The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 1

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Boston Celtics at Orlando Magic

Sunday, November 1, 2026 · tip-off 3:30 PM ET

BOS 4–1@ORL 2–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: BOS 72 percent, ORL 28 percent. BOS Celtics 72% proj. 113 · final 108 ORL Magic · home 28% proj. 105 · final 97
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
BOS Boston Celtics 113 108 −5
ORL Orlando Magic (home) 105 97 −8

Forecast: Boston Celtics to win, 72% win probability, projected margin 8.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans BOS

  • Home court+2.1 ORLWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+4.5 BOSElo ORL 1524, BOS 1611; season margin ORL −1.8, BOS +7.8.
  • Recent form+3.0 BOSLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: ORL scores 106.4 and allows 113.7; BOS scores 115.2 and allows 109.9.
  • Player availability+2.3 BOSBOS without Mitchell Robinson (7 ppg); ORL without Paolo Banchero (25 ppg) and Jalen Suggs (8 ppg).

Together: BOS by 8, a 72% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

BOS is 4–1, winning by 9 a game on average (scoring 121, allowing 112). Last season they were a +7 team, which still counts for 75% of their season margin. Their offense is close to league average on all four factors. Their defense holds opponents to 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 4 points per 100 possessions. Mitchell Robinson (7 ppg) is out.

ORL is 2–3, losing by 9 a game on average (scoring 110, allowing 118). Last season they were a ±0 team, which still counts for 75% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 50% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −1.7, getting to the line +1.3. Their defense holds opponents to 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding −1.9. Paolo Banchero and Jalen Suggs are out (32 rotation points a game combined).

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors ORL; left favors BOS.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −4.5, Recent form −3.0, Player availability −2.3, No playoff context +0.3, Rest and schedule +0.0, giving −7.4 for ORL. -8-40+4+8 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −4.5 Recent form −3.0 Player availability −2.3 No playoff context +0.3 Rest and schedule +0.0 Projected margin −7.4
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin −7.4. The 72% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputBOSORLEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16111524 +0.3
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −17 −2.4
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +7.8−1.8 −1.9
Games played this season 55 −0.6
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 115.2106.4 −1.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 109.9113.7 −0.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 97.4 −1.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 6.632.5 −2.3
Rest days 22 −0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueORL ptsBOS ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court-16.7−1.04+1.31−2.35
Rotation points missing (home)32.5−1.53+0.08−1.61
Season scoring margin (away)7.8−1.11+0.26−1.37
Combined pace, last 1097.5−3.59−2.41−1.19
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)109.9−1.26−0.12−1.14
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)106.4−1.43−0.41−1.01
Rotation points missing (away)6.6−0.09+0.60−0.69
Games played (away)5.0+0.16+0.80−0.64
Season scoring margin (home)-1.8−0.32+0.24−0.55
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)113.7+0.08−0.32+0.40
Home series wins0.0+0.35+0.10+0.25
Elo rating (home)1524.3+0.03−0.19+0.22
Elo rating (away)1611.1+0.11−0.00+0.12
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)115.2+0.11+0.22−0.11
Series pressure0.0+0.10+0.01+0.09
Games played (home)5.0+0.13+0.08+0.04
Back-to-back (home)0+0.04−0.00+0.04
Rest days (away)2.0−0.02+0.01−0.03
Rest days (home)2.0+0.02+0.01+0.01
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingBOS1611ORL15242.0 pts toward BOS

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

BOS1611

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1635 → started this one at 1601
  2. This season's 5 games: +9.7
  • L@DET113–121−6.7
  • WNYK107–103+7.1
  • WCHI134–99+5.9
  • WBKN125–124+0.6
  • WCHI125–111+2.8

ORL1524

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1550 → started this one at 1538
  2. This season's 5 games: −13.5
  • LATL125–132−11.1
  • LMIN93–115−19.0
  • W@NYK111–102+19.8
  • L@TOR99–129−15.5
  • W@TOR121–114+12.3
Season scoring marginBOS+7.8ORL−1.82.5 pts toward BOS

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

BOS+7.8

Scores 120.8, allows 111.6 over 5 games: +9.2 a game.

25% this season (+9.2) + 75% last season (+7.3) = +7.8

ORL−1.8

Scores 109.8, allows 118.4 over 5 games: −8.6 a game.

25% this season (−8.6) + 75% last season (+0.5) = −1.8

Offensive rating, last 10BOS115.2ORL106.41.1 pts toward BOS

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

BOS115.2scored, +0.6 vs league

FactorBOSLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.0%54.5%−0.8
Turnovers (TOV%)11.9%12.2%+0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.5%26.1%+0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2070.210−0.1
Everything else+0.4

ORL106.4scored, −8.2 vs league

FactorORLLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.3%54.5%−6.3
Turnovers (TOV%)13.4%12.2%−1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.1%26.1%−1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2570.210+1.3
Everything else−0.2
Defensive rating, last 10BOS109.9ORL113.70.7 pts toward BOS

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

BOS109.9allowed, −4.7 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.8%54.5%+4.1
Turnovers (TOV%)12.1%12.2%−0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.9%26.1%+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2310.210−0.6
Everything else+0.4

ORL113.7allowed, −0.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.1%54.5%+3.7
Turnovers (TOV%)12.7%12.2%+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)30.3%26.1%−1.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2410.210−0.9
Everything else−0.8
Pace, last 10average 97.41.2 pts toward BOS

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

Couldn't be rebuilt exactly from the stored box scores.

Rotation points missingBOS6.6ORL32.52.3 pts toward BOS

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

BOS6.6pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Mitchell Robinson6.620.15

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-01 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

ORL32.5pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Paolo Banchero24.533.82
Jalen Suggs8.033.43

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-01 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestBOS2 daysORL2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

BOS2days

Last played Oct 30 against CHI.

ORL2days

Last played Oct 30 against TOR.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

BOS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 30CHI125–11142-8210-3231-40149121.4106.7103.5
Oct 27BKN125–12442-9311-4130-381411112.6111.7100.5
Oct 26CHI134–9946-9321-4421-292419126.492.5106.5
Oct 23NYK107–10340-8715-3912-161010116.3110.892.5
Oct 20@DET113–12140-8817-4216-211412113.0119.8100.5
May 2PHI100–10937-9313-4913-16510105.3116.094.5
Apr 30@PHI93–10636-8612-419-1613893.0107.199.5
Apr 28PHI97–11336-8911-3914-231215103.2120.294.0
Apr 26@PHI128–9642-8724-5320-281214139.1102.193.0
Apr 24@PHI108–10036-8120-4716-171715121.3112.489.0

ORL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 30@TOR121–11439-7418-3425-29139131.5125.391.5
Oct 28@TOR99–12933-8010-3523-2920998.0125.2102.0
Oct 25@NYK111–10238-8818-4217-211510112.1102.099.5
Oct 23MIN93–11537-848-3911-1916892.1113.9101.0
Oct 21ATL125–13241-8513-4030-39209114.7118.9110.0
May 3@DET94–11631-7510-3022-30139102.2126.192.0
May 1DET79–9327-789-3616-2110889.8105.788.0
Apr 29@DET109–11638-8017-3816-30168111.2120.897.0
Apr 27DET94–8830-929-3525-34101694.989.898.5
Apr 25DET113–10536-8915-3326-331414117.7109.496.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
72%
pregame chance the forecast gave BOS, the winner
BOS was the forecast favorite
3 pts
margin miss
forecast −8, actual −11 for ORL
112th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
116th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.33 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statBOSORL
Final score10897
Field goals37–84 · 44.0%34–81 · 42.0%
Three-pointers12–44 · 27.3%14–39 · 35.9%
Free throws22–26 · 84.6%15–19 · 78.9%
Rebounds4143
Assists2924
Turnovers1216
Steals96
Blocks72

How the model does with these teams over time: Boston Celtics · Orlando Magic

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (ORL)−8−11−3
Total points218205−13
BOS points113108−5
ORL points10597−8

Recent form before this game

Boston Celtics

DateOpponentResult
Oct 30 vs CHI W 125–111
Oct 27 vs BKN W 125–124
Oct 26 vs CHI W 134–99
Oct 23 vs NYK W 107–103
Oct 20 at DET L 113–121

Orlando Magic

DateOpponentResult
Oct 30 at TOR W 121–114
Oct 28 at TOR L 99–129
Oct 25 at NYK W 111–102
Oct 23 vs MIN L 93–115
Oct 21 vs ATL L 125–132

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 12 2025-26 ORL at BOS ORL 108 – 113 BOS
Nov 23 2025-26 ORL at BOS ORL 129 – 138 BOS
Nov 9 2025-26 BOS at ORL BOS 111 – 107 ORL
Nov 7 2025-26 BOS at ORL BOS 110 – 123 ORL
Apr 29 2024-25 ORL at BOS ORL 89 – 120 BOS