2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Golden State Warriors at Orlando Magic

Wednesday, March 27, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

GSW 1–1@ORL 1–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
GSW Golden State Warriors	107	101	−6
ORL Orlando Magic (home)	115	93	−22

Forecast: Orlando Magic to win, 70% win probability, projected margin 8.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	GSW	ORL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1568	1542
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+44
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+1.8	+2.1
Games played this season	71	71
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	117.4	112.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	116.0	107.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	96.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	20.2	6.6
Rest days	1	4
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingGSW1568ORL1542

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

GSW1568

Ended last season at 1581 → started this one at 1560
First 61 games: +41.8
Last 10 games: −33.9

LCHI122–125−9.5
LSAS113–126−28.5
W@SAS112–102+6.2
L@DAL99–109−8.5
W@LAL128–121+9.5
LNYK112–119−11.0
WMEM137–116+4.2
LIND111–123−15.3
L@MIN110–114−2.9
W@MIA113–92+21.9

ORL1542

Ended last season at 1447 → started this one at 1460
First 61 games: +72.6
Last 10 games: +9.6

W@CHA101–89+6.1
W@WAS119–109+4.4
L@NYK74–98−14.8
LIND97–111−16.8
WBKN114–106+5.4
W@TOR113–103+7.8
WTOR111–96+4.8
WCHA112–92+4.1
WNOP121–106+14.6
LSAC107–109−6.0

Season scoring marginGSW+1.8ORL+2.1

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

GSW+1.8

Scores 118.3, allows 116.5 over 71 games: +1.8 a game.

ORL+2.1

Scores 110.8, allows 108.8 over 71 games: +2.1 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10GSW117.4ORL112.2

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.8).

GSW117.4scored, +2.6 vs league

Factor	GSW	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.0%	54.8%	+0.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.0%	11.5%	+2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.8%	24.2%	+1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.145	0.196	−1.5
Everything else			+0.3

ORL112.2scored, −2.6 vs league

Factor	ORL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.0%	54.8%	+1.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.3%	11.5%	−2.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.9%	24.2%	+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.188	0.196	−0.2
Everything else			−2.0

Defensive rating, last 10GSW116.0ORL107.5

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.8).

GSW116.0allowed, +1.3 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.7%	54.8%	−1.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.9%	11.5%	−0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.6%	24.2%	−0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.161	0.196	+1.0
Everything else			+0.3

ORL107.5allowed, −7.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.8%	54.8%	+1.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.9%	11.5%	+3.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	16.7%	24.2%	+3.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.188	0.196	+0.2
Everything else			−1.2

Pace, last 10average 96.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

GSW 98.8 and ORL 95.0 → average 96.9 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.3)

Rotation points missingGSW20.2ORL6.6

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

GSW20.2pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Jonathan Kuminga	20.2	30.5	10

Source: official injury report, 2024-03-27 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

ORL6.6pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Gary Harris	6.6	23.1	8

Source: official injury report, 2024-03-27 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestGSW1 daysORL4 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

GSW1day, back-to-back

Last played Mar 26 against MIA.

ORL4days

Last played Mar 23 against SAC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

GSW

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 26	@MIA	113–92	47-85	13-38	6-10	10	7	121.5	98.9	93.0
Mar 24	@MIN	110–114	38-85	14-36	20-26	12	7	108.9	112.9	101.0
Mar 22	IND	111–123	43-106	14-48	11-16	14	24	104.7	117.1	105.5
Mar 20	MEM	137–116	58-100	19-39	2-6	6	13	142.7	122.1	95.5
Mar 18	NYK	112–119	42-88	14-36	14-18	13	12	117.9	124.0	95.5
Mar 16	@LAL	128–121	51-97	14-34	12-15	7	14	134.7	126.0	95.5
Mar 13	@DAL	99–109	37-92	9-28	16-19	15	15	102.1	111.2	97.5
Mar 11	@SAS	112–102	46-93	12-27	8-12	13	10	112.0	102.0	100.0
Mar 9	SAS	113–126	41-88	10-30	21-29	12	9	111.9	124.8	101.0
Mar 7	CHI	122–125	44-97	11-42	23-28	11	13	117.3	121.4	103.5

ORL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 23	SAC	107–109	42-88	10-35	13-18	13	12	112.6	114.7	95.0
Mar 21	NOP	121–106	47-86	14-36	13-19	14	9	121.0	105.0	100.5
Mar 19	CHA	112–92	44-81	12-34	12-13	16	10	119.1	98.9	93.5
Mar 17	TOR	111–96	43-85	11-36	14-20	13	10	114.4	98.0	97.5
Mar 15	@TOR	113–103	40-80	14-31	19-22	14	6	115.3	106.2	97.5
Mar 13	BKN	114–106	40-77	14-32	20-26	12	6	122.6	112.8	93.5
Mar 10	IND	97–111	33-88	9-36	22-29	12	13	98.0	112.1	99.0
Mar 8	@NYK	74–98	27-79	6-26	14-20	13	12	85.1	115.3	86.0
Mar 6	@WAS	119–109	44-81	12-26	19-21	15	8	122.7	114.7	96.0
Mar 5	@CHA	101–89	40-74	13-35	8-15	17	8	111.0	97.8	91.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games

30%

pregame chance the forecast gave GSW, the winner

the forecast favored ORL

16 pts

margin miss

forecast +8, actual −8 for ORL

30th

most surprising result of 2023-24

of 1,312 graded games

324th

largest margin miss of 2023-24

outcome surprise 1.20 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	GSW	ORL
Final score	101	93
Field goals	40–90 · 44.4%	36–85 · 42.4%
Three-pointers	10–34 · 29.4%	10–32 · 31.3%
Free throws	11–13 · 84.6%	11–21 · 52.4%
Rebounds	52	39
Assists	26	25
Turnovers	12	10
Steals	5	10
Blocks	5	5

How the model does with these teams over time: Golden State Warriors · Orlando Magic

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (ORL)	+8	−8	−16
Total points	222	194	−28
GSW points	107	101	−6
ORL points	115	93	−22

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
GSW	27	18	27	29	–	101
ORL	11	26	29	27	–	93

Recent form before this game