2024-25 · Regular Season · Final
Atlanta Hawks at Detroit Pistons
Monday, February 3, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded
ATL 3–0@DET 2–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL Atlanta Hawks | 111 | 132 | +21 |
| DET Detroit Pistons (home) | 120 | 130 | +10 |
Forecast: Detroit Pistons to win, 73% win probability, projected margin 9.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | ATL | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1440 | 1494 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +124 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | −3.0 | −1.0 |
| Games played this season | 50 | 49 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 104.1 | 111.9 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 110.0 | 112.4 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 102.4 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 39.4 | 0.0 |
| Rest days | 2 | 1 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | Yes |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingATL1440DET1494
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
ATL1440
- Ended last season at 1453 → started this one at 1465
- First 40 games: +24.6
- Last 10 games: −49.0
- W@CHI110–94+15.0
- W@BOS119–115+11.9
- L@NYK110–119−5.5
- LDET104–114−14.5
- LTOR119–122−10.2
- LTOR94–117−31.4
- L@MIN92–100−3.4
- LHOU96–100−4.1
- L@CLE115–137−4.3
- L@IND127–132−2.5
DET1494
- Ended last season at 1296 → started this one at 1347
- First 39 games: +115.1
- Last 10 games: +31.9
- W@NYK124–119+13.2
- LIND100–111−9.6
- LPHX121–125−7.5
- W@HOU107–96+21.7
- W@ATL114–104+14.5
- L@ORL113–121−8.8
- L@CLE91–110−5.1
- L@IND119–133−5.7
- WDAL117–102+13.9
- WCHI127–119+5.3
Season scoring marginATL−3.0DET−1.0
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
ATL−3.0
Scores 115.5, allows 118.5 over 50 games: −3.0 a game.
DET−1.0
Scores 112.3, allows 113.3 over 49 games: −1.0 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10ATL104.1DET111.9
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.0).
ATL104.1scored, −8.8 vs league
| Factor | ATL | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 50.0% | 54.2% | −6.3 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 13.5% | 12.3% | −1.7 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 23.9% | 24.8% | −0.4 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.200 | 0.193 | +0.2 | |
| Everything else | −0.6 |
DET111.9scored, −1.0 vs league
| Factor | DET | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 52.5% | 54.2% | −2.6 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.8% | 12.3% | +0.6 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 25.6% | 24.8% | +0.4 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.179 | 0.193 | −0.4 | |
| Everything else | +0.9 |
Defensive rating, last 10ATL110.0DET112.4
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.0).
ATL110.0allowed, −3.0 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 54.8% | 54.2% | −0.9 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 14.7% | 12.3% | +3.5 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 24.1% | 24.8% | +0.3 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.209 | 0.193 | −0.5 | |
| Everything else | +0.7 |
DET112.4allowed, −0.6 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 53.5% | 54.2% | +1.1 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.9% | 12.3% | −0.6 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 24.6% | 24.8% | +0.1 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.234 | 0.193 | −1.2 | |
| Everything else | +1.1 |
Pace, last 10average 102.4
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
ATL 103.5 and DET 101.3 → average 102.4 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.7)
Rotation points missingATL39.4DET0.0
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
ATL39.4pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daeqwon Plowden | 12.0 | 16.4 | 2 |
| Jalen Johnson | 11.2 | 30.2 | 4 |
| Clint Capela | 9.5 | 19.7 | 6 |
| Bogdan Bogdanović | 6.7 | 22.7 | 6 |
Source: official injury report, 2025-02-03 17:30 ET. 13 rotation players.
DET0.0pts/g missing
Every rotation player was available.
Source: official injury report, 2025-02-03 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.
RestATL2 daysDET1 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
ATL2days
Last played Feb 1 against IND.
DET1day, back-to-back
Last played Feb 2 against CHI.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
ATL
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1 | @IND | 127–132 | 45-90 | 14-37 | 23-32 | 12 | 11 | 122.1 | 125.7 | 104.5 |
| Jan 30 | @CLE | 115–137 | 41-90 | 13-39 | 20-27 | 11 | 9 | 112.7 | 133.0 | 102.5 |
| Jan 28 | HOU | 96–100 | 36-89 | 11-47 | 13-16 | 16 | 8 | 94.1 | 99.0 | 101.5 |
| Jan 27 | @MIN | 92–100 | 34-86 | 12-43 | 12-18 | 21 | 13 | 89.3 | 98.0 | 102.5 |
| Jan 25 | TOR | 94–117 | 33-84 | 11-37 | 17-25 | 22 | 8 | 86.2 | 106.4 | 109.5 |
| Jan 23 | TOR | 119–122 | 42-87 | 13-37 | 22-30 | 14 | 9 | 113.3 | 118.4 | 104.0 |
| Jan 22 | DET | 104–114 | 39-103 | 6-38 | 20-26 | 13 | 15 | 96.3 | 105.6 | 108.0 |
| Jan 20 | @NYK | 110–119 | 40-85 | 13-30 | 17-22 | 23 | 16 | 112.2 | 120.2 | 98.5 |
| Jan 18 | @BOS | 119–115 | 44-93 | 9-37 | 22-28 | 17 | 13 | 109.2 | 104.5 | 99.2 |
| Jan 15 | @CHI | 110–94 | 41-100 | 13-43 | 15-22 | 9 | 13 | 105.8 | 88.7 | 105.0 |
DET
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2 | CHI | 127–119 | 54-99 | 10-30 | 9-13 | 11 | 8 | 119.8 | 110.2 | 107.0 |
| Jan 31 | DAL | 117–102 | 47-106 | 9-35 | 14-16 | 6 | 16 | 120.6 | 106.3 | 96.5 |
| Jan 29 | @IND | 119–133 | 44-89 | 12-34 | 19-26 | 12 | 9 | 117.8 | 130.4 | 101.5 |
| Jan 27 | @CLE | 91–110 | 37-96 | 10-36 | 7-11 | 10 | 12 | 95.8 | 114.6 | 95.5 |
| Jan 25 | @ORL | 113–121 | 40-86 | 10-25 | 23-28 | 16 | 10 | 111.9 | 117.5 | 102.0 |
| Jan 22 | @ATL | 114–104 | 42-84 | 12-34 | 18-19 | 20 | 6 | 105.6 | 96.3 | 108.0 |
| Jan 20 | @HOU | 107–96 | 42-88 | 10-27 | 13-15 | 22 | 13 | 105.9 | 96.0 | 100.5 |
| Jan 18 | PHX | 121–125 | 44-94 | 9-33 | 24-36 | 9 | 14 | 119.8 | 125.0 | 100.5 |
| Jan 16 | IND | 100–111 | 36-91 | 9-36 | 19-22 | 19 | 14 | 98.0 | 108.8 | 102.0 |
| Jan 13 | @NYK | 124–119 | 46-92 | 15-34 | 17-18 | 11 | 10 | 124.0 | 119.0 | 100.0 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2024-25 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | ATL | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 132 | 130 |
| Field goals | 42–81 · 51.9% | 43–83 · 51.8% |
| Three-pointers | 16–37 · 43.2% | 9–27 · 33.3% |
| Free throws | 32–39 · 82.1% | 35–38 · 92.1% |
| Rebounds | 37 | 41 |
| Assists | 27 | 31 |
| Turnovers | 12 | 14 |
| Steals | 8 | 7 |
| Blocks | 7 | 2 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Atlanta Hawks · Detroit Pistons
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (DET) | +9 | −2 | −11 |
| Total points | 231 | 262 | +31 |
| ATL points | 111 | 132 | +21 |
| DET points | 120 | 130 | +10 |
Score by quarter
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 34 | 39 | 28 | 31 | – | 132 |
| DET | 35 | 29 | 34 | 32 | – | 130 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 22 2024-25 | DET at ATL | DET 114 – 104 ATL |
| Nov 8 2024-25 | ATL at DET | ATL 121 – 122 DET |
| Apr 3 2023-24 | DET at ATL | DET 113 – 121 ATL |
| Dec 18 2023-24 | DET at ATL | DET 124 – 130 ATL |
| Nov 14 2023-24 | ATL at DET | ATL 126 – 120 DET |