2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Portland Trail Blazers at Toronto Raptors

Monday, October 30, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

POR 0–0@TOR 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
POR Portland Trail Blazers	107	99	−8
TOR Toronto Raptors (home)	116	91	−25

Forecast: Toronto Raptors to win, 72% win probability, projected margin 9.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	POR	TOR
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1347	1538
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+262
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−5.7	+1.0
Games played this season	3	3
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	104.4	112.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	122.0	108.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	99.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	7.3	7.3
Rest days	1	2
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPOR1347TOR1538

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

POR1347

Ended last season at 1315 → started this one at 1362
This season's 3 games: −14.8

L@LAC111–123−4.3
LORL97–102−5.9
L@PHI98–126−4.6

TOR1538

Ended last season at 1564 → started this one at 1548
This season's 3 games: −9.4

WMIN97–94+3.5
L@CHI103–104−3.6
LPHI107–114−9.3

Season scoring marginPOR−5.7TOR+1.0

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

POR−5.7

Scores 102.0, allows 117.0 over 3 games: −15.0 a game.

15% this season (−15.0) + 85% last season (−4.0) = −5.7

TOR+1.0

Scores 102.3, allows 104.0 over 3 games: −1.7 a game.

15% this season (−1.7) + 85% last season (+1.5) = +1.0

Offensive rating, last 10POR104.4TOR112.6

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23: 114.0).

POR104.4scored, −9.6 vs league

Factor	POR	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.0%	54.6%	−6.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.9%	11.9%	+0.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.8%	23.8%	−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.160	0.210	−1.4
Everything else			−0.4

TOR112.6scored, −1.5 vs league

Factor	TOR	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.3%	54.6%	−3.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.0%	11.9%	+2.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.2%	23.8%	+0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.152	0.210	−1.7
Everything else			+0.3

Defensive rating, last 10POR122.0TOR108.7

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23: 114.0).

POR122.0allowed, +8.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	59.2%	54.6%	−7.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.1%	11.9%	+0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.0%	23.8%	−1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.224	0.210	−0.4
Everything else			+0.6

TOR108.7allowed, −5.4 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.6%	54.6%	+3.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.0%	11.9%	+2.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.3%	23.8%	−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.198	0.210	+0.3
Everything else			−0.2

Pace, last 10average 99.3

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

POR 102.5 and TOR 96.0 → average 99.3 (league 2022-23: 99.6)

Rotation points missingPOR7.3TOR7.3

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

POR7.3pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Robert Williams III	7.3	23.0	3

Source: official injury report, 2023-10-30 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

TOR7.3pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Precious Achiuwa	7.3	21.7	3

Source: official injury report, 2023-10-30 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestPOR1 daysTOR2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

POR1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 29 against PHI.

TOR2days

Last played Oct 28 against PHI.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

POR

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 29	@PHI	98–126	36-94	7-31	19-22	15	14	95.1	122.3	103.0
Oct 27	ORL	97–102	35-88	9-32	18-21	16	15	101.0	106.3	96.0
Oct 25	@LAC	111–123	44-93	10-32	13-17	17	15	112.1	124.2	99.0
Apr 9	GSW	101–157	38-95	9-35	16-24	14	6	90.2	141.4	111.5
Apr 8	@LAC	125–136	47-89	14-32	17-23	10	7	121.4	132.0	103.0
Apr 6	@SAS	127–129	51-96	10-28	15-18	15	8	117.6	119.4	108.0
Apr 4	@MEM	109–119	42-97	14-42	11-17	8	13	106.9	116.7	102.0
Apr 2	@MIN	107–105	43-93	9-30	12-20	10	11	108.1	106.1	99.0
Mar 31	SAC	114–138	40-85	19-38	15-23	18	9	114.0	135.3	101.0
Mar 29	SAC	80–120	30-93	9-39	11-12	14	8	77.7	116.5	103.0

TOR

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 28	PHI	107–114	38-87	17-32	14-19	13	13	116.3	121.3	93.0
Oct 27	@CHI	103–104	39-84	9-36	16-25	21	8	94.5	95.4	98.7
Oct 25	MIN	97–94	36-90	14-35	11-16	14	8	96.0	93.1	101.0
Apr 9	MIL	121–105	48-95	11-33	14-16	9	7	119.8	104.0	101.0
Apr 7	@BOS	102–121	40-93	9-31	13-17	7	12	106.3	127.4	95.5
Apr 5	@BOS	93–97	37-90	6-33	13-17	11	13	95.9	100.0	97.0
Apr 4	@CHA	120–100	42-88	15-33	21-28	6	10	126.3	104.2	95.5
Apr 2	@CHA	128–108	56-104	8-28	8-8	7	15	132.0	111.3	97.0
Mar 31	@PHI	110–117	42-84	8-26	18-23	13	14	122.2	130.0	90.0
Mar 28	MIA	106–92	45-93	8-36	8-9	9	15	116.5	100.0	91.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games

28%

pregame chance the forecast gave POR, the winner

the forecast favored TOR

17 pts

margin miss

forecast +9, actual −8 for TOR

23rd

most surprising result of 2023-24

of 1,312 graded games

289th

largest margin miss of 2023-24

outcome surprise 1.26 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	POR	TOR
Final score	99	91
Field goals	38–85 · 44.7%	38–94 · 40.4%
Three-pointers	11–35 · 31.4%	4–29 · 13.8%
Free throws	12–15 · 80.0%	11–15 · 73.3%
Rebounds	51	47
Assists	20	19
Turnovers	14	11
Steals	6	10
Blocks	7	4

How the model does with these teams over time: Portland Trail Blazers · Toronto Raptors

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (TOR)	+9	−8	−17
Total points	223	190	−33
POR points	107	99	−8
TOR points	116	91	−25

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
POR	21	26	33	19	–	99
TOR	25	25	24	17	–	91

Recent form before this game