The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 7

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors

Saturday, November 7, 2026 · tip-off 8:30 PM ET

ORL 2–6@GSW 6–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: ORL 20 percent, GSW 80 percent. ORL Magic 20% proj. 107 · final 119 GSW Golden State Warriors · home 80% proj. 119 · final 126
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
ORL Orlando Magic 107 119 +12
GSW Golden State Warriors (home) 119 126 +7

Forecast: Golden State Warriors to win, 80% win probability, projected margin 12.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans GSW

  • Home court+2.1 GSWWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Player availability+4.6 GSWORL without Paolo Banchero (25 ppg) and Desmond Bane (18 ppg) and 1 more.
  • Recent form+2.5 GSWLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: GSW scores 117.2 and allows 113.4; ORL scores 105.2 and allows 116.2.
  • Team strength+1.8 GSWElo GSW 1509, ORL 1484; season margin GSW +1.8, ORL −3.5.

Together: GSW by 12, a 80% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

GSW is 6–3, winning by 5 a game on average (scoring 118, allowing 113). Last season they were a −1 team, which still counts for 55% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 55% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone adds about 2.4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding +1.6. Their defense lets opponents shoot 55% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone costs about 2.4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +1.4.

ORL is 2–6, losing by 10 a game on average (scoring 106, allowing 115). Last season they were a ±0 team, which still counts for 60% of their season margin. Their offense turns it over on 15.2% of possessions (league 13.3%), which alone costs about 2.6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting −2.2, offensive rebounding −1.5. Their defense forces turnovers on 11.9% of opponent possessions (league 13.3%), which alone costs about 2.0 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting defense −2.0. Paolo Banchero, Desmond Bane and Jalen Suggs are out (50 rotation points a game combined).

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors GSW; left favors ORL.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Player availability +4.6, Recent form +2.5, Team strength +1.8, No playoff context +0.3, Rest and schedule +0.0, giving +11.3 for GSW. -12-60+6+12 Model baseline +2.1 Player availability +4.6 Recent form +2.5 Team strength +1.8 No playoff context +0.3 Rest and schedule +0.0 Projected margin +11.3
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +11.3. The 80% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputORLGSWEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 14841509 +0.5
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +95 +0.8
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −3.5+1.8 +1.0
Games played this season 89 −0.5
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 105.2117.2 +2.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 116.2113.4 +1.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 98.4 −0.5
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 50.00.0 +4.6
Rest days 22 −0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueGSW ptsORL ptsMargin
Rotation points missing (away)50.0+1.93−1.77+3.70
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)105.2−0.05−1.14+1.09
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.83−0.11+0.94
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)117.2+0.76−0.12+0.88
Season scoring margin (away)-3.5+0.89+0.03+0.85
Elo gap incl. home court95.0+0.27−0.51+0.78
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)116.2+0.70+0.06+0.65
Combined pace, last 1098.4−1.69−1.20−0.49
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)113.4−0.19−0.58+0.39
Elo rating (away)1483.8+0.32+0.01+0.32
Games played (away)8.0+0.03+0.30−0.27
Games played (home)9.0−0.23+0.01−0.25
Home series wins0.0+0.28+0.04+0.24
Elo rating (home)1508.8+0.01−0.17+0.18
Season scoring margin (home)1.8+0.26+0.13+0.13
Series pressure0.0+0.05+0.02+0.03
Back-to-back (home)0+0.01±0.00+0.01
Rest days (home)2.0−0.01−0.00−0.01
Rest days (away)2.0+0.02+0.01+0.01
Elimination game0+0.00+0.01−0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.07

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingORL1484GSW15091.3 pts toward GSW

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

ORL1484

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1550 → started this one at 1538
  2. This season's 8 games: −54.0
  • LATL125–132−11.1
  • LMIN93–115−19.0
  • W@NYK111–102+19.8
  • L@TOR99–129−15.5
  • W@TOR121–114+12.3
  • LBOS97–108−10.3
  • LWAS94–103−20.2
  • L@PHX104–117−10.0

GSW1509

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1422 → started this one at 1442
  2. This season's 9 games: +67.1
  • L@LAL105–127−7.5
  • LMEM108–111−9.2
  • L@PHX122–131−5.2
  • W@DEN134–114+32.3
  • W@MIN119–114+13.3
  • WLAL112–95+17.4
  • WLAC124–112+9.5
  • WPHX116–113+4.3
  • WMIA120–100+12.2
Season scoring marginORL−3.5GSW+1.80.5 pts toward GSW

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

ORL−3.5

Scores 105.5, allows 115.0 over 8 games: −9.5 a game.

40% this season (−9.5) + 60% last season (+0.5) = −3.5

GSW+1.8

Scores 117.8, allows 113.0 over 9 games: +4.8 a game.

45% this season (+4.8) + 55% last season (−0.6) = +1.8

Offensive rating, last 10ORL105.2GSW117.22.0 pts toward GSW

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.3).

ORL105.2scored, −7.1 vs league

FactorORLLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.9%53.3%−2.2
Turnovers (TOV%)15.2%13.3%−2.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.9%27.3%−1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2260.228−0.1
Everything else−0.7

GSW117.2scored, +4.9 vs league

FactorGSWLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.9%53.3%+2.4
Turnovers (TOV%)13.5%13.3%−0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)30.9%27.3%+1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2570.228+0.8
Everything else+0.3
Defensive rating, last 10ORL116.2GSW113.41.0 pts toward GSW

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.3).

ORL116.2allowed, +4.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.6%53.3%−2.0
Turnovers (TOV%)11.9%13.3%−2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.2%27.3%−0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2140.228+0.4
Everything else+0.1

GSW113.4allowed, +1.1 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.9%53.3%−2.4
Turnovers (TOV%)14.3%13.3%+1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.4%27.3%−0.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2190.228+0.2
Everything else−0.3
Pace, last 10average 98.40.5 pts toward ORL

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

ORL 96.8 and GSW 100.0 → average 98.4 (league 2026-27 to date: 100.5)

Rotation points missingORL50.0GSW0.04.6 pts toward GSW

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

ORL50.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Paolo Banchero24.533.82
Desmond Bane17.534.58
Jalen Suggs8.033.43

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-07 16:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

GSW0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-07 16:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestORL2 daysGSW2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

ORL2days

Last played Nov 5 against PHX.

GSW2days

Last played Nov 5 against MIA.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

ORL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 5@PHX104–11739-8113-3813-242515103.0117.0100.5
Nov 2WAS94–10337-8011-399-10177104.4112.091.0
Nov 1BOS97–10834-8114-3915-191613104.3116.193.0
Oct 30@TOR121–11439-7418-3425-29139131.5125.391.5
Oct 28@TOR99–12933-8010-3523-2920998.0125.2102.0
Oct 25@NYK111–10238-8818-4217-211510112.1102.099.5
Oct 23MIN93–11537-848-3911-1916892.1113.9101.0
Oct 21ATL125–13241-8513-4030-39209114.7118.9110.0
May 3@DET94–11631-7510-3022-30139102.2126.192.0
May 1DET79–9327-789-3616-2110889.8105.788.0

GSW

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 5MIA120–10042-8016-4120-25187115.495.2104.5
Nov 2PHX116–11336-8413-4231-371312117.2114.199.0
Nov 1LAC124–11246-8622-4910-141511122.8112.0100.5
Oct 30LAL112–9538-8922-4614-171515119.1102.293.5
Oct 28@MIN119–11439-8911-3530-371713110.2105.6108.0
Oct 26@DEN134–11446-8522-4420-211713139.6117.596.5
Oct 24@PHX122–13141-9117-3923-321619119.6129.7101.5
Oct 23MEM108–11134-8314-4126-291918108.0112.199.5
Oct 21@LAL105–12738-928-3621-271515102.9124.5102.0
Apr 12@LAC110–11536-8611-3927-32913117.0121.194.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
80%
pregame chance the forecast gave GSW, the winner
GSW was the forecast favorite
5 pts
margin miss
forecast +12, actual +7 for GSW
139th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
102nd
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.22 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statORLGSW
Final score119126
Field goals43–113 · 38.1%43–80 · 53.8%
Three-pointers18–54 · 33.3%15–32 · 46.9%
Free throws15–21 · 71.4%25–31 · 80.6%
Rebounds5742
Assists2932
Turnovers1418
Steals910
Blocks610

How the model does with these teams over time: Orlando Magic · Golden State Warriors

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (GSW)+12+7−5
Total points226245+19
ORL points107119+12
GSW points119126+7

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-07 16:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.

Orlando Magic

  • Out Desmond Bane · Illness
  • Out Izaiyah Nelson
  • Out Jalen Suggs
  • Out Jonathan Isaac
  • Out Noah Penda
  • Out Paolo Banchero

Golden State Warriors

  • Out Jimmy Butler III · Right ACLRepair
  • Out Kristaps Porziņģis · Not With Team
  • Out Moses Moody
  • Questionable Draymond Green
  • Questionable Gary Payton II
  • Questionable Gui Santos · Left Knee Tendinitis

Recent form before this game

Orlando Magic

DateOpponentResult
Nov 5 at PHX L 104–117
Nov 2 vs WAS L 94–103
Nov 1 vs BOS L 97–108
Oct 30 at TOR W 121–114
Oct 28 at TOR L 99–129

Golden State Warriors

DateOpponentResult
Nov 5 vs MIA W 120–100
Nov 2 vs PHX W 116–113
Nov 1 vs LAC W 124–112
Oct 30 vs LAL W 112–95
Oct 28 at MIN W 119–114

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Dec 22 2025-26 ORL at GSW ORL 97 – 120 GSW
Nov 18 2025-26 GSW at ORL GSW 113 – 121 ORL
Feb 27 2024-25 GSW at ORL GSW 121 – 115 ORL
Feb 3 2024-25 ORL at GSW ORL 99 – 104 GSW
Mar 27 2023-24 GSW at ORL GSW 101 – 93 ORL