2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

San Antonio Spurs at Sacramento Kings

Friday, November 6, 2026 · tip-off 10:00 PM ET

SAS 6–2@SAC 1–7 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
SAS San Antonio Spurs	121	124	+3
SAC Sacramento Kings (home)	111	109	−2

Forecast: San Antonio Spurs to win, 77% win probability, projected margin 10.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	SAS	SAC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1694	1339
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−285
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+8.2	−11.6
Games played this season	8	8
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	116.0	108.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	109.5	119.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	100.5
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	7.0
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingSAS1694SAC1339

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

SAS1694

Ended last season at 1771 → started this one at 1703
This season's 8 games: −8.9

LOKC104–116−15.8
LHOU110–114−11.1
W@DAL122–106+5.7
WSAC130–103+2.6
W@UTA117–111+1.9
WMIN121–111+5.3
WUTA119–97+1.7
WDAL112–111+0.8

SAC1339

Ended last season at 1326 → started this one at 1369
This season's 8 games: −30.2

L@LAC96–121−6.8
LPOR120–128−6.0
LMEM112–123−14.2
L@SAS103–130−2.6
L@NOP120–132−6.8
L@MEM105–136−12.2
W@DAL115–100+24.4
LLAL103–116−6.0

Season scoring marginSAS+8.2SAC−11.6

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

SAS+8.2

Scores 116.9, allows 108.6 over 8 games: +8.3 a game.

40% this season (+8.3) + 60% last season (+8.2) = +8.2

SAC−11.6

Scores 109.2, allows 123.2 over 8 games: −14.0 a game.

40% this season (−14.0) + 60% last season (−10.0) = −11.6

Offensive rating, last 10SAS116.0SAC108.6

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.1).

SAS116.0scored, +3.9 vs league

Factor	SAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.0%	53.3%	−2.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.5%	13.3%	+4.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.8%	27.1%	−0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.228	0.226	+0.1
Everything else			+2.0

SAC108.6scored, −3.5 vs league

Factor	SAC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.3%	53.3%	−1.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.9%	13.3%	−0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.9%	27.1%	−0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.212	0.226	−0.4
Everything else			−0.6

Defensive rating, last 10SAS109.5SAC119.3

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.1).

SAS109.5allowed, −2.7 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.0%	53.3%	+3.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.0%	13.3%	−1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.3%	27.1%	+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.195	0.226	+0.9
Everything else			−0.8

SAC119.3allowed, +7.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.2%	53.3%	−5.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.6%	13.3%	−1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.3%	27.1%	+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.268	0.226	−1.2
Everything else			+0.1

Pace, last 10average 100.5

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

SAS 98.6 and SAC 102.4 → average 100.5 (league 2026-27 to date: 100.5)

Rotation points missingSAS0.0SAC7.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

SAS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-06 18:00 ET. 7 rotation players.

SAC7.0pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Keegan Murray	7.0	27.2	2

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-06 18:00 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestSAS2 daysSAC2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

SAS2days

Last played Nov 4 against DAL.

SAC2days

Last played Nov 4 against LAL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

SAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 4	DAL	112–111	37-95	5-36	33-39	10	22	114.3	112.1	98.5
Nov 2	UTA	119–97	42-91	11-32	24-30	12	9	117.8	96.0	101.0
Oct 31	MIN	121–111	43-87	10-27	25-31	15	16	121.0	111.0	100.0
Oct 28	@UTA	117–111	44-101	12-38	17-21	11	15	108.3	102.8	97.8
Oct 27	SAC	130–103	49-90	17-37	15-19	13	9	130.0	103.0	100.0
Oct 24	@DAL	122–106	48-101	15-42	11-16	12	15	118.4	103.9	102.5
Oct 23	HOU	110–114	40-87	12-37	18-25	15	9	112.2	117.5	97.5
Oct 20	OKC	104–116	36-93	10-37	22-25	13	10	102.0	113.7	102.0
Jun 10	@NYK	106–107	36-86	17-43	17-20	11	12	112.8	115.1	93.5
Jun 8	@NYK	115–111	39-84	12-34	25-32	8	6	123.7	119.4	93.0

SAC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 4	LAL	103–116	35-90	12-38	21-28	17	15	104.0	114.9	100.0
Nov 2	@DAL	115–100	43-82	19-43	10-15	17	10	119.8	103.1	96.5
Oct 31	@MEM	105–136	35-86	11-38	24-29	13	7	100.0	128.3	105.5
Oct 29	@NOP	120–132	46-88	12-37	16-20	25	7	108.1	118.9	111.0
Oct 27	@SAS	103–130	40-93	13-37	10-13	13	13	103.0	130.0	100.0
Oct 25	MEM	112–123	44-95	10-33	14-22	13	16	113.1	121.8	100.0
Oct 23	POR	120–128	42-91	8-32	28-30	14	10	113.2	120.8	106.0
Oct 21	@LAC	96–121	36-85	8-28	16-28	17	11	91.4	116.3	104.5
Apr 12	@POR	110–122	40-83	7-21	23-31	16	15	112.2	123.2	98.5
Apr 10	GSW	124–118	41-89	17-44	25-34	16	16	121.6	115.7	102.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

77%

pregame chance the forecast gave SAS, the winner

SAS was the forecast favorite

5 pts

margin miss

forecast −10, actual −15 for SAC

130th

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

102nd

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.26 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	SAS	SAC
Final score	124	109
Field goals	38–79 · 48.1%	40–82 · 48.8%
Three-pointers	15–30 · 50.0%	16–35 · 45.7%
Free throws	33–42 · 78.6%	13–19 · 68.4%
Rebounds	46	36
Assists	28	33
Turnovers	11	11
Steals	5	6
Blocks	4	4

How the model does with these teams over time: San Antonio Spurs · Sacramento Kings

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (SAC)	−10	−15	−5
Total points	232	233	+1
SAS points	121	124	+3
SAC points	111	109	−2

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-06 18:00 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.