The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 27

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Detroit Pistons at New York Knicks

Tuesday, October 27, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

DET 3–0@NYK 0–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: DET 47 percent, NYK 53 percent. DET Pistons 47% proj. 109 · final 97 NYK Knicks · home 53% proj. 110 · final 111
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
DET Detroit Pistons 109 97 −12
NYK New York Knicks (home) 110 111 +1

Forecast: New York Knicks to win, 53% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans NYK

  • Home court+2.1 NYKWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Recent form+1.5 DETLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: NYK scores 113.3 and allows 107.6; DET scores 115.0 and allows 111.6.
  • Player availability+0.4 NYKDET without Jalen Duren (13 ppg).

Together: NYK by 1, a 53% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

NYK is 0–3, losing by 6 a game on average (scoring 102, allowing 108). Last season they were a +8 team, which still counts for 85% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 53% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 2.2 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security +1.4. Their defense holds opponents to 51% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding +2.4.

DET is 3–0, winning by 13 a game on average (scoring 118, allowing 106). Last season they were a +7 team, which still counts for 85% of their season margin. Their offense rebounds 32% of its own misses (league 26%), which alone adds about 2.8 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −1.3, shooting −1.2. Their defense holds opponents to 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: free throws allowed −1.4. Jalen Duren (13 ppg) is out.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors NYK; left favors DET.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Recent form −1.5, Player availability +0.4, Team strength −0.2, No playoff context +0.2, Rest and schedule +0.0, giving +0.9 for NYK. -4-20+2+4 Model baseline +2.1 Recent form −1.5 Player availability +0.4 Team strength −0.2 No playoff context +0.2 Rest and schedule +0.0 Projected margin +0.9
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +0.9. The 53% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputDETNYKEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16401672 +0.3
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +102 +0.9
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +8.0+5.8 −1.0
Games played this season 33 −0.4
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 115.0113.3 −0.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 111.6107.6 +1.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 96.1 −2.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 13.00.0 +0.4
Rest days 22 −0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueNYK ptsDET ptsMargin
Combined pace, last 1096.1−4.64−2.36−2.28
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)107.6−0.43−1.97+1.54
Season scoring margin (away)8.0−1.27+0.21−1.49
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.80−0.12+0.92
Elo gap incl. home court102.3+0.33−0.54+0.86
Games played (away)3.0+0.27+0.90−0.62
Rotation points missing (away)13.0−0.02+0.53−0.55
Season scoring margin (home)5.8+0.15−0.29+0.44
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)113.3−0.29−0.00−0.29
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)111.6−0.45−0.16−0.28
Games played (home)3.0+0.52+0.27+0.25
Home series wins0.0+0.26+0.05+0.21
Elo rating (home)1672.2+0.01−0.20+0.20
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)115.0+0.09+0.27−0.18
Elo rating (away)1639.9+0.06−0.07+0.14
Back-to-back (home)0+0.04−0.00+0.04
Series pressure0.0+0.05+0.09−0.04
Rest days (away)2.0−0.01+0.01−0.02
Rest days (home)2.0+0.02+0.02+0.00
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDET1640NYK16721.2 pts toward NYK

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DET1640

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1646 → started this one at 1609
  2. This season's 3 games: +30.7
  • WBOS121–113+6.7
  • W@MIA128–111+12.1
  • W@PHI106–93+11.9

NYK1672

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1787 → started this one at 1715
  2. This season's 3 games: −42.9
  • LPHI100–106−16.0
  • L@BOS103–107−7.1
  • LORL102–111−19.8
Season scoring marginDET+8.0NYK+5.81.4 pts toward DET

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DET+8.0

Scores 118.3, allows 105.7 over 3 games: +12.7 a game.

15% this season (+12.7) + 85% last season (+7.2) = +8.0

NYK+5.8

Scores 101.7, allows 108.0 over 3 games: −6.3 a game.

15% this season (−6.3) + 85% last season (+7.9) = +5.8

Offensive rating, last 10DET115.0NYK113.30.5 pts toward DET

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

DET115.0scored, +0.4 vs league

FactorDETLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.7%54.5%−1.2
Turnovers (TOV%)13.1%12.2%−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)32.4%26.1%+2.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2110.210+0.0
Everything else+0.0

NYK113.3scored, −1.3 vs league

FactorNYKLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.1%54.5%−2.2
Turnovers (TOV%)11.2%12.2%+1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.3%26.1%−0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1940.210−0.5
Everything else+0.3
Defensive rating, last 10DET111.6NYK107.61.3 pts toward NYK

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

DET111.6allowed, −3.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.1%54.5%+3.7
Turnovers (TOV%)12.9%12.2%+1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.7%26.1%−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2600.210−1.4
Everything else+0.5

NYK107.6allowed, −7.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.8%54.5%+5.7
Turnovers (TOV%)12.0%12.2%−0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.6%26.1%+2.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2180.210−0.2
Everything else−0.6
Pace, last 10average 96.12.3 pts toward DET

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DET 95.5 and NYK 96.7 → average 96.1 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingDET13.0NYK0.00.4 pts toward NYK

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DET13.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Jalen Duren13.019.12

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-27 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

NYK0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-27 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestDET2 daysNYK2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DET2days

Last played Oct 25 against PHI.

NYK2days

Last played Oct 25 against ORL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DET

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 25@PHI106–9338-8714-3416-251515110.497.995.5
Oct 23@MIA128–11147-8918-3816-201912125.5107.8102.5
Oct 20BOS121–11339-8615-4028-321714119.8113.0100.5
May 17CLE94–12530-8512-3922-29141094.0125.0100.0
May 15@CLE115–9443-8216-3613-191713122.3100.094.0
May 13CLE113–11742-9511-3318-201015116.5118.288.8
May 11@CLE103–11242-8310-239-121811110.8120.493.0
May 9@CLE109–11641-919-2518-221517114.7119.696.0
May 7CLE107–9739-8014-2815-201012118.9107.890.0
May 5CLE111–10137-8410-2627-351116116.8106.395.0

NYK

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 25ORL102–11138-939-3817-241412102.0112.199.5
Oct 23@BOS103–10736-8016-4015-211612110.8116.392.5
Oct 20PHI100–10635-9411-3319-27141498.0103.9102.0
Jun 10SAS107–10636-7815-3220-28138115.1112.893.5
Jun 8SAS111–11540-8813-3718-221312119.4123.793.0
Jun 5@SAS105–10437-8915-3816-211210108.2105.198.0
Jun 3@SAS105–9539-9411-3616-18810105.096.099.5
May 25@CLE130–9348-9819-4315-201320127.591.2102.0
May 23@CLE121–10843-7711-2824-27148124.7110.297.5
May 21CLE109–9344-8513-368-1465122.5104.589.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
53%
pregame chance the forecast gave NYK, the winner
NYK was the forecast favorite
13 pts
margin miss
forecast +1, actual +14 for NYK
52nd
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
49th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.64 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statDETNYK
Final score97111
Field goals37–87 · 42.5%38–88 · 43.2%
Three-pointers9–37 · 24.3%12–36 · 33.3%
Free throws14–24 · 58.3%23–28 · 82.1%
Rebounds4549
Assists2328
Turnovers1418
Steals810
Blocks112

How the model does with these teams over time: Detroit Pistons · New York Knicks

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (NYK)+1+14+13
Total points219208−11
DET points10997−12
NYK points110111+1

Recent form before this game

Detroit Pistons

DateOpponentResult
Oct 25 at PHI W 106–93
Oct 23 at MIA W 128–111
Oct 20 vs BOS W 121–113
May 17 vs CLE L 94–125
May 15 at CLE W 115–94

New York Knicks

DateOpponentResult
Oct 25 vs ORL L 102–111
Oct 23 at BOS L 103–107
Oct 20 vs PHI L 100–106
Jun 10 vs SAS W 107–106
Jun 8 vs SAS L 111–115

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Feb 19 2025-26 DET at NYK DET 126 – 111 NYK
Feb 6 2025-26 NYK at DET NYK 80 – 118 DET
Jan 5 2025-26 NYK at DET NYK 90 – 121 DET
May 1 2024-25 NYK at DET NYK 116 – 113 DET
Apr 29 2024-25 DET at NYK DET 106 – 103 NYK