2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Philadelphia 76ers at Detroit Pistons

Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

PHI 7–1@DET 6–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
PHI Philadelphia 76ers	106	112	+6
DET Detroit Pistons (home)	108	106	−2

Forecast: Detroit Pistons to win, 58% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

No saved inputs are stored with this game's forecast.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

42%

pregame chance the forecast gave PHI, the winner

the forecast favored DET

8 pts

margin miss

forecast +2, actual −6 for DET

34th

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

79th

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.87 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	PHI	DET
Final score	112	106
Field goals	39–86 · 45.3%	38–83 · 45.8%
Three-pointers	9–24 · 37.5%	12–34 · 35.3%
Free throws	25–28 · 89.3%	18–23 · 78.3%
Rebounds	48	40
Assists	23	25
Turnovers	12	12
Steals	6	5
Blocks	2	6

How the model does with these teams over time: Philadelphia 76ers · Detroit Pistons

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (DET)	+2	−6	−8
Total points	214	218	+4
PHI points	106	112	+6
DET points	108	106	−2

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-04 17:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.