2025-26 · Playoffs · Final

San Antonio Spurs at Portland Trail Blazers

Friday, April 24, 2026 · tip-off 10:30 PM ET

SAS 3–4@POR 2–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
SAS San Antonio Spurs	104	120	+16
POR Portland Trail Blazers (home)	106	108	+2

Forecast: Portland Trail Blazers to win, 55% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

No saved inputs are stored with this game's forecast.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

45%

pregame chance the forecast gave SAS, the winner

the forecast favored POR

14 pts

margin miss

forecast +2, actual −12 for POR

323rd

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

399th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 0.80 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	SAS	POR
Final score	120	108
Field goals	41–87 · 47.1%	37–90 · 41.1%
Three-pointers	16–33 · 48.5%	14–38 · 36.8%
Free throws	22–28 · 78.6%	20–29 · 69.0%
Rebounds	50	45
Assists	27	21
Turnovers	13	10
Steals	6	7
Blocks	8	4

How the model does with these teams over time: San Antonio Spurs · Portland Trail Blazers

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (POR)	+2	−12	−14
Total points	210	228	+18
SAS points	104	120	+16
POR points	106	108	+2

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-04-24 17:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.