2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

New Orleans Pelicans at Toronto Raptors

Tuesday, March 5, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

NOP 2–2@TOR 0–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
NOP New Orleans Pelicans	120	139	+19
TOR Toronto Raptors (home)	112	98	−14

Forecast: New Orleans Pelicans to win, 61% win probability, projected margin 8.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	NOP	TOR
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1602	1416
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−117
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+4.5	−3.2
Games played this season	61	61
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	114.6	111.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	109.2	114.2
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	100.4
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	37.4
Rest days	4	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingNOP1602TOR1416

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

NOP1602

Ended last season at 1535 → started this one at 1527
First 51 games: +82.7
Last 10 games: −7.0

L@LAL122–139−17.3
W@POR93–84+4.5
W@MEM96–87+5.8
WWAS133–126+1.3
WHOU127–105+6.4
LMIA95–106−17.2
LCHI106–114−15.4
W@NYK115–92+23.0
L@IND114–123−10.0
WIND129–102+11.9

TOR1416

Ended last season at 1564 → started this one at 1548
First 51 games: −116.1
Last 10 games: −16.0

WHOU107–104+4.8
LCLE95–119−9.5
LSAS99–122−33.5
LIND125–127−3.9
WBKN121–93+19.1
W@ATL123–121+6.3
W@IND130–122+16.2
LDAL125–136−9.7
LGSW105–120−9.2
WCHA111–106+3.4

Season scoring marginNOP+4.5TOR−3.2

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

NOP+4.5

Scores 116.2, allows 111.7 over 61 games: +4.5 a game.

TOR−3.2

Scores 114.4, allows 117.6 over 61 games: −3.2 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10NOP114.6TOR111.5

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.0).

NOP114.6scored, −0.4 vs league

Factor	NOP	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.8%	54.8%	+1.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.4%	11.6%	−1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.1%	24.2%	+0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.185	0.199	−0.4
Everything else			−0.7

TOR111.5scored, −3.5 vs league

Factor	TOR	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.2%	54.8%	−3.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.9%	11.6%	+0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.8%	24.2%	+0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.166	0.199	−0.9
Everything else			−0.3

Defensive rating, last 10NOP109.2TOR114.2

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.0).

NOP109.2allowed, −5.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.6%	54.8%	+3.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.7%	11.6%	+1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.4%	24.2%	−0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.177	0.199	+0.6
Everything else			+0.2

TOR114.2allowed, −0.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.7%	54.8%	+0.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.0%	11.6%	+0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.5%	24.2%	−0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.162	0.199	+1.1
Everything else			−0.6

Pace, last 10average 100.4

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

NOP 98.4 and TOR 102.5 → average 100.4 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.6)

Rotation points missingNOP0.0TOR37.4

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

NOP0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-03-05 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

TOR37.4pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Scottie Barnes	17.9	32.9	9
Jakob Poeltl	12.2	25.0	10
Bruce Brown	7.3	24.1	9

Source: official injury report, 2024-03-05 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestNOP4 daysTOR2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

NOP4days

Last played Mar 1 against IND.

TOR2days

Last played Mar 3 against CHA.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

NOP

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 1	IND	129–102	48-86	15-32	18-26	17	11	126.5	100.0	102.0
Feb 28	@IND	114–123	42-90	11-29	19-23	10	7	112.9	121.8	101.0
Feb 27	@NYK	115–92	39-77	18-34	19-23	14	10	125.0	101.1	91.5
Feb 25	CHI	106–114	40-88	16-41	10-14	19	12	106.0	111.8	101.0
Feb 23	MIA	95–106	39-104	7-32	10-13	11	18	99.0	109.3	96.5
Feb 22	HOU	127–105	50-96	16-41	11-18	13	9	121.0	100.0	105.0
Feb 14	WAS	133–126	50-89	10-32	23-29	10	8	127.9	122.3	103.5
Feb 12	@MEM	96–87	32-78	13-35	19-24	17	12	100.0	90.6	96.0
Feb 10	@POR	93–84	36-76	10-27	11-16	12	8	106.9	97.7	86.5
Feb 9	@LAL	122–139	46-89	11-29	19-23	13	10	120.8	137.6	101.0

TOR

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 3	CHA	111–106	42-91	13-38	14-18	14	9	106.7	101.9	104.0
Mar 1	GSW	105–120	41-95	12-45	11-17	14	11	101.0	114.3	104.5
Feb 28	DAL	125–136	46-98	13-35	20-30	11	12	116.8	127.1	107.0
Feb 26	@IND	130–122	53-96	12-28	12-17	11	12	127.5	120.8	101.5
Feb 23	@ATL	123–121	50-102	15-39	8-8	11	11	121.8	119.8	101.0
Feb 22	BKN	121–93	41-84	14-31	25-30	10	7	118.6	91.2	102.0
Feb 14	IND	125–127	50-98	6-26	19-26	15	15	119.0	119.8	105.5
Feb 12	SAS	99–122	39-98	8-31	13-16	19	16	91.7	111.9	108.5
Feb 10	CLE	95–119	35-87	9-31	16-23	11	12	101.1	129.3	93.0
Feb 9	HOU	107–104	40-95	10-33	17-19	11	16	110.3	106.1	97.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games

61%

pregame chance the forecast gave NOP, the winner

NOP was the forecast favorite

33 pts

margin miss

forecast −8, actual −41 for TOR

893rd

most surprising result of 2023-24

of 1,312 graded games

38th

largest margin miss of 2023-24

outcome surprise 0.49 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	NOP	TOR
Final score	139	98
Field goals	53–105 · 50.5%	36–93 · 38.7%
Three-pointers	24–49 · 49.0%	13–44 · 29.5%
Free throws	9–11 · 81.8%	13–22 · 59.1%
Rebounds	62	45
Assists	38	21
Turnovers	11	11
Steals	9	6
Blocks	5	7

How the model does with these teams over time: New Orleans Pelicans · Toronto Raptors

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (TOR)	−8	−41	−33
Total points	232	237	+5
NOP points	120	139	+19
TOR points	112	98	−14

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
NOP	42	26	38	33	–	139
TOR	28	17	31	22	–	98

Recent form before this game