2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat

Monday, December 15, 2025 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET

TOR 1–2@MIA 2–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
TOR Toronto Raptors	110	106	−4
MIA Miami Heat (home)	118	96	−22

Forecast: Miami Heat to win, 71% win probability, projected margin 8.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	TOR	MIA
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1465	1519
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+124
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+1.9	+3.5
Games played this season	26	25
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	109.1	114.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	114.9	111.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	100.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	6.3
Rest days	5	5
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingTOR1465MIA1519

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

TOR1465

Ended last season at 1394 → started this one at 1420
First 16 games: +114.8
Last 10 games: −69.8

WBKN119–109+2.8
WCLE110–99+11.5
WIND97–95+2.2
L@CHA111–118−14.0
L@NYK94–116−10.5
WPOR121–118+3.6
LLAL120–123−6.1
LCHA86–111−41.0
LBOS113–121−7.3
LNYK101–117−11.0

MIA1519

Ended last season at 1462 → started this one at 1472
First 15 games: +52.5
Last 10 games: −4.6

W@CHI143–107+32.7
W@PHI127–117+7.8
WDAL106–102+2.0
WMIL106–103+2.6
LDET135–138−6.6
WLAC140–123+7.2
L@DAL108–118−14.0
L@ORL105–106−2.9
LSAC111–127−27.2
L@ORL108–117−6.2

Season scoring marginTOR+1.9MIA+3.5

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

TOR+1.9

Scores 115.8, allows 113.9 over 26 games: +1.9 a game.

MIA+3.5

Scores 121.7, allows 118.2 over 25 games: +3.5 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10TOR109.1MIA114.0

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.9).

TOR109.1scored, −5.9 vs league

Factor	TOR	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.1%	54.6%	−5.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.9%	12.4%	−0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.171	0.222	−1.4
Everything else			+1.5

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 7 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

MIA114.0scored, −0.9 vs league

Factor	MIA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.3%	54.6%	−1.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.7%	12.4%	+2.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.222	0.222	+0.0
Everything else			−1.4

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 6 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Defensive rating, last 10TOR114.9MIA111.6

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.9).

TOR114.9allowed, −0.1 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.5%	54.6%	−1.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.6%	12.4%	+1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.228	0.222	−0.2
Everything else			+0.0

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 7 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

MIA111.6allowed, −3.4 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.6%	54.6%	+1.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.1%	12.4%	−0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.173	0.222	+1.4
Everything else			+0.8

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 6 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Pace, last 10average 100.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

TOR 97.5 and MIA 103.9 → average 100.7 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.9)

Rotation points missingTOR0.0MIA6.3

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

TOR0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-12-15 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

MIA6.3pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Pelle Larsson	6.3	21.3	9

Source: official injury report, 2025-12-15 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestTOR5 daysMIA5 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

TOR5days

Last played Dec 9 against NYK (6 days, capped at 5).

MIA5days

Last played Dec 9 against ORL (6 days, capped at 5).

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

TOR

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Dec 9	NYK	101–117	39-90	11-38	12-18	13	–	107.4	124.5	94.0
Dec 7	BOS	113–121	43-88	9-22	18-21	12	–	117.7	126.0	96.0
Dec 5	CHA	86–111	34-92	9-29	9-13	19	–	83.5	107.8	103.0
Dec 4	LAL	120–123	44-89	15-37	17-21	15	–	127.7	132.3	93.5
Dec 2	POR	121–118	48-90	11-30	14-21	18	–	118.6	113.5	103.0
Nov 30	@NYK	94–116	37-88	11-37	9-17	18	–	96.9	118.4	97.5
Nov 29	@CHA	111–118	44-99	9-29	14-17	15	–	109.9	118.0	91.0
Nov 26	IND	97–95	35-90	5-26	22-27	13	12	96.0	94.1	101.0
Nov 24	CLE	110–99	44-90	10-36	12-18	15	10	107.8	98.0	101.5
Nov 23	BKN	119–109	39-84	15-30	26-29	9	6	125.3	116.0	94.5

MIA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Dec 9	@ORL	108–117	42-93	8-33	16-19	8	–	104.9	114.7	102.5
Dec 6	SAC	111–127	41-85	9-31	20-32	13	–	111.0	125.7	100.5
Dec 5	@ORL	105–106	40-80	7-19	18-27	15	–	102.9	105.0	101.5
Dec 3	@DAL	108–118	40-101	11-37	17-18	10	–	106.9	119.2	100.0
Dec 1	LAC	140–123	53-100	24-46	10-12	11	–	132.1	116.0	106.0
Nov 29	DET	135–138	44-88	14-29	33-39	17	–	121.6	124.3	111.0
Nov 26	MIL	106–103	39-85	10-36	18-20	14	9	103.9	103.0	101.0
Nov 24	DAL	106–102	42-94	5-27	17-24	13	14	105.0	100.0	101.5
Nov 23	@PHI	127–117	48-98	11-32	20-30	13	18	119.8	110.4	106.0
Nov 21	@CHI	143–107	47-100	14-38	35-44	10	15	132.4	97.3	109.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

29%

pregame chance the forecast gave TOR, the winner

the forecast favored MIA

18 pts

margin miss

forecast +8, actual −10 for MIA

66th

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

262nd

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 1.25 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	TOR	MIA
Final score	106	96
Field goals	42–88 · 47.7%	35–83 · 42.2%
Three-pointers	16–40 · 40.0%	9–31 · 29.0%
Free throws	6–9 · 66.7%	17–23 · 73.9%
Rebounds	45	45
Assists	33	20
Turnovers	19	18
Steals	9	12
Blocks	7	7

How the model does with these teams over time: Toronto Raptors · Miami Heat

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (MIA)	+8	−10	−18
Total points	228	202	−26
TOR points	110	106	−4
MIA points	118	96	−22

Recent form before this game

Toronto Raptors

Date	Opponent	Result
Dec 9	vs NYK	L 101–117
Dec 7	vs BOS	L 113–121
Dec 5	vs CHA	L 86–111
Dec 4	vs LAL	L 120–123
Dec 2	vs POR	W 121–118

Miami Heat

Date	Opponent	Result
Dec 9	at ORL	L 108–117
Dec 6	vs SAC	L 111–127
Dec 5	at ORL	L 105–106
Dec 3	at DAL	L 108–118
Dec 1	vs LAC	W 140–123

Previous meetings

Date	Matchup	Score
Feb 21 2024-25	MIA at TOR	MIA 120 – 111 TOR
Dec 12 2024-25	TOR at MIA	TOR 104 – 114 MIA
Dec 1 2024-25	MIA at TOR	MIA 116 – 119 TOR
Nov 29 2024-25	TOR at MIA	TOR 111 – 121 MIA
Apr 14 2023-24	TOR at MIA	TOR 103 – 118 MIA