The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 29

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Memphis Grizzlies at Portland Trail Blazers

Thursday, October 29, 2026 · tip-off 10:00 PM ET

MEM 4–0@POR 3–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: MEM 24 percent, POR 76 percent. MEM Grizzlies 24% proj. 112 · final 124 POR Trail Blazers · home 76% proj. 122 · final 103
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
MEM Memphis Grizzlies 112 124 +12
POR Portland Trail Blazers (home) 122 103 −19

Forecast: Portland Trail Blazers to win, 76% win probability, projected margin 10.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans POR

  • Home court+2.1 PORWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+5.2 PORElo POR 1551, MEM 1374; season margin POR +2.0, MEM −3.0.
  • Recent form+3.1 PORLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: POR scores 113.7 and allows 112.6; MEM scores 109.1 and allows 120.3.
  • Player availability+0.5 MEMPOR without Robert Williams III (10 ppg).

Together: POR by 10, a 76% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

POR is 3–0, winning by 19 a game on average (scoring 129, allowing 111). Last season they were a −1 team, which still counts for 85% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security +1.4, offensive rebounding +1.3. Their defense forces turnovers on 13.2% of opponent possessions (league 12.2%), which alone adds about 1.4 points per 100 possessions. Robert Williams III (10 ppg) is out.

MEM is 4–0, winning by 10 a game on average (scoring 117, allowing 107). Last season they were a −6 team, which still counts for 80% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Their offense is below average at everything: shooting, turnovers, rebounding and free throws. Their defense lets opponents rebound 42% of their misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 7 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting defense −5.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors POR; left favors MEM.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength +5.2, Recent form +3.1, Player availability −0.5, No playoff context +0.3, Rest and schedule +0.0, giving +10.2 for POR. -12-60+6+12 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength +5.2 Recent form +3.1 Player availability −0.5 No playoff context +0.3 Rest and schedule +0.0 Projected margin +10.2
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +10.2. The 76% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputMEMPOREffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13741551 +0.7
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +247 +4.5
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −3.0+2.0 +0.6
Games played this season 43 −0.7
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 109.1113.7 +0.9
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 120.3112.6 +2.2
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.9 +0.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.09.7 −0.5
Rest days 32 +0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValuePOR ptsMEM ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court247.4+1.87−2.67+4.54
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)120.3+1.54+0.17+1.37
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)109.1−0.03−1.14+1.11
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.38+0.53−0.91
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)112.6−0.49−1.28+0.79
Games played (away)4.0+0.24+0.96−0.72
Season scoring margin (away)-3.0+0.45−0.03+0.48
Elo rating (away)1373.6+0.34−0.08+0.42
Rotation points missing (home)9.7+0.52+0.10+0.41
Elo rating (home)1551.0+0.03−0.26+0.28
Home series wins0.0+0.26+0.02+0.23
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)113.7−0.28−0.11−0.17
Season scoring margin (home)2.0+0.20+0.06+0.14
Games played (home)3.0+0.42+0.37+0.05
Combined pace, last 10100.9+2.95+2.92+0.03
Back-to-back (home)0+0.01−0.01+0.02
Rest days (away)3.0+0.02+0.00+0.01
Series pressure0.0+0.03+0.01+0.01
Rest days (home)2.0+0.04+0.05−0.01
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMEM1374POR15515.2 pts toward POR

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MEM1374

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1273 → started this one at 1330
  2. This season's 4 games: +44.0
  • WUTA123–103+12.8
  • W@GSW111–108+9.2
  • W@SAC123–112+14.2
  • W@UTA110–105+7.8

POR1551

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1514 → started this one at 1511
  2. This season's 3 games: +40.2
  • WPHX124–83+22.0
  • W@SAC128–120+6.0
  • W@LAL136–129+12.2
Season scoring marginMEM−3.0POR+2.00.1 pts toward MEM

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MEM−3.0

Scores 116.8, allows 107.0 over 4 games: +9.8 a game.

20% this season (+9.8) + 80% last season (−6.1) = −3.0

POR+2.0

Scores 129.3, allows 110.7 over 3 games: +18.7 a game.

15% this season (+18.7) + 85% last season (−1.0) = +2.0

Offensive rating, last 10MEM109.1POR113.70.9 pts toward POR

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MEM109.1scored, −5.5 vs league

FactorMEMLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.1%54.5%−3.7
Turnovers (TOV%)12.5%12.2%−0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.3%26.1%−2.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1770.210−0.9
Everything else+2.2

POR113.7scored, −0.9 vs league

FactorPORLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.4%54.5%−3.1
Turnovers (TOV%)11.2%12.2%+1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.0%26.1%+1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2150.210+0.1
Everything else−0.5
Defensive rating, last 10MEM120.3POR112.62.2 pts toward POR

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MEM120.3allowed, +5.7 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.7%54.5%−4.8
Turnovers (TOV%)12.7%12.2%+0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)42.2%26.1%−7.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2260.210−0.5
Everything else+6.1

POR112.6allowed, −2.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.2%54.5%+0.6
Turnovers (TOV%)13.2%12.2%+1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.6%26.1%+0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2310.210−0.6
Everything else+0.4
Pace, last 10average 100.9no effect on the margin

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MEM 103.5 and POR 98.3 → average 100.9 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingMEM0.0POR9.70.5 pts toward MEM

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MEM0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-29 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

POR9.7pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Robert Williams III9.718.13

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-29 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestMEM3 daysPOR2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MEM3days

Last played Oct 26 against UTA.

POR2days

Last played Oct 27 against LAL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MEM

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 26@UTA110–10537-8516-3720-22126110.0104.0100.5
Oct 25@SAC123–11242-9615-4124-271219121.8113.1100.0
Oct 23@GSW111–10840-8615-3916-222518112.1108.099.5
Oct 21UTA123–10344-9313-3422-281315118.399.0104.0
Apr 12@HOU101–13239-9513-4910-1013398.1128.2103.0
Apr 10@UTA101–14741-10911-528-919483.5121.5121.0
Apr 8@DEN119–13642-9219-5016-2363119.0136.0100.0
Apr 6CLE126–14245-9429-597-10133122.3137.9103.0
Apr 5@MIL115–13138-9217-4622-28149112.7129.7101.5
Apr 3TOR96–12834-8511-4217-2620893.2125.5102.5

POR

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 27@LAL136–12946-7818-3626-41147133.3129.0101.0
Oct 23@SAC128–12046-9614-4822-30913120.8113.2106.0
Oct 21PHX124–8345-9419-4715-181716126.586.597.0
Apr 28@SAS95–11433-9411-4718-2391499.0121.395.0
Apr 26SAS93–11432-8010-3119-2318793.0116.399.0
Apr 24SAS108–12037-9014-3820-291016109.1122.498.5
Apr 21@SAS106–10338-8913-3817-231515108.2106.297.5
Apr 19@SAS98–11139-9110-3810-12108102.1116.895.5
Apr 12SAC122–11047-10116-4612-151218123.2112.298.5
Apr 10LAC116–9737-8312-3930-351314122.1102.195.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
24%
pregame chance the forecast gave MEM, the winner
the forecast favored POR
31 pts
margin miss
forecast +10, actual −21 for POR
3rd
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
6th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 1.44 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statMEMPOR
Final score124103
Field goals47–102 · 46.1%37–91 · 40.7%
Three-pointers18–42 · 42.9%12–49 · 24.5%
Free throws12–12 · 100.0%17–26 · 65.4%
Rebounds5445
Assists3223
Turnovers1016
Steals75
Blocks111

How the model does with these teams over time: Memphis Grizzlies · Portland Trail Blazers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (POR)+10−21−31
Total points234227−7
MEM points112124+12
POR points122103−19

Recent form before this game

Memphis Grizzlies

DateOpponentResult
Oct 26 at UTA W 110–105
Oct 25 at SAC W 123–112
Oct 23 at GSW W 111–108
Oct 21 vs UTA W 123–103
Apr 12 at HOU L 101–132

Portland Trail Blazers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 27 at LAL W 136–129
Oct 23 at SAC W 128–120
Oct 21 vs PHX W 124–83
Apr 28 at SAS L 95–114
Apr 26 vs SAS L 93–114

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 4 2025-26 POR at MEM POR 122 – 114 MEM
Feb 7 2025-26 MEM at POR MEM 115 – 122 POR
Feb 6 2025-26 MEM at POR MEM 115 – 135 POR
Dec 7 2025-26 POR at MEM POR 96 – 119 MEM
Mar 19 2024-25 MEM at POR MEM 99 – 115 POR