The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Apr 27

2025-26 · Playoffs · Final

Detroit Pistons at Orlando Magic

Monday, April 27, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

DET 2–4@ORL 3–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: DET 45 percent, ORL 55 percent. DET Pistons 45% proj. 109 · final 88 ORL Magic · home 55% proj. 111 · final 94
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
DET Detroit Pistons 109 88 −21
ORL Orlando Magic (home) 111 94 −17

Forecast: Orlando Magic to win, 55% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

No saved inputs are stored with this game's forecast.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games
55%
pregame chance the forecast gave ORL, the winner
ORL was the forecast favorite
4 pts
margin miss
forecast +2, actual +6 for ORL
544th
most surprising result of 2025-26
of 1,309 graded games
984th
largest margin miss of 2025-26
outcome surprise 0.59 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statDETORL
Final score8894
Field goals31–82 · 37.8%30–92 · 32.6%
Three-pointers6–30 · 20.0%9–35 · 25.7%
Free throws20–28 · 71.4%25–34 · 73.5%
Rebounds4952
Assists1815
Turnovers2010
Steals58
Blocks186

How the model does with these teams over time: Detroit Pistons · Orlando Magic

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (ORL)+2+6+4
Total points220182−38
DET points10988−21
ORL points11194−17

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-04-27 17:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.

Detroit Pistons

  • Questionable Kevin Huerter · Left Hip;Soreness

Orlando Magic

  • Out Jonathan Isaac · Left Knee;Sprain

Recent form before this game

Detroit Pistons

DateOpponentResult
Apr 25 at ORL L 105–113
Apr 22 vs ORL W 98–83
Apr 19 vs ORL L 101–112
Apr 12 at IND W 133–121
Apr 10 at CHA W 118–100

Orlando Magic

DateOpponentResult
Apr 25 vs DET W 113–105
Apr 22 at DET L 83–98
Apr 19 at DET W 112–101
Apr 12 at BOS L 108–113
Apr 10 at CHI W 127–103

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 25 2025-26 DET at ORL DET 105 – 113 ORL
Apr 22 2025-26 ORL at DET ORL 83 – 98 DET
Apr 19 2025-26 ORL at DET ORL 112 – 101 DET
Apr 6 2025-26 DET at ORL DET 107 – 123 ORL
Mar 1 2025-26 DET at ORL DET 106 – 92 ORL