2023-24 · Regular Season · Final
Detroit Pistons at Chicago Bulls
Tuesday, February 27, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded
DET 3–0@CHI 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET Detroit Pistons | 108 | 105 | −3 |
| CHI Chicago Bulls (home) | 123 | 95 | −28 |
Forecast: Chicago Bulls to win, 81% win probability, projected margin 15.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | DET | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1274 | 1505 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +301 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | −9.0 | −1.3 |
| Games played this season | 57 | 57 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 112.6 | 116.2 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 117.9 | 117.3 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 99.1 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 17.4 | 5.8 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | Yes | No |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingDET1274CHI1505
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
DET1274
- Ended last season at 1270 → started this one at 1327
- First 47 games: −76.9
- Last 10 games: +23.2
- LLAC125–136−2.1
- LORL99–111−5.1
- W@SAC133–120+30.6
- W@POR128–122+12.4
- L@LAC106–112−0.8
- L@LAL111–125−3.3
- L@PHX100–116−2.2
- L@IND115–129−2.9
- LORL109–112−2.6
- L@NYK111–113−0.8
CHI1505
- Ended last season at 1541 → started this one at 1530
- First 47 games: −34.5
- Last 10 games: +9.2
- LTOR107–118−16.5
- W@CHA117–110+4.6
- LSAC115–123−9.8
- WMIN129–123+10.1
- W@MEM118–110+9.5
- L@ORL108–114−5.7
- W@ATL136–126+11.8
- L@CLE105–108−1.9
- LBOS112–129−8.3
- W@NOP114–106+15.4
Season scoring marginDET−9.0CHI−1.3
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
DET−9.0
Scores 112.8, allows 121.8 over 57 games: −9.0 a game.
CHI−1.3
Scores 111.8, allows 113.1 over 57 games: −1.3 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10DET112.6CHI116.2
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.1).
DET112.6scored, −2.5 vs league
| Factor | DET | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 54.6% | 54.9% | −0.5 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.7% | 11.6% | −1.7 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 25.1% | 24.3% | +0.4 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.174 | 0.200 | −0.8 | |
| Everything else | −0.0 |
CHI116.2scored, +1.1 vs league
| Factor | CHI | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 55.3% | 54.9% | +0.7 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.9% | 11.6% | +0.9 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 24.8% | 24.3% | +0.2 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.207 | 0.200 | +0.2 | |
| Everything else | −1.0 |
Defensive rating, last 10DET117.9CHI117.3
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.1).
DET117.9allowed, +2.7 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 56.8% | 54.9% | −2.9 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.1% | 11.6% | −0.7 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 20.0% | 24.3% | +1.9 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.237 | 0.200 | −1.1 | |
| Everything else | ±0.0 |
CHI117.3allowed, +2.1 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 57.1% | 54.9% | −3.4 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.9% | 11.6% | +0.5 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 21.4% | 24.3% | +1.3 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.192 | 0.200 | +0.2 | |
| Everything else | −0.7 |
Pace, last 10average 99.1
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
DET 100.4 and CHI 97.8 → average 99.1 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.7)
Rotation points missingDET17.4CHI5.8
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
DET17.4pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Sasser | 10.4 | 20.8 | 8 |
| Stanley Umude | 7.0 | 17.4 | 2 |
Source: official injury report, 2024-02-27 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.
CHI5.8pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Craig | 5.8 | 20.3 | 6 |
Source: official injury report, 2024-02-27 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.
RestDET1 daysCHI2 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
DET1day, back-to-back
Last played Feb 26 against NYK.
CHI2days
Last played Feb 25 against NOP.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
DET
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26 | @NYK | 111–113 | 38-79 | 14-30 | 21-26 | 17 | 10 | 116.8 | 117.7 | 95.5 |
| Feb 24 | ORL | 109–112 | 43-85 | 14-31 | 9-13 | 12 | 7 | 117.2 | 120.4 | 93.0 |
| Feb 22 | @IND | 115–129 | 47-89 | 12-30 | 9-18 | 15 | 6 | 108.5 | 122.9 | 105.5 |
| Feb 14 | @PHX | 100–116 | 38-99 | 10-37 | 14-22 | 19 | 16 | 90.9 | 104.5 | 110.5 |
| Feb 13 | @LAL | 111–125 | 45-108 | 8-28 | 13-17 | 10 | 17 | 104.7 | 119.0 | 105.5 |
| Feb 10 | @LAC | 106–112 | 45-102 | 9-30 | 7-7 | 14 | 14 | 102.9 | 108.7 | 103.0 |
| Feb 8 | @POR | 128–122 | 45-93 | 16-27 | 22-31 | 16 | 16 | 121.9 | 115.1 | 95.5 |
| Feb 7 | @SAC | 133–120 | 47-84 | 17-31 | 22-22 | 11 | 6 | 133.0 | 117.6 | 101.0 |
| Feb 4 | ORL | 99–111 | 36-80 | 8-31 | 19-22 | 15 | 9 | 105.3 | 116.8 | 94.5 |
| Feb 2 | LAC | 125–136 | 45-89 | 17-40 | 18-24 | 16 | 13 | 125.0 | 136.0 | 100.0 |
CHI
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25 | @NOP | 114–106 | 41-95 | 13-40 | 19-21 | 9 | 12 | 111.8 | 106.0 | 101.0 |
| Feb 22 | BOS | 112–129 | 44-94 | 10-28 | 14-16 | 13 | 13 | 112.0 | 129.0 | 100.0 |
| Feb 14 | @CLE | 105–108 | 38-83 | 14-33 | 15-17 | 14 | 9 | 109.4 | 113.7 | 95.5 |
| Feb 12 | @ATL | 136–126 | 51-92 | 13-28 | 21-29 | 6 | 7 | 128.3 | 121.2 | 105.0 |
| Feb 10 | @ORL | 108–114 | 43-99 | 12-37 | 10-14 | 8 | 18 | 114.9 | 118.8 | 86.0 |
| Feb 8 | @MEM | 118–110 | 43-79 | 12-26 | 20-22 | 14 | 8 | 124.2 | 117.0 | 94.5 |
| Feb 6 | MIN | 129–123 | 45-93 | 12-30 | 27-32 | 14 | 13 | 121.7 | 118.3 | 95.1 |
| Feb 3 | SAC | 115–123 | 42-91 | 11-34 | 20-22 | 16 | 11 | 108.5 | 116.0 | 106.0 |
| Jan 31 | @CHA | 117–110 | 45-87 | 11-29 | 16-22 | 9 | 11 | 123.2 | 115.8 | 95.0 |
| Jan 30 | TOR | 107–118 | 38-75 | 11-32 | 20-27 | 17 | 6 | 108.1 | 116.8 | 100.0 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2023-24 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | DET | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 105 | 95 |
| Field goals | 37–75 · 49.3% | 39–98 · 39.8% |
| Three-pointers | 14–37 · 37.8% | 2–29 · 6.9% |
| Free throws | 17–23 · 73.9% | 15–18 · 83.3% |
| Rebounds | 47 | 39 |
| Assists | 22 | 22 |
| Turnovers | 18 | 6 |
| Steals | 3 | 11 |
| Blocks | 8 | 3 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Detroit Pistons · Chicago Bulls
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (CHI) | +15 | −10 | −25 |
| Total points | 231 | 200 | −31 |
| DET points | 108 | 105 | −3 |
| CHI points | 123 | 95 | −28 |
Score by quarter
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 22 | 28 | 29 | 26 | – | 105 |
| CHI | 29 | 26 | 22 | 18 | – | 95 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 2023-24 | DET at CHI | DET 108 – 119 CHI |
| Oct 28 2023-24 | CHI at DET | CHI 102 – 118 DET |
| Apr 9 2022-23 | DET at CHI | DET 81 – 103 CHI |
| Mar 1 2022-23 | CHI at DET | CHI 117 – 115 DET |
| Jan 19 2022-23 | CHI at DET | CHI 126 – 108 DET |