The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Feb 11

2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Detroit Pistons at Chicago Bulls

Tuesday, February 11, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded

DET 2–1@CHI 1–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: DET 64 percent, CHI 36 percent. DET Pistons 64% proj. 120 · final 132 CHI Bulls · home 36% proj. 114 · final 92
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
DET Detroit Pistons 120 132 +12
CHI Chicago Bulls (home) 114 92 −22

Forecast: Detroit Pistons to win, 64% win probability, projected margin 6.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputDETCHI
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 14951408
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −16
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −0.6−3.8
Games played this season 5353
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 115.6112.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 113.7118.9
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 101.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.09.1
Rest days 23
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDET1495CHI1408

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DET1495

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1296 → started this one at 1347
  2. First 43 games: +133.0
  3. Last 10 games: +15.0
  • W@ATL114–104+14.5
  • L@ORL113–121−8.8
  • L@CLE91–110−5.1
  • L@IND119–133−5.7
  • WDAL117–102+13.9
  • WCHI127–119+5.3
  • LATL130–132−7.2
  • LCLE115–118−3.3
  • WPHI125–112+8.3
  • WCHA112–102+3.1

CHI1408

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1475 → started this one at 1481
  2. First 43 games: −79.2
  3. Last 10 games: +6.3
  • W@LAC112–99+24.1
  • L@GSW106–131−11.9
  • LPHI97–109−14.0
  • WDEN129–121+14.6
  • L@BOS100–122−4.2
  • W@TOR122–106+18.5
  • L@DET119–127−5.3
  • WMIA133–124+9.1
  • L@MIN108–127−5.4
  • LGSW111–132−19.2
Season scoring marginDET−0.6CHI−3.8

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DET−0.6

Scores 112.9, allows 113.5 over 53 games: −0.6 a game.

CHI−3.8

Scores 116.6, allows 120.3 over 53 games: −3.8 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10DET115.6CHI112.1

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.2).

DET115.6scored, +2.4 vs league

FactorDETLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.0%54.2%−1.9
Turnovers (TOV%)10.9%12.2%+1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.2%25.0%+1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2020.194+0.2
Everything else+0.7

CHI112.1scored, −1.1 vs league

FactorCHILeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.8%54.2%+0.8
Turnovers (TOV%)12.2%12.2%+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.8%25.0%−0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1870.194−0.2
Everything else−1.3
Defensive rating, last 10DET113.7CHI118.9

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.2).

DET113.7allowed, +0.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.3%54.2%−1.5
Turnovers (TOV%)13.0%12.2%+1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.6%25.0%+1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2450.194−1.5
Everything else+0.3

CHI118.9allowed, +5.7 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.5%54.2%−0.4
Turnovers (TOV%)9.2%12.2%−4.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.1%25.0%+0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1810.194+0.4
Everything else−1.7
Pace, last 10average 101.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DET 101.0 and CHI 101.1 → average 101.0 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingDET0.0CHI9.1

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DET0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-02-11 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

CHI9.1pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Lonzo Ball9.125.48

Source: official injury report, 2025-02-11 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestDET2 daysCHI3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DET2days

Last played Feb 9 against CHA.

CHI3days

Last played Feb 8 against GSW.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DET

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Feb 9CHA112–10244-9011-3713-161113121.7109.792.5
Feb 7PHI125–11244-9717-4420-261419125.0109.8101.0
Feb 5CLE115–11839-9812-3725-281117115.0116.8100.5
Feb 3ATL130–13243-839-2735-38149122.6125.7105.5
Feb 2CHI127–11954-9910-309-13118119.8110.2107.0
Jan 31DAL117–10247-1069-3514-16616120.6106.396.5
Jan 29@IND119–13344-8912-3419-26129117.8130.4101.5
Jan 27@CLE91–11037-9610-367-11101295.8114.695.5
Jan 25@ORL113–12140-8610-2523-281610111.9117.5102.0
Jan 22@ATL114–10442-8412-3418-19206105.696.3108.0

CHI

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Feb 8GSW111–13235-7917-3924-31176111.0132.0100.0
Feb 5@MIN108–12740-8312-3616-2296113.7133.795.0
Feb 4MIA133–12448-9119-4118-22107127.9121.6103.0
Feb 2@DET119–12741-8919-5218-201911110.2119.8107.0
Jan 31@TOR122–10645-8918-4014-17109120.8105.0101.0
Jan 29@BOS100–12237-9215-4911-12141097.1119.6102.5
Jan 27DEN129–12149-9824-537-81713120.6114.2106.5
Jan 25PHI97–10936-8512-3813-20191395.1109.0101.0
Jan 23@GSW106–13134-8716-4022-27119108.2131.099.0
Jan 20@LAC112–9938-9415-4621-261017116.7103.196.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games
64%
pregame chance the forecast gave DET, the winner
DET was the forecast favorite
34 pts
margin miss
forecast −6, actual −40 for CHI
773rd
most surprising result of 2024-25
of 1,309 graded games
23rd
largest margin miss of 2024-25
outcome surprise 0.45 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statDETCHI
Final score13292
Field goals51–96 · 53.1%35–100 · 35.0%
Three-pointers18–41 · 43.9%10–47 · 21.3%
Free throws12–13 · 92.3%12–19 · 63.2%
Rebounds5544
Assists3022
Turnovers1414
Steals109
Blocks82

How the model does with these teams over time: Detroit Pistons · Chicago Bulls

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (CHI)−6−40−34
Total points234224−10
DET points120132+12
CHI points11492−22

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
DET34373427–132
CHI18113033–92

Recent form before this game

Detroit Pistons

DateOpponentResult
Feb 9 vs CHA W 112–102
Feb 7 vs PHI W 125–112
Feb 5 vs CLE L 115–118
Feb 3 vs ATL L 130–132
Feb 2 vs CHI W 127–119

Chicago Bulls

DateOpponentResult
Feb 8 vs GSW L 111–132
Feb 5 at MIN L 108–127
Feb 4 vs MIA W 133–124
Feb 2 at DET L 119–127
Jan 31 at TOR W 122–106

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Feb 2 2024-25 CHI at DET CHI 119 – 127 DET
Nov 18 2024-25 CHI at DET CHI 122 – 112 DET
Apr 11 2023-24 CHI at DET CHI 127 – 105 DET
Feb 27 2023-24 DET at CHI DET 105 – 95 CHI
Nov 12 2023-24 DET at CHI DET 108 – 119 CHI