The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 27

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Sacramento Kings at San Antonio Spurs

Tuesday, October 27, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

SAC 0–3@SAS 1–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: SAC 15 percent, SAS 85 percent. SAC Kings 15% proj. 108 · final 103 SAS Spurs · home 85% proj. 123 · final 130
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
SAC Sacramento Kings 108 103 −5
SAS San Antonio Spurs (home) 123 130 +7

Forecast: San Antonio Spurs to win, 85% win probability, projected margin 15.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans SAS

  • Home court+2.1 SASWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+9.4 SASElo SAS 1682, SAC 1342; season margin SAS +6.9, SAC −10.7.
  • Recent form+3.0 SASLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: SAS scores 112.3 and allows 110.8; SAC scores 111.7 and allows 120.2.
  • Player availability+0.3 SASSAC without Keegan Murray (7 ppg).

Together: SAS by 15, a 85% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

SAS is 1–2, about even on points (scoring 112, allowing 112). Last season they were a +8 team, which still counts for 85% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 51% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security +1.2. Their defense holds opponents to 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 3 points per 100 possessions.

SAC is 0–3, losing by 15 a game on average (scoring 109, allowing 124). Last season they were a −10 team, which still counts for 85% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 53% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 2.8 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding +2.3, ball security −1.6. Their defense lets opponents shoot 57% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Keegan Murray (7 ppg) is out.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors SAS; left favors SAC.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength +9.4, Recent form +3.0, Player availability +0.3, No playoff context +0.3, Rest and schedule +0.1, giving +15.2 for SAS. -16-80+8+16 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength +9.4 Recent form +3.0 Player availability +0.3 No playoff context +0.3 Rest and schedule +0.1 Projected margin +15.2
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +15.2. The 85% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputSACSASEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13421682 +1.2
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +410 +7.2
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −10.7+6.9 +1.9
Games played this season 33 −0.9
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 111.7112.3 −0.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 120.2110.8 +1.9
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 99.0 +1.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 7.00.0 +0.3
Rest days 23 +0.1
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueSAS ptsSAC ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court409.7+4.35−2.83+7.18
Season scoring margin (away)-10.7+0.82−0.67+1.48
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)120.2+1.61+0.15+1.46
Combined pace, last 1099.0+0.04−1.23+1.27
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.82−0.14+0.96
Games played (away)3.0+0.16+0.93−0.78
Elo rating (home)1682.1+0.49−0.28+0.77
Rotation points missing (away)7.0−0.17+0.49−0.66
Season scoring margin (home)6.9+0.18−0.27+0.45
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)110.8−0.61−1.04+0.42
Elo rating (away)1342.4+0.26−0.16+0.42
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)112.3−0.36−0.06−0.29
Home series wins0.0+0.27+0.03+0.24
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)111.7−0.01−0.18+0.17
Rest days (home)3.0+0.11−0.02+0.13
Games played (home)3.0+0.35+0.45−0.10
Back-to-back (home)0+0.01−0.01+0.02
Rest days (away)2.0+0.00+0.02−0.02
Series pressure0.0+0.03+0.02+0.01
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingSAC1342SAS16828.4 pts toward SAS

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

SAC1342

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1326 → started this one at 1369
  2. This season's 3 games: −27.0
  • L@LAC96–121−6.8
  • LPOR120–128−6.0
  • LMEM112–123−14.2

SAS1682

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1771 → started this one at 1703
  2. This season's 3 games: −21.2
  • LOKC104–116−15.8
  • LHOU110–114−11.1
  • W@DAL122–106+5.7
Season scoring marginSAC−10.7SAS+6.91.1 pts toward SAS

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

SAC−10.7

Scores 109.3, allows 124.0 over 3 games: −14.7 a game.

15% this season (−14.7) + 85% last season (−10.0) = −10.7

SAS+6.9

Scores 112.0, allows 112.0 over 3 games: ±0.0 a game.

15% this season (±0.0) + 85% last season (+8.2) = +6.9

Offensive rating, last 10SAC111.7SAS112.30.1 pts toward SAC

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

SAC111.7scored, −2.9 vs league

FactorSACLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.6%54.5%−2.8
Turnovers (TOV%)13.3%12.2%−1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)31.1%26.1%+2.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2120.210+0.1
Everything else−0.8

SAS112.3scored, −2.3 vs league

FactorSASLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.1%54.5%−5.2
Turnovers (TOV%)11.3%12.2%+1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.6%26.1%−0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2220.210+0.3
Everything else+2.0
Defensive rating, last 10SAC120.2SAS110.81.9 pts toward SAS

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

SAC120.2allowed, +5.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.4%54.5%−4.4
Turnovers (TOV%)12.2%12.2%±0.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.7%26.1%+0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2310.210−0.6
Everything else−0.8

SAS110.8allowed, −3.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.3%54.5%+3.4
Turnovers (TOV%)12.0%12.2%−0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.1%26.1%+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2110.210−0.0
Everything else−0.1
Pace, last 10average 99.01.3 pts toward SAS

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

SAC 100.0 and SAS 98.0 → average 99.0 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingSAC7.0SAS0.00.3 pts toward SAS

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

SAC7.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Keegan Murray7.027.22

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-27 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

SAS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-27 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestSAC2 daysSAS3 days0.1 pts toward SAS

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

SAC2days

Last played Oct 25 against MEM.

SAS3days

Last played Oct 24 against DAL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

SAC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 25MEM112–12344-9510-3314-221316113.1121.8100.0
Oct 23POR120–12842-918-3228-301410113.2120.8106.0
Oct 21@LAC96–12136-858-2816-28171191.4116.3104.5
Apr 12@POR110–12240-837-2123-311615112.2123.298.5
Apr 10GSW124–11841-8917-4425-341616121.6115.7102.0
Apr 7@GSW105–11041-8711-3112-171413111.7114.695.0
Apr 5LAC109–13845-859-3210-202011105.8135.3102.5
Apr 3NOP117–11346-9010-3315-201411118.2115.398.5
Apr 1@TOR123–11542-9212-3327-291319126.8117.397.5
Mar 29@BKN99–11636-8410-3217-251511103.1122.195.5

SAS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 24@DAL122–10648-10115-4211-161215118.4103.9102.5
Oct 23HOU110–11440-8712-3718-25159112.2117.597.5
Oct 20OKC104–11636-9310-3722-251310102.0113.7102.0
Jun 10@NYK106–10736-8617-4317-201112112.8115.193.5
Jun 8@NYK115–11139-8412-3425-3286123.7119.493.0
Jun 5NYK104–10537-7811-2919-27165105.1108.298.0
Jun 3NYK95–10532-8911-4320-25131496.0105.099.5
May 30@OKC111–10340-8817-4014-191215120.7109.693.0
May 28OKC118–9141-8815-4121-251211119.291.099.5
May 26@OKC114–12737-9212-4128-321515112.9124.5101.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
85%
pregame chance the forecast gave SAS, the winner
SAS was the forecast favorite
12 pts
margin miss
forecast +15, actual +27 for SAS
144th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
54th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.16 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statSACSAS
Final score103130
Field goals40–93 · 43.0%49–90 · 54.4%
Three-pointers13–37 · 35.1%17–37 · 45.9%
Free throws10–13 · 76.9%15–19 · 78.9%
Rebounds3846
Assists2835
Turnovers1313
Steals47
Blocks36

How the model does with these teams over time: Sacramento Kings · San Antonio Spurs

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (SAS)+15+27+12
Total points231233+2
SAC points108103−5
SAS points123130+7

Recent form before this game

Sacramento Kings

DateOpponentResult
Oct 25 vs MEM L 112–123
Oct 23 vs POR L 120–128
Oct 21 at LAC L 96–121
Apr 12 at POR L 110–122
Apr 10 vs GSW W 124–118

San Antonio Spurs

DateOpponentResult
Oct 24 at DAL W 122–106
Oct 23 vs HOU L 110–114
Oct 20 vs OKC L 104–116
Jun 10 at NYK L 106–107
Jun 8 at NYK W 115–111

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 17 2025-26 SAS at SAC SAS 132 – 104 SAC
Feb 21 2025-26 SAC at SAS SAC 122 – 139 SAS
Nov 16 2025-26 SAC at SAS SAC 110 – 123 SAS
Mar 7 2024-25 SAS at SAC SAS 109 – 127 SAC
Dec 6 2024-25 SAC at SAS SAC 140 – 113 SAS