The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 23

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards

Friday, October 23, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

TOR 1–0@WAS 1–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: TOR 64 percent, WAS 36 percent. TOR Raptors 64% proj. 123 · final 112 WAS Wizards · home 36% proj. 118 · final 102
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
TOR Toronto Raptors 123 112 −11
WAS Washington Wizards (home) 118 102 −16

Forecast: Toronto Raptors to win, 64% win probability, projected margin 5.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans TOR

  • Home court+2.1 WASWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+7.9 TORElo WAS 1293, TOR 1551; season margin WAS −10.8, TOR +4.5.

Together: TOR by 5, a 64% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

TOR is 1–0, winning by 43 a game on average (scoring 135, allowing 92). Last season they were a +2 team, which still counts for 95% of their season margin. Their offense is close to league average on all four factors. Their defense forces turnovers on 14.3% of opponent possessions (league 12.2%), which alone adds about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting defense +3, free throws allowed −1.3.

WAS is 1–0, winning by 12 a game on average (scoring 128, allowing 116). Last season they were a −12 team, which still counts for 95% of their season margin. Their offense rebounds 17% of its own misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting −2.5. Their defense lets opponents shoot 61% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 10 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding −2.7.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors WAS; left favors TOR.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −7.9, Player availability +0.3, No playoff context +0.2, Rest and schedule −0.1, Recent form −0.0, giving −5.4 for WAS. -8-40+4+8 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −7.9 Player availability +0.3 No playoff context +0.2 Rest and schedule −0.1 Recent form −0.0 Projected margin −5.4
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin −5.4. The 64% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputTORWASEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15511293 −0.8
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −188 −5.9
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +4.5−10.8 −1.7
Games played this season 11 +0.5
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 114.5109.8 −0.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 109.4125.6 −0.8
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 101.1 +0.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0 +0.3
Rest days 22 −0.1
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueWAS ptsTOR ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court-187.7−1.68+4.25−5.92
Season scoring margin (home)-10.8−0.56+0.67−1.23
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)109.4−1.16−0.14−1.02
Elo rating (home)1292.9−0.19+0.77−0.96
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.77−0.17+0.93
Combined pace, last 10101.1+3.54+2.69+0.85
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.18+0.50−0.67
Games played (home)1.0+0.75+0.11+0.64
Season scoring margin (away)4.5−0.32+0.15−0.47
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)109.8−0.54−0.12−0.42
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)114.5+0.09−0.22+0.32
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)125.6+2.19+1.96+0.23
Home series wins0.0+0.25+0.07+0.17
Elo rating (away)1550.6+0.20+0.05+0.15
Games played (away)1.0+0.13+0.25−0.12
Rest days (home)2.0−0.05+0.01−0.06
Series pressure0.0+0.06+0.00+0.06
Back-to-back (home)0+0.04−0.00+0.04
Rest days (away)2.0−0.02+0.01−0.03
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingTOR1551WAS12936.7 pts toward TOR

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

TOR1551

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1554 → started this one at 1541
  2. This season's 1 game: +10.0
  • WCHI135–92+10.0

WAS1293

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1206 → started this one at 1280
  2. This season's 1 game: +13.1
  • WMIL128–116+13.1
Season scoring marginTOR+4.5WAS−10.81.2 pts toward TOR

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

TOR+4.5

Scores 135.0, allows 92.0 over 1 game: +43.0 a game.

5% this season (+43.0) + 95% last season (+2.5) = +4.5

WAS−10.8

Scores 128.0, allows 116.0 over 1 game: +12.0 a game.

5% this season (+12.0) + 95% last season (−12.0) = −10.8

Offensive rating, last 10TOR114.5WAS109.80.1 pts toward TOR

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

TOR114.5scored, −0.1 vs league

FactorTORLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.9%54.5%+0.6
Turnovers (TOV%)12.7%12.2%−0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.9%26.1%−0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2390.210+0.8
Everything else−0.2

WAS109.8scored, −4.8 vs league

FactorWASLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.9%54.5%−2.5
Turnovers (TOV%)12.0%12.2%+0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)17.0%26.1%−4.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1950.210−0.4
Everything else+1.9
Defensive rating, last 10TOR109.4WAS125.60.8 pts toward TOR

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

TOR109.4allowed, −5.2 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.5%54.5%+3.1
Turnovers (TOV%)14.3%12.2%+3.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.6%26.1%−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2570.210−1.3
Everything else+1.1

WAS125.6allowed, +11.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)61.0%54.5%−9.8
Turnovers (TOV%)12.6%12.2%+0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)32.0%26.1%−2.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2390.210−0.8
Everything else+1.7
Pace, last 10average 101.10.9 pts toward WAS

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

TOR 98.5 and WAS 103.8 → average 101.1 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingTOR0.0WAS0.00.3 pts toward WAS

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

TOR0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-23 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

WAS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-23 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestTOR2 daysWAS2 days0.1 pts toward TOR

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

TOR2days

Last played Oct 21 against CHI.

WAS2days

Last played Oct 21 against MIL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

TOR

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 21CHI135–9244-9810-3137-461016122.782.1111.0
May 3@CLE102–11438-878-2818-26147104.1116.398.0
May 1CLE112–11040-8713-3619-231510110.9107.891.9
Apr 29@CLE120–12544-9515-3817-251415118.8122.5101.5
Apr 26CLE93–8931-974-3027-36112194.991.897.5
Apr 23CLE126–10450-8714-2312-211111132.6108.395.5
Apr 20@CLE105–11542-837-2614-172212107.1116.298.5
Apr 18@CLE113–12637-7113-2726-35174115.3127.398.5
Apr 12BKN136–10151-8012-2722-29103136.0101.0100.0
Apr 10@NYK95–11236-7310-2513-20177102.2120.493.0

WAS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 21MIL128–11645-866-2832-411112123.1112.6103.5
Apr 12@CLE117–13042-9018-4115-19125117.0128.7100.5
Apr 10MIA117–14046-9214-3111-14134113.6135.9103.0
Apr 9CHI108–11938-9610-3822-271710100.9111.2107.0
Apr 7CHI98–12937-8611-3813-2121389.9119.4108.5
Apr 5@BKN115–12144-799-2518-28204116.2122.299.0
Apr 4@MIA136–15250-10617-4019-24913125.9142.1107.5
Apr 1PHI131–15350-9616-4015-17117124.8147.1104.5
Mar 30@LAL101–12041-937-3512-1695101.0117.6101.0
Mar 29@POR88–12332-875-2219-2215285.4119.4103.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
64%
pregame chance the forecast gave TOR, the winner
TOR was the forecast favorite
5 pts
margin miss
forecast −5, actual −10 for WAS
87th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
102nd
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.44 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statTORWAS
Final score112102
Field goals44–101 · 43.6%30–79 · 38.0%
Three-pointers7–34 · 20.6%12–37 · 32.4%
Free throws17–21 · 81.0%30–35 · 85.7%
Rebounds5340
Assists2521
Turnovers1620
Steals1210
Blocks65

How the model does with these teams over time: Toronto Raptors · Washington Wizards

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (WAS)−5−10−5
Total points241214−27
TOR points123112−11
WAS points118102−16

Recent form before this game

Toronto Raptors

DateOpponentResult
Oct 21 vs CHI W 135–92
May 3 at CLE L 102–114
May 1 vs CLE W 112–110
Apr 29 at CLE L 120–125
Apr 26 vs CLE W 93–89

Washington Wizards

DateOpponentResult
Oct 21 vs MIL W 128–116
Apr 12 at CLE L 117–130
Apr 10 vs MIA L 117–140
Apr 9 vs CHI L 108–119
Apr 7 vs CHI L 98–129

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Feb 28 2025-26 TOR at WAS TOR 134 – 125 WAS
Dec 26 2025-26 TOR at WAS TOR 117 – 138 WAS
Nov 21 2025-26 WAS at TOR WAS 110 – 140 TOR
Mar 24 2024-25 TOR at WAS TOR 112 – 104 WAS
Mar 10 2024-25 WAS at TOR WAS 104 – 119 TOR