The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 28

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors

Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET

ORL 1–2@TOR 2–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: ORL 33 percent, TOR 67 percent. ORL Magic 33% proj. 107 · final 99 TOR Raptors · home 67% proj. 113 · final 129
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
ORL Orlando Magic 107 99 −8
TOR Toronto Raptors (home) 113 129 +16

Forecast: Toronto Raptors to win, 67% win probability, projected margin 6.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans TOR

  • Home court+2.1 TORWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Player availability+1.5 TORORL without Paolo Banchero (25 ppg) and Jalen Suggs (8 ppg); TOR without Kawhi Leonard (20 ppg).
  • Recent form+1.1 TORLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: TOR scores 110.7 and allows 108.6; ORL scores 103.2 and allows 108.9.
  • Team strength+0.4 TORElo TOR 1544, ORL 1528; season margin TOR +3.6, ORL −0.6.

Together: TOR by 6, a 67% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

TOR is 2–1, winning by 10 a game on average (scoring 114, allowing 104). Last season they were a +2 team, which still counts for 85% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 51% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 5 points per 100 possessions. Their defense forces turnovers on 15.8% of opponent possessions (league 12.2%), which alone adds about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting defense +2.3, free throws allowed −1.4. Kawhi Leonard (20 ppg) is out.

ORL is 1–2, losing by 7 a game on average (scoring 110, allowing 116). Last season they were a ±0 team, which still counts for 85% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 48% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 9 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding −1.2, ball security −1.0. Their defense holds opponents to 50% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 7 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +2.1, defensive rebounding −1.4. Paolo Banchero and Jalen Suggs are out (32 rotation points a game combined).

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors TOR; left favors ORL.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Player availability +1.5, Recent form +1.1, Team strength +0.4, No playoff context +0.3, Rest and schedule +0.2, giving +5.6 for TOR. -8-40+4+8 Model baseline +2.1 Player availability +1.5 Recent form +1.1 Team strength +0.4 No playoff context +0.3 Rest and schedule +0.2 Projected margin +5.6
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +5.6. The 67% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputORLTOREffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15281544 +0.3
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +86 +0.2
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −0.6+3.6 +0.2
Games played this season 33 −0.4
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 103.2110.7 +0.8
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 108.9108.6 −0.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 98.9 +0.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 32.519.5 +1.5
Rest days 33 +0.2
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueTOR ptsORL ptsMargin
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)108.9−1.26−0.16−1.10
Rotation points missing (away)32.5−0.11−1.18+1.06
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)103.2−0.49−1.46+0.97
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)108.6−0.45−1.18+0.73
Combined pace, last 1098.9−0.42−1.11+0.69
Games played (away)3.0+0.29+0.90−0.61
Rotation points missing (home)19.5+0.47+0.04+0.43
Elo rating (home)1543.5+0.09−0.22+0.31
Season scoring margin (home)3.6+0.14−0.17+0.30
Home series wins0.0+0.28+0.05+0.24
Elo gap incl. home court86.0−0.42−0.65+0.22
Games played (home)3.0+0.43+0.21+0.22
Rest days (home)3.0+0.10−0.09+0.19
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)110.7−0.28−0.11−0.17
Season scoring margin (away)-0.6−0.09+0.04−0.13
Series pressure0.0+0.07+0.02+0.06
Elo rating (away)1527.5+0.01−0.02+0.03
Back-to-back (home)0+0.01−0.01+0.02
Rest days (away)3.0+0.01−0.00+0.01
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingORL1528TOR15440.6 pts toward TOR

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

ORL1528

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1550 → started this one at 1538
  2. This season's 3 games: −10.3
  • LATL125–132−11.1
  • LMIN93–115−19.0
  • W@NYK111–102+19.8

TOR1544

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1554 → started this one at 1541
  2. This season's 3 games: +3.0
  • WCHI135–92+10.0
  • W@WAS112–102+4.6
  • L@MIN94–117−11.6
Season scoring marginORL−0.6TOR+3.60.2 pts toward ORL

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

ORL−0.6

Scores 109.7, allows 116.3 over 3 games: −6.7 a game.

15% this season (−6.7) + 85% last season (+0.5) = −0.6

TOR+3.6

Scores 113.7, allows 103.7 over 3 games: +10.0 a game.

15% this season (+10.0) + 85% last season (+2.5) = +3.6

Offensive rating, last 10ORL103.2TOR110.70.8 pts toward TOR

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

ORL103.2scored, −11.4 vs league

FactorORLLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)48.3%54.5%−9.4
Turnovers (TOV%)12.9%12.2%−1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.3%26.1%−1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2380.210+0.8
Everything else−0.6

TOR110.7scored, −3.9 vs league

FactorTORLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.2%54.5%−5.0
Turnovers (TOV%)12.7%12.2%−0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.2%26.1%+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2260.210+0.4
Everything else+0.8
Defensive rating, last 10ORL108.9TOR108.60.4 pts toward ORL

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

ORL108.9allowed, −5.7 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.2%54.5%+6.6
Turnovers (TOV%)13.7%12.2%+2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.1%26.1%−1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2540.210−1.3
Everything else−0.3

TOR108.6allowed, −6.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.0%54.5%+2.3
Turnovers (TOV%)15.8%12.2%+5.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.2%26.1%−1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2600.210−1.4
Everything else+1.4
Pace, last 10average 98.90.7 pts toward TOR

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

ORL 98.0 and TOR 99.8 → average 98.9 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingORL32.5TOR19.51.5 pts toward TOR

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

ORL32.5pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Paolo Banchero24.533.82
Jalen Suggs8.033.43

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-28 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

TOR19.5pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Kawhi Leonard19.525.82

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-28 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestORL3 daysTOR3 days0.2 pts toward TOR

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

ORL3days

Last played Oct 25 against NYK.

TOR3days

Last played Oct 25 against MIN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

ORL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 25@NYK111–10238-8818-4217-211510112.1102.099.5
Oct 23MIN93–11537-848-3911-1916892.1113.9101.0
Oct 21ATL125–13241-8513-4030-39209114.7118.9110.0
May 3@DET94–11631-7510-3022-30139102.2126.192.0
May 1DET79–9327-789-3616-2110889.8105.788.0
Apr 29@DET109–11638-8017-3816-30168111.2120.897.0
Apr 27DET94–8830-929-3525-34101694.989.898.5
Apr 25DET113–10536-8915-3326-331414117.7109.496.0
Apr 22@DET83–9826-808-3223-32171383.899.099.0
Apr 19@DET112–10144-9010-3414-191211113.1103.198.5

TOR

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 25@MIN94–11735-9110-3814-21161495.9118.298.5
Oct 23@WAS112–10244-1017-3417-211619104.795.3107.0
Oct 21CHI135–9244-9810-3137-461016122.782.1111.0
May 3@CLE102–11438-878-2818-26147104.1116.398.0
May 1CLE112–11040-8713-3619-231510110.9107.891.9
Apr 29@CLE120–12544-9515-3817-251415118.8122.5101.5
Apr 26CLE93–8931-974-3027-36112194.991.897.5
Apr 23CLE126–10450-8714-2312-211111132.6108.395.5
Apr 20@CLE105–11542-837-2614-172212107.1116.298.5
Apr 18@CLE113–12637-7113-2726-35174115.3127.398.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
67%
pregame chance the forecast gave TOR, the winner
TOR was the forecast favorite
24 pts
margin miss
forecast +6, actual +30 for TOR
94th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
19th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.40 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statORLTOR
Final score99129
Field goals33–80 · 41.3%44–88 · 50.0%
Three-pointers10–35 · 28.6%15–35 · 42.9%
Free throws23–29 · 79.3%26–31 · 83.9%
Rebounds3445
Assists2233
Turnovers2014
Steals815
Blocks54

How the model does with these teams over time: Orlando Magic · Toronto Raptors

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (TOR)+6+30+24
Total points220228+8
ORL points10799−8
TOR points113129+16

Recent form before this game

Orlando Magic

DateOpponentResult
Oct 25 at NYK W 111–102
Oct 23 vs MIN L 93–115
Oct 21 vs ATL L 125–132
May 3 at DET L 94–116
May 1 vs DET L 79–93

Toronto Raptors

DateOpponentResult
Oct 25 at MIN L 94–117
Oct 23 at WAS W 112–102
Oct 21 vs CHI W 135–92
May 3 at CLE L 102–114
May 1 vs CLE W 112–110

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 29 2025-26 ORL at TOR ORL 87 – 139 TOR
Jan 30 2025-26 TOR at ORL TOR 120 – 130 ORL
Dec 29 2025-26 ORL at TOR ORL 106 – 107 TOR
Mar 4 2024-25 TOR at ORL TOR 114 – 113 ORL
Mar 2 2024-25 TOR at ORL TOR 104 – 102 ORL