The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 23

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Houston Rockets at San Antonio Spurs

Friday, October 23, 2026 · tip-off 9:30 PM ET

HOU 1–0@SAS 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: HOU 41 percent, SAS 59 percent. HOU Rockets 41% proj. 109 · final 114 SAS Spurs · home 59% proj. 112 · final 110
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
HOU Houston Rockets 109 114 +5
SAS San Antonio Spurs (home) 112 110 −2

Forecast: San Antonio Spurs to win, 59% win probability, projected margin 3.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans SAS

  • Home court+2.1 SASWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Recent form+2.0 HOULast 10 games, per 100 possessions: SAS scores 110.6 and allows 109.1; HOU scores 113.4 and allows 108.9.
  • Team strength+1.9 SASElo SAS 1687, HOU 1571; season margin SAS +7.1, HOU +5.4.

Together: SAS by 3, a 59% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

SAS is 0–1, losing by 12 a game on average (scoring 104, allowing 116). Last season they were a +8 team, which still counts for 95% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 50% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 7 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: getting to the line +1.2, ball security +1.1. Their defense holds opponents to 50% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers −1.2.

HOU is 1–0, winning by 18 a game on average (scoring 128, allowing 110). Last season they were a +5 team, which still counts for 95% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 51% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding +4. Their defense forces turnovers on 14.5% of opponent possessions (league 12.2%), which alone adds about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding +1.6.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors SAS; left favors HOU.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Recent form −2.0, Team strength +1.9, No playoff context +0.2, Rest and schedule +0.1, Player availability +0.1, giving +2.5 for SAS. -4-20+2+4 Model baseline +2.1 Recent form −2.0 Team strength +1.9 No playoff context +0.2 Rest and schedule +0.1 Player availability +0.1 Projected margin +2.5
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +2.5. The 59% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputHOUSASEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15711687 +0.6
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +186 +3.3
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +5.4+7.1 −0.7
Games played this season 11 −1.3
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 113.4110.6 −0.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 108.9109.1 −0.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 96.9 −1.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0 +0.1
Rest days 23 +0.1
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueSAS ptsHOU ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court186.4+1.38−1.89+3.28
Combined pace, last 1096.9−4.03−2.85−1.19
Games played (away)1.0+0.27+1.32−1.05
Season scoring margin (away)5.4−0.87+0.17−1.04
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)108.9−1.14−0.17−0.97
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.73−0.12+0.85
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.21+0.52−0.73
Elo rating (home)1687.5+0.57−0.07+0.63
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)109.1−0.46−1.05+0.59
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)110.6−0.26+0.12−0.38
Season scoring margin (home)7.1+0.08−0.28+0.36
Games played (home)1.0+0.68+0.92−0.24
Home series wins0.0+0.23+0.04+0.19
Rest days (home)3.0+0.10−0.03+0.13
Series pressure0.0+0.07+0.03+0.05
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)113.4+0.02+0.06−0.05
Back-to-back (home)0+0.04−0.01+0.04
Elo rating (away)1571.1−0.02+0.01−0.03
Rest days (away)2.0−0.01+0.01−0.02
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingHOU1571SAS16873.9 pts toward SAS

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

HOU1571

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1588 → started this one at 1566
  2. This season's 1 game: +4.9
  • WDAL128–110+4.9

SAS1687

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1771 → started this one at 1703
  2. This season's 1 game: −15.8
  • LOKC104–116−15.8
Season scoring marginHOU+5.4SAS+7.12.0 pts toward HOU

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

HOU+5.4

Scores 128.0, allows 110.0 over 1 game: +18.0 a game.

5% this season (+18.0) + 95% last season (+4.7) = +5.4

SAS+7.1

Scores 104.0, allows 116.0 over 1 game: −12.0 a game.

5% this season (−12.0) + 95% last season (+8.2) = +7.1

Offensive rating, last 10HOU113.4SAS110.60.4 pts toward HOU

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

HOU113.4scored, −1.2 vs league

FactorHOULeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.0%54.5%−5.3
Turnovers (TOV%)11.5%12.2%+1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)34.5%26.1%+3.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2160.210+0.2
Everything else−0.9

SAS110.6scored, −4.0 vs league

FactorSASLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)49.8%54.5%−7.2
Turnovers (TOV%)11.4%12.2%+1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.5%26.1%−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2510.210+1.2
Everything else+1.6
Defensive rating, last 10HOU108.9SAS109.10.4 pts toward HOU

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

HOU108.9allowed, −5.7 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.9%54.5%−0.6
Turnovers (TOV%)14.5%12.2%+3.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.4%26.1%+1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2250.210−0.4
Everything else+1.7

SAS109.1allowed, −5.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.4%54.5%+6.2
Turnovers (TOV%)11.3%12.2%−1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.1%26.1%+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2220.210−0.3
Everything else+0.0
Pace, last 10average 96.91.2 pts toward HOU

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

HOU 95.8 and SAS 98.0 → average 96.9 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingHOU0.0SAS0.00.1 pts toward SAS

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

HOU0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-23 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

SAS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-23 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestHOU2 daysSAS3 days0.1 pts toward SAS

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

HOU2days

Last played Oct 21 against DAL.

SAS3days

Last played Oct 20 against OKC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

HOU

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 21DAL128–11047-8816-3618-251517130.6111.198.5
May 1LAL78–9828-805-2817-2411883.9106.592.5
Apr 29@LAL99–9333-7514-4019-25106110.0103.390.0
Apr 26LAL115–9639-8112-3025-311311122.3103.293.5
Apr 24LAL108–11240-9811-3917-231518104.9105.794.6
Apr 21@LAL94–10136-897-2915-191517105.6112.289.5
Apr 18@LAL98–10735-9311-3317-251321104.3113.894.0
Apr 12MEM132–10148-10514-4922-301119128.298.1103.0
Apr 10MIN132–13653-874-1922-281211133.3136.099.5
Apr 9PHI113–10242-9311-3218-261516110.899.0102.5

SAS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 20OKC104–11636-9310-3722-251310102.0113.7102.0
Jun 10@NYK106–10736-8617-4317-201112112.8115.193.5
Jun 8@NYK115–11139-8412-3425-3286123.7119.493.0
Jun 5NYK104–10537-7811-2919-27165105.1108.298.0
Jun 3NYK95–10532-8911-4320-25131496.0105.099.5
May 30@OKC111–10340-8817-4014-191215120.7109.693.0
May 28OKC118–9141-8815-4121-251211119.291.099.5
May 26@OKC114–12737-9212-4128-321515112.9124.5101.5
May 24OKC103–8235-909-3324-321214102.080.4101.5
May 22OKC108–12334-8013-4127-33159111.3124.298.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
41%
pregame chance the forecast gave HOU, the winner
the forecast favored SAS
7 pts
margin miss
forecast +3, actual −4 for SAS
28th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
88th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.88 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statHOUSAS
Final score114110
Field goals38–78 · 48.7%40–87 · 46.0%
Three-pointers10–25 · 40.0%12–37 · 32.4%
Free throws28–31 · 90.3%18–25 · 72.0%
Rebounds4440
Assists2421
Turnovers1515
Steals1110
Blocks53

How the model does with these teams over time: Houston Rockets · San Antonio Spurs

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (SAS)+3−4−7
Total points221224+3
HOU points109114+5
SAS points112110−2

Recent form before this game

Houston Rockets

DateOpponentResult
Oct 21 vs DAL W 128–110
May 1 vs LAL L 78–98
Apr 29 at LAL W 99–93
Apr 26 vs LAL W 115–96
Apr 24 vs LAL L 108–112

San Antonio Spurs

DateOpponentResult
Oct 20 vs OKC L 104–116
Jun 10 at NYK L 106–107
Jun 8 at NYK W 115–111
Jun 5 vs NYK L 104–105
Jun 3 vs NYK L 95–105

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 8 2025-26 HOU at SAS HOU 120 – 145 SAS
Jan 28 2025-26 SAS at HOU SAS 111 – 99 HOU
Jan 20 2025-26 SAS at HOU SAS 106 – 111 HOU
Nov 7 2025-26 HOU at SAS HOU 110 – 121 SAS
Feb 26 2024-25 SAS at HOU SAS 106 – 118 HOU