2025-26 · Playoffs · Final

Portland Trail Blazers at San Antonio Spurs

Tuesday, April 21, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

POR 2–4@SAS 3–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
POR Portland Trail Blazers	105	106	+1
SAS San Antonio Spurs (home)	114	103	−11

Forecast: San Antonio Spurs to win, 74% win probability, projected margin 9.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	POR	SAS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1523	1740
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+287
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−0.5	+8.2
Games played this season	83	84
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	115.4	122.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	107.2	110.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	98.8
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	0.0
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No
Playoff series state	1 home series wins

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPOR1523SAS1740

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

POR1523

Ended last season at 1504 → started this one at 1503
First 73 games: −10.3
Last 10 games: +30.4

WMIL130–99+9.1
LDAL93–100−16.0
WWAS123–88+6.4
W@LAC114–104+16.5
WNOP118–106+5.8
L@DEN132–137−3.3
L@SAS101–112−2.5
WLAC116–97+14.2
WSAC122–110+3.5
L@SAS98–111−3.3

SAS1740

Ended last season at 1417 → started this one at 1438
First 74 games: +294.9
Last 10 games: +7.1

W@MIL127–95+5.2
WCHI129–114+1.5
W@GSW127–113+5.0
W@LAC118–99+9.6
L@DEN134–136−6.2
WPHI115–102+2.8
WPOR112–101+2.5
WDAL139–120+1.3
LDEN118–128−17.9
WPOR111–98+3.3

Season scoring marginPOR−0.5SAS+8.2

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

POR−0.5

Scores 115.3, allows 115.7 over 83 games: −0.5 a game.

SAS+8.2

Scores 119.6, allows 111.4 over 84 games: +8.2 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10POR115.4SAS122.5

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).

POR115.4scored, +0.6 vs league

Factor	POR	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.4%	54.7%	−0.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.2%	12.2%	−1.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	33.6%	26.0%	+3.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.214	0.209	+0.1
Everything else			−1.1

SAS122.5scored, +7.7 vs league

Factor	SAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.3%	54.7%	+3.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.3%	12.2%	+2.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	29.9%	26.0%	+1.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.194	0.209	−0.4
Everything else			−0.2

Defensive rating, last 10POR107.2SAS110.4

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).

POR107.2allowed, −7.6 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.7%	54.7%	+4.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.8%	12.2%	+2.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.2%	26.0%	+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.210	0.209	−0.0
Everything else			−0.1

SAS110.4allowed, −4.4 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.9%	54.7%	+4.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.0%	12.2%	−3.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	20.7%	26.0%	+2.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.149	0.209	+1.7
Everything else			−0.8

Pace, last 10average 98.8

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

POR 98.4 and SAS 99.2 → average 98.8 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.2)

Rotation points missingPOR0.0SAS0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

POR0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-04-21 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

SAS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-04-21 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestPOR2 daysSAS2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

POR2days

Last played Apr 19 against SAS.

SAS2days

Last played Apr 19 against POR.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

POR

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 19	@SAS	98–111	39-91	10-38	10-12	10	8	102.1	116.8	95.5
Apr 12	SAC	122–110	47-101	16-46	12-15	12	18	123.2	112.2	98.5
Apr 10	LAC	116–97	37-83	12-39	30-35	13	14	122.1	102.1	95.0
Apr 8	@SAS	101–112	42-93	12-37	5-10	16	11	100.0	110.9	101.0
Apr 6	@DEN	132–137	42-89	25-52	23-28	15	11	125.7	129.2	95.5
Apr 2	NOP	118–106	42-92	20-51	14-18	13	14	116.8	107.1	100.0
Mar 31	@LAC	114–104	41-91	15-45	17-18	14	18	123.9	114.3	91.5
Mar 29	WAS	123–88	44-86	12-36	23-32	14	11	119.4	85.4	103.0
Mar 27	DAL	93–100	31-79	8-30	23-33	24	14	89.4	96.2	104.0
Mar 25	MIL	130–99	42-80	19-41	27-33	20	15	131.3	98.0	100.0

SAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 19	POR	111–98	40-84	15-33	16-19	13	11	116.8	102.1	95.5
Apr 12	DEN	118–128	45-99	15-47	13-18	9	14	115.7	126.7	101.5
Apr 10	DAL	139–120	50-92	13-32	26-27	10	13	139.0	121.2	99.5
Apr 8	POR	112–101	43-88	11-29	15-19	15	11	110.9	100.0	101.0
Apr 6	PHI	115–102	44-89	11-32	16-22	9	9	118.6	105.2	97.0
Apr 4	@DEN	134–136	47-101	15-45	25-27	10	12	122.9	127.1	97.8
Apr 2	@LAC	118–99	47-88	12-31	12-14	14	10	120.4	100.0	98.5
Apr 1	@GSW	127–113	44-93	15-47	24-30	14	13	125.7	111.9	101.0
Mar 30	CHI	129–114	49-96	14-34	17-24	11	16	125.2	111.8	102.5
Mar 28	@MIL	127–95	49-89	14-35	15-20	11	9	129.6	97.9	97.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

26%

pregame chance the forecast gave POR, the winner

the forecast favored SAS

12 pts

margin miss

forecast +9, actual −3 for SAS

53rd

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

490th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 1.34 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	POR	SAS
Final score	106	103
Field goals	38–89 · 42.7%	38–86 · 44.2%
Three-pointers	13–38 · 34.2%	7–24 · 29.2%
Free throws	17–23 · 73.9%	20–28 · 71.4%
Rebounds	43	45
Assists	20	19
Turnovers	15	16
Steals	8	13
Blocks	11	5

How the model does with these teams over time: Portland Trail Blazers · San Antonio Spurs

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (SAS)	+9	−3	−12
Total points	219	209	−10
POR points	105	106	+1
SAS points	114	103	−11

Recent form before this game