The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Dec 16

2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics

Friday, December 16, 2022 · tip-off time not recorded

ORL 1–0@BOS 1–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: ORL 24 percent, BOS 76 percent. ORL Magic 24% proj. 109 · final 117 BOS Celtics · home 76% proj. 120 · final 109
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
ORL Orlando Magic 109 117 +8
BOS Boston Celtics (home) 120 109 −11

Forecast: Boston Celtics to win, 76% win probability, projected margin 11.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputORLBOS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13791667
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +358
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −4.6+6.8
Games played this season 2929
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 111.3116.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 116.2110.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 98.6
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 10.00.0
Rest days 23
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingORL1379BOS1667

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

ORL1379

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1336 → started this one at 1377
  2. First 19 games: −10.2
  3. Last 10 games: +11.9
  • LPHI103–133−12.6
  • L@BKN102–109−2.9
  • LATL108–125−10.1
  • L@CLE96–107−2.6
  • L@TOR108–121−3.8
  • LMIL102–109−3.9
  • WLAC116–111+9.0
  • WTOR113–109+9.3
  • WTOR111–99+16.2
  • WATL135–124+13.3

BOS1667

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1695 → started this one at 1646
  2. First 19 games: +25.2
  3. Last 10 games: −4.5
  • WWAS130–121+2.6
  • WCHA140–105+6.0
  • WMIA134–121+5.2
  • LMIA116–120−11.6
  • W@BKN103–92+8.4
  • W@TOR116–110+5.5
  • W@PHX125–98+19.3
  • L@GSW107–123−17.4
  • L@LAC93–113−26.2
  • W@LAL122–118+3.7
Season scoring marginORL−4.6BOS+6.8

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

ORL−4.6

Scores 109.1, allows 113.7 over 29 games: −4.6 a game.

BOS+6.8

Scores 119.4, allows 112.6 over 29 games: +6.8 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10ORL111.3BOS116.6

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 112.2).

ORL111.3scored, −0.9 vs league

FactorORLLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.2%54.0%+0.3
Turnovers (TOV%)14.1%12.6%−2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.1%23.9%−0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2480.209+1.1
Everything else+0.1

BOS116.6scored, +4.4 vs league

FactorBOSLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.9%54.0%+5.8
Turnovers (TOV%)12.7%12.6%−0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.4%23.9%−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1930.209−0.5
Everything else−0.2
Defensive rating, last 10ORL116.2BOS110.6

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 112.2).

ORL116.2allowed, +4.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.0%54.0%−3.1
Turnovers (TOV%)12.0%12.6%−0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.6%23.9%+0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2370.209−0.8
Everything else+0.6

BOS110.6allowed, −1.7 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.4%54.0%+0.9
Turnovers (TOV%)11.7%12.6%−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.1%23.9%+0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1850.209+0.7
Everything else+1.0
Pace, last 10average 98.6

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

ORL 97.5 and BOS 99.7 → average 98.6 (league 2022-23 to date: 100.0)

Rotation points missingORL10.0BOS0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

ORL10.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Gary Harris10.027.13

Source: official injury report, 2022-12-16 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

BOS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2022-12-16 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestORL2 daysBOS3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

ORL2days

Last played Dec 14 against ATL.

BOS3days

Last played Dec 13 against LAL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

ORL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 14ATL135–12447-9316-3625-301114132.4120.4102.5
Dec 11TOR111–9936-7714-3125-311411120.7106.592.5
Dec 9TOR113–10942-7110-2619-21183116.5111.297.5
Dec 7LAC116–11140-958-2828-311216112.6106.793.7
Dec 5MIL102–10934-938-3226-291315100.0104.8103.0
Dec 3@TOR108–12138-7811-2821-26155109.1123.598.5
Dec 2@CLE96–10740-818-238-121711103.2116.392.5
Nov 30ATL108–12539-798-2722-25186105.9122.5102.0
Nov 28@BKN102–10938-8013-3113-22189107.4114.795.0
Nov 27PHI103–13336-7912-4019-25157105.1135.798.0

BOS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 13@LAL122–11846-10419-4811-161413108.9106.3101.0
Dec 12@LAC93–11333-769-3918-2615594.9115.398.0
Dec 10@GSW107–12338-8712-4019-26106102.9119.4103.5
Dec 7@PHX125–9849-10116-4511-131211117.992.5106.0
Dec 5@TOR116–11044-9013-3615-211113118.4112.298.0
Dec 4@BKN103–9235-8115-3818-20158105.195.897.0
Dec 2MIA116–12040-8715-4521-28207104.5107.1101.0
Nov 30MIA134–12146-8322-4520-231711135.4123.598.5
Nov 28CHA140–10555-9324-526-7139140.0105.0100.0
Nov 27WAS130–12144-8016-3426-261410138.3128.794.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games
24%
pregame chance the forecast gave ORL, the winner
the forecast favored BOS
19 pts
margin miss
forecast +11, actual −8 for BOS
22nd
most surprising result of 2022-23
of 1,314 graded games
181st
largest margin miss of 2022-23
outcome surprise 1.43 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statORLBOS
Final score117109
Field goals42–91 · 46.2%35–84 · 41.7%
Three-pointers9–33 · 27.3%11–46 · 23.9%
Free throws24–28 · 85.7%28–34 · 82.4%
Rebounds5338
Assists1917
Turnovers1714
Steals79
Blocks112

How the model does with these teams over time: Orlando Magic · Boston Celtics

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (BOS)+11−8−19
Total points229226−3
ORL points109117+8
BOS points120109−11

Recent form before this game

Orlando Magic

DateOpponentResult
Dec 14 vs ATL W 135–124
Dec 11 vs TOR W 111–99
Dec 9 vs TOR W 113–109
Dec 7 vs LAC W 116–111
Dec 5 vs MIL L 102–109

Boston Celtics

DateOpponentResult
Dec 13 at LAL W 122–118
Dec 12 at LAC L 93–113
Dec 10 at GSW L 107–123
Dec 7 at PHX W 125–98
Dec 5 at TOR W 116–110

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Oct 22 2022-23 BOS at ORL BOS 126 – 120 ORL
Feb 6 2021-22 BOS at ORL BOS 116 – 83 ORL
Jan 2 2021-22 ORL at BOS ORL 111 – 116 BOS
Nov 3 2021-22 BOS at ORL BOS 92 – 79 ORL