The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Mar 17

2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Detroit Pistons at New Orleans Pelicans

Monday, March 17, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded

DET 3–2@NOP 1–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: DET 66 percent, NOP 34 percent. DET Pistons 66% proj. 121 · final 127 NOP Pelicans · home 34% proj. 114 · final 81
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
DET Detroit Pistons 121 127 +6
NOP New Orleans Pelicans (home) 114 81 −33

Forecast: Detroit Pistons to win, 66% win probability, projected margin 7.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputDETNOP
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15561349
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −137
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +1.7−8.2
Games played this season 6868
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 114.3115.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 108.7124.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.6
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDET1556NOP1349

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DET1556

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1296 → started this one at 1347
  2. First 58 games: +211.4
  3. Last 10 games: −1.7
  • WBOS117–97+21.2
  • LDEN119–134−15.2
  • WBKN115–94+4.6
  • W@UTA134–106+12.0
  • L@LAC115–123−9.0
  • L@GSW110–115−5.3
  • W@POR119–112+8.2
  • WWAS123–103+2.6
  • LWAS125–129−16.4
  • LOKC107–113−4.4

NOP1349

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1553 → started this one at 1540
  2. First 58 games: −175.0
  3. Last 10 games: −15.6
  • W@PHX124–116+14.9
  • L@PHX108–125−8.5
  • W@UTA128–121+10.9
  • L@LAL115–136−4.1
  • LHOU97–109−8.2
  • L@HOU117–146−7.1
  • LMEM104–107−3.0
  • WLAC127–120+11.9
  • LORL93–113−18.5
  • L@SAS115–119−3.9
Season scoring marginDET+1.7NOP−8.2

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DET+1.7

Scores 114.8, allows 113.2 over 68 games: +1.7 a game.

NOP−8.2

Scores 110.8, allows 119.0 over 68 games: −8.2 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10DET114.3NOP115.6

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.5).

DET114.3scored, +0.8 vs league

FactorDETLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.9%54.3%+2.5
Turnovers (TOV%)12.7%12.1%−0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.1%25.2%−0.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2260.194+0.9
Everything else−1.8

NOP115.6scored, +2.1 vs league

FactorNOPLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.4%54.3%+0.1
Turnovers (TOV%)11.6%12.1%+0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.8%25.2%+2.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1550.194−1.1
Everything else+0.3
Defensive rating, last 10DET108.7NOP124.3

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.5).

DET108.7allowed, −4.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.2%54.3%+3.2
Turnovers (TOV%)13.7%12.1%+2.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.6%25.2%+2.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2590.194−1.9
Everything else−0.7

NOP124.3allowed, +10.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)59.8%54.3%−8.4
Turnovers (TOV%)10.9%12.1%−1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.4%25.2%−1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1610.194+0.9
Everything else−0.7
Pace, last 10average 100.6

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DET 103.7 and NOP 97.5 → average 100.6 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingDET0.0NOP0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DET0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-03-17 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

NOP0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-03-17 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestDET2 daysNOP2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DET2days

Last played Mar 15 against OKC.

NOP2days

Last played Mar 15 against SAS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DET

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Mar 15OKC107–11342-8814-339-13176102.9107.6104.5
Mar 13WAS125–12939-8510-3037-43129115.7118.3108.5
Mar 11WAS123–10348-10416-3811-151216119.4100.0103.0
Mar 9@POR119–11243-879-2824-321312113.3107.7104.5
Mar 8@GSW110–11539-855-2327-362013104.8108.5105.5
Mar 5@LAC115–12345-8611-3514-19125119.8128.196.0
Mar 3@UTA134–10651-9211-4121-28138122.998.1108.5
Mar 1BKN115–9439-7212-2825-29236110.689.5104.5
Feb 28DEN119–13445-9912-3717-231013114.4128.8104.0
Feb 26BOS117–9747-8913-3310-171212119.4100.097.5

NOP

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Mar 15@SAS115–11946-9212-3511-111511115.0119.0100.0
Mar 13ORL93–11335-797-2516-21139102.2124.291.0
Mar 11LAC127–12047-8517-3116-181911129.6120.099.0
Mar 9MEM104–10735-8513-3421-271410108.3113.895.0
Mar 8@HOU117–14648-9912-349-161318114.7144.6101.5
Mar 6HOU97–10931-839-2726-331515100.0111.297.5
Mar 4@LAL115–13646-939-3414-21910116.2138.898.5
Mar 2@UTA128–12153-10215-447-131113125.5118.6102.0
Feb 28@PHX108–12544-8711-289-151413114.9133.094.0
Feb 27@PHX124–11650-10417-477-12616129.2119.696.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games
66%
pregame chance the forecast gave DET, the winner
DET was the forecast favorite
39 pts
margin miss
forecast −7, actual −46 for NOP
847th
most surprising result of 2024-25
of 1,309 graded games
12th
largest margin miss of 2024-25
outcome surprise 0.41 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statDETNOP
Final score12781
Field goals46–84 · 54.8%28–86 · 32.6%
Three-pointers13–35 · 37.1%5–32 · 15.6%
Free throws22–29 · 75.9%20–30 · 66.7%
Rebounds5039
Assists3318
Turnovers1316
Steals107
Blocks76

How the model does with these teams over time: Detroit Pistons · New Orleans Pelicans

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (NOP)−7−46−39
Total points235208−27
DET points121127+6
NOP points11481−33

Recent form before this game

Detroit Pistons

DateOpponentResult
Mar 15 vs OKC L 107–113
Mar 13 vs WAS L 125–129
Mar 11 vs WAS W 123–103
Mar 9 at POR W 119–112
Mar 8 at GSW L 110–115

New Orleans Pelicans

DateOpponentResult
Mar 15 at SAS L 115–119
Mar 13 vs ORL L 93–113
Mar 11 vs LAC W 127–120
Mar 9 vs MEM L 104–107
Mar 8 at HOU L 117–146

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 24 2023-24 NOP at DET NOP 114 – 101 DET
Nov 2 2023-24 DET at NOP DET 116 – 125 NOP
Jan 13 2022-23 NOP at DET NOP 116 – 110 DET
Dec 7 2022-23 DET at NOP DET 98 – 104 NOP
Feb 1 2021-22 NOP at DET NOP 111 – 101 DET