2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Washington Wizards at Detroit Pistons

Thursday, March 13, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded

WAS 1–1@DET 3–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
WAS Washington Wizards	110	129	+19
DET Detroit Pistons (home)	123	125	+2

Forecast: Detroit Pistons to win, 81% win probability, projected margin 13.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	WAS	DET
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1263	1577
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+384
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−11.7	+1.9
Games played this season	65	66
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	106.0	116.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	112.0	108.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	102.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	11.9	0.0
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingWAS1263DET1577

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

WAS1263

Ended last season at 1263 → started this one at 1322
First 55 games: −76.5
Last 10 games: +17.2

LMIL101–104−2.4
L@ORL90–110−5.0
WBKN107–99+11.6
LPOR121–129−5.0
W@CHA113–100+16.8
L@MIA90–106−4.0
WUTA125–122+6.1
W@TOR118–117+7.5
L@TOR104–119−5.8
L@DET103–123−2.6

DET1577

Ended last season at 1296 → started this one at 1347
First 56 games: +198.3
Last 10 games: +32.2

W@ATL148–143+6.5
WLAC106–97+6.6
WBOS117–97+21.2
LDEN119–134−15.2
WBKN115–94+4.6
W@UTA134–106+12.0
L@LAC115–123−9.0
L@GSW110–115−5.3
W@POR119–112+8.2
WWAS123–103+2.6

Season scoring marginWAS−11.7DET+1.9

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

WAS−11.7

Scores 108.5, allows 120.2 over 65 games: −11.7 a game.

DET+1.9

Scores 114.8, allows 112.9 over 66 games: +1.9 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10WAS106.0DET116.2

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.5).

WAS106.0scored, −7.5 vs league

Factor	WAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.6%	54.2%	−5.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.4%	12.1%	−1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	19.7%	25.2%	−2.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.215	0.194	+0.6
Everything else			+1.7

DET116.2scored, +2.7 vs league

Factor	DET	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.3%	54.2%	+4.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.9%	12.1%	−1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.6%	25.2%	−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.223	0.194	+0.8
Everything else			−1.4

Defensive rating, last 10WAS112.0DET108.4

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.5).

WAS112.0allowed, −1.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.0%	54.2%	+4.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.7%	12.1%	−0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	32.2%	25.2%	−3.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.182	0.194	+0.3
Everything else			+0.0

DET108.4allowed, −5.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.6%	54.2%	+4.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.4%	12.1%	+1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.8%	25.2%	+1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.254	0.194	−1.8
Everything else			−0.6

Pace, last 10average 102.2

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

WAS 100.8 and DET 103.7 → average 102.3 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingWAS11.9DET0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

WAS11.9pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Bilal Coulibaly	11.9	30.6	9

Source: official injury report, 2025-03-13 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

DET0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-03-13 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestWAS2 daysDET2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

WAS2days

Last played Mar 11 against DET.

DET2days

Last played Mar 11 against WAS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

WAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 11	@DET	103–123	37-92	13-39	16-20	13	9	100.0	119.4	103.0
Mar 10	@TOR	104–119	38-105	16-55	12-15	8	13	104.0	120.2	99.5
Mar 8	@TOR	118–117	44-100	13-38	17-23	15	15	116.8	114.7	101.5
Mar 5	UTA	125–122	42-95	17-47	24-29	9	10	119.0	117.3	104.5
Mar 3	@MIA	90–106	31-84	10-35	18-22	13	6	91.8	108.2	98.0
Mar 1	@CHA	113–100	40-88	17-50	16-17	15	11	113.0	100.0	100.0
Feb 26	POR	121–129	43-83	12-36	23-33	19	5	111.0	120.6	108.0
Feb 24	BKN	107–99	35-70	13-31	24-25	24	4	112.6	103.1	95.5
Feb 23	@ORL	90–110	32-78	10-38	16-22	20	3	92.8	113.4	97.0
Feb 21	MIL	101–104	35-87	12-39	19-27	14	6	99.0	103.0	101.5

DET

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 11	WAS	123–103	48-104	16-38	11-15	12	16	119.4	100.0	103.0
Mar 9	@POR	119–112	43-87	9-28	24-32	13	12	113.3	107.7	104.5
Mar 8	@GSW	110–115	39-85	5-23	27-36	20	13	104.8	108.5	105.5
Mar 5	@LAC	115–123	45-86	11-35	14-19	12	5	119.8	128.1	96.0
Mar 3	@UTA	134–106	51-92	11-41	21-28	13	8	122.9	98.1	108.5
Mar 1	BKN	115–94	39-72	12-28	25-29	23	6	110.6	89.5	104.5
Feb 28	DEN	119–134	45-99	12-37	17-23	10	13	114.4	128.8	104.0
Feb 26	BOS	117–97	47-89	13-33	10-17	12	12	119.4	100.0	97.5
Feb 24	LAC	106–97	36-79	9-29	25-36	15	8	107.1	97.0	99.5
Feb 23	@ATL	148–143	55-93	20-40	18-25	17	4	129.8	126.5	113.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games

19%

pregame chance the forecast gave WAS, the winner

the forecast favored DET

17 pts

margin miss

forecast +13, actual −4 for DET

8th

most surprising result of 2024-25

of 1,309 graded games

269th

largest margin miss of 2024-25

outcome surprise 1.64 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	WAS	DET
Final score	129	125
Field goals	43–90 · 47.8%	39–85 · 45.9%
Three-pointers	20–45 · 44.4%	10–30 · 33.3%
Free throws	23–27 · 85.2%	37–43 · 86.0%
Rebounds	47	41
Assists	30	23
Turnovers	15	12
Steals	10	8
Blocks	5	6

How the model does with these teams over time: Washington Wizards · Detroit Pistons

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (DET)	+13	−4	−17
Total points	233	254	+21
WAS points	110	129	+19
DET points	123	125	+2

Recent form before this game