5
Mar 28	@ATL	113–123	45-93	12-32	11-13	15	14	116.5	126.8	97.0
Mar 26	@ORL	117–121	45-88	14-33	13-16	9	9	123.2	128.7	94.5
Mar 24	@CHA	90–134	37-91	9-28	7-11	12	8	90.9	138.1	98.0
Mar 22	BKN	126–122	43-82	14-27	26-34	16	13	134.0	127.1	95.0
Mar 19	PHI	118–139	43-89	12-32	20-29	13	14	113.5	132.4	104.5
Mar 17	SAS	104–132	41-93	14-36	8-13	8	6	104.0	132.0	100.0
Mar 15	UTA	116–111	41-85	11-36	23-28	18	12	112.6	106.7	103.5
Mar 14	@LAC	118–109	48-82	12-27	10-16	19	9	116.8	106.9	101.5
Mar 11	CHA	109–117	45-83	8-25	11-14	13	7	116.0	121.9	95.0

TOR

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 31	@DET	116–127	43-89	10-29	20-31	13	14	116.0	128.3	99.5
Mar 29	ORL	139–87	54-94	13-29	18-22	10	7	132.4	83.7	104.5
Mar 27	NOP	119–106	48-93	10-28	13-18	13	13	119.0	106.0	100.0
Mar 25	@LAC	94–119	40-96	10-29	4-11	11	15	98.9	125.3	95.0
Mar 23	@UTA	143–127	54-88	20-37	15-28	15	6	131.2	115.5	109.5
Mar 22	@PHX	98–120	37-75	9-28	15-22	19	7	101.0	125.0	96.5
Mar 20	@DEN	115–121	44-86	10-31	17-23	10	11	121.1	126.0	95.5
Mar 18	@CHI	139–109	48-84	14-33	29-33	18	6	129.9	100.9	107.5
Mar 15	DET	119–108	44-91	8-28	23-30	10	20	125.3	113.7	95.0
Mar 13	PHX	122–115	46-86	14-27	16-20	10	8	127.1	118.6	96.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

22%

pregame chance the forecast gave SAC, the winner

the forecast favored TOR

19 pts

margin miss

forecast +11, actual −8 for TOR

33rd

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

229th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 1.50 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	SAC	TOR
Final score	123	115
Field goals	42–92 · 45.7%	42–77 · 54.5%
Three-pointers	12–33 · 36.4%	9–23 · 39.1%
Free throws	27–29 · 93.1%	22–32 · 68.8%
Rebounds	48	32
Assists	24	33
Turnovers	13	11
Steals	7	9
Blocks	3	5

How the model does with these teams over time: Sacramento Kings · Toronto Raptors

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (TOR)	+11	−8	−19
Total points	227	238	+11
SAC points	108	123	+15
TOR points	119	115	−4

Recent form before this game