2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

San Antonio Spurs at Portland Trail Blazers

Saturday, November 7, 2026 · tip-off 10:00 PM ET

SAS 7–2@POR 6–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
SAS San Antonio Spurs	115	125	+10
POR Portland Trail Blazers (home)	109	103	−6

Forecast: San Antonio Spurs to win, 68% win probability, projected margin 6.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans SAS

Home court+2.1 PORWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
Team strength+6.5 SASElo POR 1548, SAS 1698; season margin POR +3.0, SAS +8.5.
Player availability+0.8 SASPOR without Ja Morant (16 ppg) and Robert Williams III (7 ppg).
Rest and schedule+0.3 SASPOR 1 days of rest, SAS 1. POR and SAS on the second night of a back-to-back.

Together: SAS by 6, a 68% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

SAS is 7–2, winning by 9 a game on average (scoring 118, allowing 109). Last season they were a +8 team, which still counts for 55% of their season margin. Their offense turns it over on 10.7% of possessions (league 13.3%), which alone adds about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting −1.4. Their defense holds opponents to 52% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone adds about 2.7 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers −2.0, defensive rebounding +1.4. They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

POR is 6–2, winning by 9 a game on average (scoring 121, allowing 112). Last season they were a −1 team, which still counts for 60% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 55% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone adds about 2.4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: getting to the line +1.2. Their defense forces turnovers on 12.1% of opponent possessions (league 13.3%), which alone costs about 1.7 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding +1.2. Ja Morant and Robert Williams III are out (23 rotation points a game combined). They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors POR; left favors SAS.

Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin −5.4. The 68% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated

Every input the model received, with its effect

Input	SAS	POR	Effect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1698	1548	−1.2
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−80		−4.0
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+8.5	+3.0	−0.9
Games played this season	9	8	−0.4
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	116.9	115.3	+0.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	108.9	112.8	−0.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	99.5		+0.5
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	23.2	−0.8
Rest days	1	1	−0.2
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	Yes	−0.1

All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team

Input	Value	POR pts	SAS pts	Margin
Elo gap incl. home court	-79.6	−1.73	+2.24	−3.97
Elo rating (away)	1698.0	−1.34	+0.30	−1.64
Season scoring margin (away)	8.5	−0.91	+0.35	−1.26
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)	108.9	−0.86	−0.01	−0.85
Rotation points missing (away)	0.0	−0.23	+0.46	−0.69
Combined pace, last 10	99.5	−0.03	−0.52	+0.49
Elo rating (home)	1548.4	+0.00	−0.40	+0.40
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)	112.8	−0.65	−0.97	+0.33
Season scoring margin (home)	3.0	+0.31	±0.00	+0.31
Games played (away)	9.0	+0.01	+0.28	−0.27
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)	115.3	+0.17	−0.07	+0.24
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)	116.9	+0.06	+0.27	−0.22
Rest days (home)	1.0	−0.15	+0.06	−0.21
Home series wins	0.0	+0.27	+0.11	+0.17
Rotation points missing (home)	23.2	+0.02	+0.13	−0.11
Back-to-back (home)	1	−0.09	±0.00	−0.09
Games played (home)	8.0	−0.16	−0.08	−0.09
Elimination game	0	+0.01	−0.02	+0.03
Series pressure	0.0	+0.06	+0.03	+0.02
Rest days (away)	1.0	+0.01	+0.01	+0.00
Back-to-back (away)	1	±0.00	±0.00	±0.00
Baseline (average output)		114.4	112.4	+2.07

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingSAS1698POR15485.2 pts toward SAS

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

SAS1698

Ended last season at 1771 → started this one at 1703
This season's 9 games: −5.3

LOKC104–116−15.8
LHOU110–114−11.1
W@DAL122–106+5.7
WSAC130–103+2.6
W@UTA117–111+1.9
WMIN121–111+5.3
WUTA119–97+1.7
WDAL112–111+0.8
W@SAC124–109+3.6

POR1548

Ended last season at 1514 → started this one at 1511
This season's 8 games: +37.6

WPHX124–83+22.0
W@SAC128–120+6.0
W@LAL136–129+12.2
LMEM103–124−34.1
W@UTA112–90+10.0
W@DEN118–110+13.3
W@PHX132–119+13.2
L@LAL118–124−5.0

Season scoring marginSAS+8.5POR+3.01.3 pts toward SAS

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

SAS+8.5

Scores 117.7, allows 108.7 over 9 games: +9.0 a game.

45% this season (+9.0) + 55% last season (+8.2) = +8.5

POR+3.0

Scores 121.4, allows 112.4 over 8 games: +9.0 a game.

40% this season (+9.0) + 60% last season (−1.0) = +3.0

Offensive rating, last 10SAS116.9POR115.3no effect on the margin

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.3).

SAS116.9scored, +4.6 vs league

Factor	SAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.4%	53.3%	−1.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.7%	13.3%	+3.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.4%	27.3%	+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.240	0.228	+0.4
Everything else			+1.5

POR115.3scored, +3.0 vs league

Factor	POR	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.9%	53.3%	+2.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.8%	13.3%	−0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	29.2%	27.3%	+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.271	0.228	+1.2
Everything else			−0.8

Defensive rating, last 10SAS108.9POR112.80.5 pts toward SAS

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.3).

SAS108.9allowed, −3.4 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.5%	53.3%	+2.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.9%	13.3%	−2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.2%	27.3%	+1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.190	0.228	+1.1
Everything else			+0.3

POR112.8allowed, +0.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.0%	53.3%	+0.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.1%	13.3%	−1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.6%	27.3%	+1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.258	0.228	−0.9
Everything else			+0.3

Pace, last 10average 99.50.5 pts toward POR

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

SAS 98.8 and POR 100.2 → average 99.5 (league 2026-27 to date: 100.5)

Rotation points missingSAS0.0POR23.20.8 pts toward SAS

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

SAS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-07 16:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

POR23.2pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Ja Morant	15.8	25.9	4
Robert Williams III	7.4	16.6	7

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-07 16:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestSAS1 daysPOR1 days0.3 pts toward SAS

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

SAS1day, back-to-back

Last played Nov 6 against SAC.

POR1day, back-to-back

Last played Nov 6 against LAL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

SAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 6	@SAC	124–109	38-79	15-30	33-42	11	13	131.9	113.5	95.0
Nov 4	DAL	112–111	37-95	5-36	33-39	10	22	114.3	112.1	98.5
Nov 2	UTA	119–97	42-91	11-32	24-30	12	9	117.8	96.0	101.0
Oct 31	MIN	121–111	43-87	10-27	25-31	15	16	121.0	111.0	100.0
Oct 28	@UTA	117–111	44-101	12-38	17-21	11	15	108.3	102.8	97.8
Oct 27	SAC	130–103	49-90	17-37	15-19	13	9	130.0	103.0	100.0
Oct 24	@DAL	122–106	48-101	15-42	11-16	12	15	118.4	103.9	102.5
Oct 23	HOU	110–114	40-87	12-37	18-25	15	9	112.2	117.5	97.5
Oct 20	OKC	104–116	36-93	10-37	22-25	13	10	102.0	113.7	102.0
Jun 10	@NYK	106–107	36-86	17-43	17-20	11	12	112.8	115.1	93.5

POR

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 6	@LAL	118–124	36-70	19-43	27-37	24	8	120.4	124.0	99.0
Nov 4	@PHX	132–119	44-86	14-39	30-41	17	16	126.9	114.4	104.0
Nov 2	@DEN	118–110	43-92	15-41	17-21	16	21	122.9	113.4	96.5
Oct 31	@UTA	112–90	31-76	16-44	34-41	17	9	108.7	88.2	102.5
Oct 29	MEM	103–124	37-91	12-49	17-26	16	13	101.0	121.6	102.0
Oct 27	@LAL	136–129	46-78	18-36	26-41	14	7	133.3	129.0	101.0
Oct 23	@SAC	128–120	46-96	14-48	22-30	9	13	120.8	113.2	106.0
Oct 21	PHX	124–83	45-94	19-47	15-18	17	16	126.5	86.5	97.0
Apr 28	@SAS	95–114	33-94	11-47	18-23	9	14	99.0	121.3	95.0
Apr 26	SAS	93–114	32-80	10-31	19-23	18	7	93.0	116.3	99.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

68%

pregame chance the forecast gave SAS, the winner

SAS was the forecast favorite

16 pts

margin miss

forecast −6, actual −22 for POR

98th

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

38th

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.39 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	SAS	POR
Final score	125	103
Field goals	40–90 · 44.4%	35–84 · 41.7%
Three-pointers	17–44 · 38.6%	9–35 · 25.7%
Free throws	28–30 · 93.3%	24–30 · 80.0%
Rebounds	51	38
Assists	29	17
Turnovers	16	17
Steals	7	9
Blocks	7	3

How the model does with these teams over time: San Antonio Spurs · Portland Trail Blazers

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (POR)	−6	−22	−16
Total points	224	228	+4
SAS points	115	125	+10
POR points	109	103	−6

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-07 16:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.