The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Dec 31

2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Toronto Raptors at Boston Celtics

Tuesday, December 31, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

TOR 0–0@BOS 0–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: TOR 15 percent, BOS 85 percent. TOR Raptors 15% proj. 110 · final 71 BOS Celtics · home 85% proj. 126 · final 125
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
TOR Toronto Raptors 110 71 −39
BOS Boston Celtics (home) 126 125 −1

Forecast: Boston Celtics to win, 85% win probability, projected margin 16.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputTORBOS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13301665
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +405
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −6.8+9.4
Games played this season 3232
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 105.9117.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 119.5109.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 102.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 38.816.7
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingTOR1330BOS1665

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

TOR1330

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1301 → started this one at 1350
  2. First 22 games: +39.4
  3. Last 10 games: −59.6
  • LOKC92–129−9.6
  • LDAL118–125−3.5
  • LNYK108–113−3.9
  • L@MIA104–114−3.3
  • LCHI121–122−3.9
  • LBKN94–101−9.3
  • LHOU110–114−3.1
  • L@NYK125–139−2.6
  • L@MEM126–155−5.4
  • LATL107–136−15.0

BOS1665

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1742 → started this one at 1682
  2. First 22 games: +37.6
  3. Last 10 games: −54.2
  • WMIL111–105+2.0
  • LMEM121–127−16.4
  • WDET123–99+3.0
  • W@WAS112–98+2.0
  • LCHI108–117−22.8
  • W@CHI123–98+10.6
  • L@ORL104–108−8.0
  • LPHI114–118−14.5
  • WIND142–105+9.3
  • LIND114–123−19.4
Season scoring marginTOR−6.8BOS+9.4

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

TOR−6.8

Scores 112.3, allows 119.1 over 32 games: −6.8 a game.

BOS+9.4

Scores 119.5, allows 110.1 over 32 games: +9.4 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10TOR105.9BOS117.1

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.5).

TOR105.9scored, −6.6 vs league

FactorTORLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.7%54.1%−3.6
Turnovers (TOV%)14.2%12.5%−2.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.9%24.6%−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1850.196−0.3
Everything else+0.0

BOS117.1scored, +4.6 vs league

FactorBOSLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.4%54.1%+0.4
Turnovers (TOV%)10.1%12.5%+3.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.8%24.6%+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1670.196−0.8
Everything else+1.0
Defensive rating, last 10TOR119.5BOS109.4

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.5).

TOR119.5allowed, +7.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.8%54.1%−4.1
Turnovers (TOV%)12.1%12.5%−0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.3%24.6%−1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2490.196−1.5
Everything else+0.9

BOS109.4allowed, −3.1 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.4%54.1%+4.1
Turnovers (TOV%)10.2%12.5%−3.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.9%24.6%+1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1640.196+0.9
Everything else+0.2
Pace, last 10average 102.3

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

TOR 104.3 and BOS 100.3 → average 102.3 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.9)

Rotation points missingTOR38.8BOS16.7

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

TOR38.8pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
RJ Barrett22.133.08
Gradey Dick16.729.710

Source: official injury report, 2024-12-31 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

BOS16.7pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Kristaps Porziņģis16.727.27

Source: official injury report, 2024-12-31 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestTOR2 daysBOS2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

TOR2days

Last played Dec 29 against ATL.

BOS2days

Last played Dec 29 against IND.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

TOR

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 29ATL107–13638-857-2424-27311598.2123.6109.5
Dec 26@MEM126–15549-10814-4314-181511111.5137.2113.0
Dec 23@NYK125–13942-7711-2830-37154117.9132.4105.5
Dec 22HOU110–11442-9217-439-132111102.8108.6106.0
Dec 19BKN94–10134-8615-4411-141210101.1109.892.5
Dec 16CHI121–12245-929-2622-301810112.0110.9109.0
Dec 12@MIA104–11441-9211-3211-15119103.0112.9101.0
Dec 9NYK108–11343-9613-359-111217110.2118.996.5
Dec 7DAL118–12543-9315-3917-18138113.5117.9105.0
Dec 5OKC92–12932-9011-4517-20201288.5122.9104.5

BOS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 29IND114–12343-9316-5412-1988116.3124.298.5
Dec 27IND142–10547-9223-5625-291018144.9108.297.5
Dec 25PHI114–11843-9520-498-131313117.5122.996.5
Dec 23@ORL104–10837-848-3322-27188100.0102.9104.5
Dec 21@CHI123–9848-10015-4512-141217120.696.1102.0
Dec 19CHI108–11738-9714-5618-21411110.2119.498.0
Dec 15@WAS112–9840-9318-4614-241815109.894.2103.0
Dec 12DET123–9946-9020-4811-13148123.098.0100.5
Dec 7MEM121–12742-10518-6019-281315111.0117.6108.5
Dec 6MIL111–10540-8717-5314-1667118.1110.594.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games
85%
pregame chance the forecast gave BOS, the winner
BOS was the forecast favorite
38 pts
margin miss
forecast +16, actual +54 for BOS
1278th
most surprising result of 2024-25
of 1,309 graded games
14th
largest margin miss of 2024-25
outcome surprise 0.16 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statTORBOS
Final score71125
Field goals27–86 · 31.4%47–87 · 54.0%
Three-pointers10–40 · 25.0%22–43 · 51.2%
Free throws7–11 · 63.6%9–15 · 60.0%
Rebounds4449
Assists1829
Turnovers2113
Steals814
Blocks47

How the model does with these teams over time: Toronto Raptors · Boston Celtics

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (BOS)+16+54+38
Total points236196−40
TOR points11071−39
BOS points126125−1

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
TOR12231818–71
BOS23224535–125

Recent form before this game

Toronto Raptors

DateOpponentResult
Dec 29 vs ATL L 107–136
Dec 26 at MEM L 126–155
Dec 23 at NYK L 125–139
Dec 22 vs HOU L 110–114
Dec 19 vs BKN L 94–101

Boston Celtics

DateOpponentResult
Dec 29 vs IND L 114–123
Dec 27 vs IND W 142–105
Dec 25 vs PHI L 114–118
Dec 23 at ORL L 104–108
Dec 21 at CHI W 123–98

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Nov 16 2024-25 TOR at BOS TOR 123 – 126 BOS
Jan 15 2023-24 BOS at TOR BOS 105 – 96 TOR
Dec 29 2023-24 TOR at BOS TOR 118 – 120 BOS
Nov 17 2023-24 BOS at TOR BOS 108 – 105 TOR
Nov 11 2023-24 TOR at BOS TOR 94 – 117 BOS