2025-26 · Playoffs · Final

San Antonio Spurs at Portland Trail Blazers

Sunday, April 26, 2026 · tip-off 3:30 PM ET

SAS 3–4@POR 2–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
SAS San Antonio Spurs	109	114	+5
POR Portland Trail Blazers (home)	107	93	−14

Forecast: San Antonio Spurs to win, 55% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

No saved inputs are stored with this game's forecast.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

55%

pregame chance the forecast gave SAS, the winner

SAS was the forecast favorite

19 pts

margin miss

forecast −2, actual −21 for POR

544th

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

229th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 0.59 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	SAS	POR
Final score	114	93
Field goals	43–87 · 49.4%	32–80 · 40.0%
Three-pointers	14–33 · 42.4%	10–31 · 32.3%
Free throws	14–17 · 82.4%	19–23 · 82.6%
Rebounds	40	39
Assists	26	14
Turnovers	12	18
Steals	12	6
Blocks	10	5

How the model does with these teams over time: San Antonio Spurs · Portland Trail Blazers

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (POR)	−2	−21	−19
Total points	216	207	−9
SAS points	109	114	+5
POR points	107	93	−14

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-04-26 17:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.