The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 2

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Washington Wizards at Orlando Magic

Monday, November 2, 2026 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET

WAS 3–3@ORL 2–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: WAS 39 percent, ORL 61 percent. WAS Wizards 39% proj. 107 · final 103 ORL Magic · home 61% proj. 111 · final 94
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
WAS Washington Wizards 107 103 −4
ORL Orlando Magic (home) 111 94 −17

Forecast: Orlando Magic to win, 62% win probability, projected margin 4.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans ORL

  • Home court+2.1 ORLWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+6.7 ORLElo ORL 1514, WAS 1321; season margin ORL −2.4, WAS −8.1.
  • Player availability+4.7 WASWAS without Alex Sarr (9 ppg) and Justin Champagnie (7 ppg); ORL without Paolo Banchero (25 ppg) and Anthony Black (17 ppg) and 1 more.
  • Rest and schedule+0.3 WASORL 1 days of rest, WAS 3. ORL on the second night of a back-to-back.

Together: ORL by 4, a 62% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

ORL is 2–4, losing by 9 a game on average (scoring 108, allowing 117). Last season they were a ±0 team, which still counts for 70% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 51% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −2.1, offensive rebounding −1.2. Their defense holds opponents to 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding −2.3. Paolo Banchero, Anthony Black and Jalen Suggs are out (49 rotation points a game combined). They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

WAS is 3–3, winning by 1 a game on average (scoring 110, allowing 110). Last season they were a −12 team, which still counts for 70% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding −4, ball security −1.1. Their defense lets opponents rebound 34% of their misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting defense +1.7. Alex Sarr and Justin Champagnie are out (17 rotation points a game combined).

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors ORL; left favors WAS.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength +6.7, Player availability −4.7, Rest and schedule −0.3, No playoff context +0.2, Recent form −0.2, giving +3.9 for ORL. -12-60+6+12 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength +6.7 Player availability −4.7 Rest and schedule −0.3 No playoff context +0.2 Recent form −0.2 Projected margin +3.9
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +3.9. The 62% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputWASORLEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13211514 +0.7
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +263 +5.6
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −8.1−2.4 +1.3
Games played this season 66 −0.9
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 108.5105.1 −1.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 115.1114.4 +0.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 99.6 +0.5
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 16.649.0 −4.7
Rest days 31 −0.1
Second night of a back-to-back NoYes −0.2
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueORL ptsWAS ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court263.4+2.08−3.50+5.58
Rotation points missing (home)49.0−4.04+0.15−4.20
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)105.1−2.61−0.64−1.97
Season scoring margin (away)-8.1+0.71−0.80+1.51
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)108.5−0.14−0.99+0.85
Games played (away)6.0+0.00+0.70−0.70
Elo rating (away)1320.6+0.23−0.27+0.50
Rotation points missing (away)16.6−0.00+0.48−0.48
Combined pace, last 1099.6+0.16−0.29+0.45
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)115.1+0.32+0.00+0.31
Elo rating (home)1514.0−0.03−0.26+0.23
Season scoring margin (home)-2.4−0.27−0.04−0.23
Home series wins0.0+0.24+0.03+0.21
Games played (home)6.0−0.11+0.06−0.17
Rest days (home)1.0−0.14+0.02−0.16
Back-to-back (home)1−0.09+0.07−0.16
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)114.4+0.11−0.03+0.14
Series pressure0.0+0.04+0.00+0.04
Rest days (away)3.0+0.02+0.00+0.02
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingWAS1321ORL15146.3 pts toward ORL

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

WAS1321

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1206 → started this one at 1280
  2. This season's 6 games: +40.8
  • WMIL128–116+13.1
  • LTOR102–112−4.6
  • W@CHI124–120+10.4
  • L@CHA103–110−1.6
  • L@CLE111–121−2.0
  • WCHA95–79+25.5

ORL1514

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1550 → started this one at 1538
  2. This season's 6 games: −23.8
  • LATL125–132−11.1
  • LMIN93–115−19.0
  • W@NYK111–102+19.8
  • L@TOR99–129−15.5
  • W@TOR121–114+12.3
  • LBOS97–108−10.3
Season scoring marginWAS−8.1ORL−2.40.4 pts toward ORL

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

WAS−8.1

Scores 110.5, allows 109.7 over 6 games: +0.8 a game.

30% this season (+0.8) + 70% last season (−12.0) = −8.1

ORL−2.4

Scores 107.7, allows 116.7 over 6 games: −9.0 a game.

30% this season (−9.0) + 70% last season (+0.5) = −2.4

Offensive rating, last 10WAS108.5ORL105.11.1 pts toward WAS

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

WAS108.5scored, −6.1 vs league

FactorWASLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.0%54.5%−3.8
Turnovers (TOV%)12.9%12.2%−1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)17.8%26.1%−3.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2400.210+0.9
Everything else+1.6

ORL105.1scored, −9.5 vs league

FactorORLLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.5%54.5%−6.1
Turnovers (TOV%)13.7%12.2%−2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.3%26.1%−1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2460.210+1.0
Everything else−1.1
Defensive rating, last 10WAS115.1ORL114.40.5 pts toward ORL

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

WAS115.1allowed, +0.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.4%54.5%+1.7
Turnovers (TOV%)12.2%12.2%+0.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)33.6%26.1%−3.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2060.210+0.1
Everything else+1.0

ORL114.4allowed, −0.2 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.2%54.5%+3.5
Turnovers (TOV%)12.4%12.2%+0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)31.2%26.1%−2.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2440.210−1.0
Everything else−0.4
Pace, last 10average 99.60.5 pts toward ORL

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

WAS 102.0 and ORL 97.3 → average 99.6 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingWAS16.6ORL49.04.7 pts toward WAS

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

WAS16.6pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Alex Sarr9.325.46
Justin Champagnie7.218.34

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-02 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

ORL49.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Paolo Banchero24.533.82
Anthony Black16.527.94
Jalen Suggs8.033.43

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-02 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestWAS3 daysORL1 days0.3 pts toward WAS

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

WAS3days

Last played Oct 30 against CHA.

ORL1day, back-to-back

Last played Nov 1 against BOS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

WAS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 30CHA95–7928-7210-3029-3514899.083.295.5
Oct 28@CLE111–12144-838-3215-17105119.4127.494.0
Oct 26@CHA103–11041-859-2812-151410108.4114.695.5
Oct 24@CHI124–12045-9410-3324-281311118.1113.2105.5
Oct 23TOR102–11230-7912-3730-3520695.3104.7107.0
Oct 21MIL128–11645-866-2832-411112123.1112.6103.5
Apr 12@CLE117–13042-9018-4115-19125117.0128.7100.5
Apr 10MIA117–14046-9214-3111-14134113.6135.9103.0
Apr 9CHI108–11938-9610-3822-271710100.9111.2107.0
Apr 7CHI98–12937-8611-3813-2121389.9119.4108.5

ORL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 1BOS97–10834-8114-3915-191613104.3116.193.0
Oct 30@TOR121–11439-7418-3425-29139131.5125.391.5
Oct 28@TOR99–12933-8010-3523-2920998.0125.2102.0
Oct 25@NYK111–10238-8818-4217-211510112.1102.099.5
Oct 23MIN93–11537-848-3911-1916892.1113.9101.0
Oct 21ATL125–13241-8513-4030-39209114.7118.9110.0
May 3@DET94–11631-7510-3022-30139102.2126.192.0
May 1DET79–9327-789-3616-2110889.8105.788.0
Apr 29@DET109–11638-8017-3816-30168111.2120.897.0
Apr 27DET94–8830-929-3525-34101694.989.898.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
39%
pregame chance the forecast gave WAS, the winner
the forecast favored ORL
13 pts
margin miss
forecast +4, actual −9 for ORL
19th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
49th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.95 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statWASORL
Final score10394
Field goals40–75 · 53.3%37–80 · 46.3%
Three-pointers9–24 · 37.5%11–39 · 28.2%
Free throws14–18 · 77.8%9–10 · 90.0%
Rebounds3532
Assists2623
Turnovers1417
Steals106
Blocks51

How the model does with these teams over time: Washington Wizards · Orlando Magic

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (ORL)+4−9−13
Total points218197−21
WAS points107103−4
ORL points11194−17

Recent form before this game

Washington Wizards

DateOpponentResult
Oct 30 vs CHA W 95–79
Oct 28 at CLE L 111–121
Oct 26 at CHA L 103–110
Oct 24 at CHI W 124–120
Oct 23 vs TOR L 102–112

Orlando Magic

DateOpponentResult
Nov 1 vs BOS L 97–108
Oct 30 at TOR W 121–114
Oct 28 at TOR L 99–129
Oct 25 at NYK W 111–102
Oct 23 vs MIN L 93–115

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 12 2025-26 WAS at ORL WAS 131 – 136 ORL
Mar 3 2025-26 WAS at ORL WAS 109 – 126 ORL
Jan 6 2025-26 ORL at WAS ORL 112 – 120 WAS
Nov 1 2025-26 ORL at WAS ORL 125 – 94 WAS
Apr 3 2024-25 ORL at WAS ORL 109 – 97 WAS