The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 29

2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Toronto Raptors at Charlotte Hornets

Saturday, November 29, 2025 · tip-off 6:00 PM ET

TOR 1–0@CHA 2–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: TOR 74 percent, CHA 26 percent. TOR Raptors 74% proj. 119 · final 111 CHA Hornets · home 26% proj. 110 · final 118
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
TOR Toronto Raptors 119 111 −8
CHA Charlotte Hornets (home) 110 118 +8

Forecast: Toronto Raptors to win, 74% win probability, projected margin 9.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputTORCHA
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15521315
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −166
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +6.1−5.1
Games played this season 1919
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 118.5113.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 109.2121.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 99.4
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 18.00.0
Rest days 31
Second night of a back-to-back NoYes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingTOR1552CHA1315

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

TOR1552

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1394 → started this one at 1420
  2. First 9 games: +65.9
  3. Last 10 games: +65.4
  • L@PHI120–130−11.4
  • W@BKN119–109+6.7
  • W@CLE126–113+23.5
  • W@IND129–111+17.1
  • WCHA110–108+1.4
  • W@PHI121–112+8.1
  • WWAS140–110+3.5
  • WBKN119–109+2.8
  • WCLE110–99+11.5
  • WIND97–95+2.2

CHA1315

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1237 → started this one at 1303
  2. First 9 games: +18.5
  3. Last 10 games: −5.8
  • LLAL111–121−5.1
  • WMIL111–100+18.1
  • L@MIL134–147−3.6
  • LOKC96–109−2.2
  • L@TOR108–110−1.4
  • L@IND118–127−4.3
  • LLAC116–131−9.1
  • L@ATL110–113−1.4
  • LNYK101–129−8.8
  • WCHI123–116+12.0
Season scoring marginTOR+6.1CHA−5.1

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

TOR+6.1

Scores 119.2, allows 112.5 over 19 games: +6.7 a game.

95% this season (+6.7) + 5% last season (−4.3) = +6.1

CHA−5.1

Scores 115.7, allows 120.6 over 19 games: −4.9 a game.

95% this season (−4.9) + 5% last season (−9.1) = −5.1

Offensive rating, last 10TOR118.5CHA113.3

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).

TOR118.5scored, +3.7 vs league

FactorTORLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.4%54.5%+2.9
Turnovers (TOV%)11.2%12.6%+1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.7%26.2%−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2370.226+0.3
Everything else−0.8

CHA113.3scored, −1.4 vs league

FactorCHALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.3%54.5%−3.2
Turnovers (TOV%)12.6%12.6%−0.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.8%26.2%+0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2200.226−0.2
Everything else+1.3
Defensive rating, last 10TOR109.2CHA121.3

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).

TOR109.2allowed, −5.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.8%54.5%+4.0
Turnovers (TOV%)13.9%12.6%+1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.7%26.2%+1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2480.226−0.6
Everything else−1.3

CHA121.3allowed, +6.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)59.5%54.5%−7.7
Turnovers (TOV%)11.5%12.6%−1.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.1%26.2%+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1630.226+1.8
Everything else−0.1
Pace, last 10average 99.4

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

TOR 100.5 and CHA 98.3 → average 99.4 (league 2025-26 to date: 101.1)

Rotation points missingTOR18.0CHA0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

TOR18.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
RJ Barrett18.029.28

Source: official injury report, 2025-11-29 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

CHA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-11-29 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestTOR3 daysCHA1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

TOR3days

Last played Nov 26 against IND.

CHA1day, back-to-back

Last played Nov 28 against CHI.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

TOR

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 26IND97–9535-905-2622-27131296.094.1101.0
Nov 24CLE110–9944-9010-3612-181510107.898.0101.5
Nov 23BKN119–10939-8415-3026-2996125.3116.094.5
Nov 21WAS140–11048-8314-2830-391413133.3105.8104.5
Nov 19@PHI121–11245-8411-2920-24148123.5114.398.0
Nov 17CHA110–10844-8810-2512-16178107.8103.8103.0
Nov 15@IND129–11148-877-3026-42128120.6102.8107.5
Nov 13@CLE126–11349-8812-3116-171311129.9116.597.0
Nov 11@BKN119–10945-919-3520-25813122.7113.596.5
Nov 8@PHI120–13041-9016-3822-281010117.6127.5102.0

CHA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 28CHI123–11644-9715-4520-241210115.0109.4106.5
Nov 26NYK101–12935-8513-4318-24179104.1131.697.5
Nov 23@ATL110–11339-8614-4418-20159115.8118.995.0
Nov 22LAC116–13141-8511-3623-261011120.8135.196.5
Nov 19@IND118–12743-10713-4519-221222118.0127.0100.0
Nov 17@TOR108–11037-8710-4024-301614103.8107.8103.0
Nov 15OKC96–10937-9616-426-71212100.0113.596.0
Nov 14@MIL134–14747-9817-4523-291310119.6134.9100.1
Nov 12MIL111–10038-8612-4023-271315118.1107.593.5
Nov 10LAL111–12137-7117-3620-22229118.1127.494.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games
27%
pregame chance the forecast gave CHA, the winner
the forecast favored TOR
16 pts
margin miss
forecast −9, actual +7 for CHA
61st
most surprising result of 2025-26
of 1,309 graded games
324th
largest margin miss of 2025-26
outcome surprise 1.33 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statTORCHA
Final score111118
Field goals44–99 · 44.4%41–93 · 44.1%
Three-pointers9–29 · 31.0%10–39 · 25.6%
Free throws14–17 · 82.4%26–29 · 89.7%
Rebounds5239
Assists3424
Turnovers159
Steals610
Blocks35

How the model does with these teams over time: Toronto Raptors · Charlotte Hornets

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (CHA)−9+7+16
Total points229229±0
TOR points119111−8
CHA points110118+8

Recent form before this game

Toronto Raptors

DateOpponentResult
Nov 26 vs IND W 97–95
Nov 24 vs CLE W 110–99
Nov 23 vs BKN W 119–109
Nov 21 vs WAS W 140–110
Nov 19 at PHI W 121–112

Charlotte Hornets

DateOpponentResult
Nov 28 vs CHI W 123–116
Nov 26 vs NYK L 101–129
Nov 23 at ATL L 110–113
Nov 22 vs LAC L 116–131
Nov 19 at IND L 118–127

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Nov 17 2025-26 CHA at TOR CHA 108 – 110 TOR
Apr 9 2024-25 CHA at TOR CHA 96 – 126 TOR
Mar 28 2024-25 CHA at TOR CHA 97 – 108 TOR
Oct 30 2024-25 TOR at CHA TOR 133 – 138 CHA
Mar 3 2023-24 CHA at TOR CHA 106 – 111 TOR