The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 30

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors

Friday, October 30, 2026 · tip-off 10:00 PM ET

LAL 4–1@GSW 2–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: LAL 56 percent, GSW 44 percent. LAL Lakers 56% proj. 116 · final 95 GSW Golden State Warriors · home 44% proj. 114 · final 112
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
LAL Los Angeles Lakers 116 95 −21
GSW Golden State Warriors (home) 114 112 −2

Forecast: Los Angeles Lakers to win, 56% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans LAL

  • Home court+2.1 GSWWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+3.8 LALElo GSW 1465, LAL 1585; season margin GSW −0.9, LAL +3.2.
  • Recent form+0.7 LALLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: GSW scores 116.3 and allows 119.8; LAL scores 115.5 and allows 114.6.

Together: LAL by 2, a 56% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

LAL is 4–1, winning by 10 a game on average (scoring 123, allowing 114). Last season they were a +1 team, which still counts for 75% of their season margin. Their offense turns it over on 15.1% of possessions (league 12.2%), which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting +4, getting to the line +1.3. Their defense forces turnovers on 13.7% of opponent possessions (league 12.2%), which alone adds about 2.1 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting defense −1.4. Ziaire Williams (11 ppg) is out.

GSW is 2–3, losing by 2 a game on average (scoring 118, allowing 119). Last season they were a −1 team, which still counts for 75% of their season margin. Their offense turns it over on 13.8% of possessions (league 12.2%), which alone costs about 2.3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: getting to the line +1.4, offensive rebounding +1.1. Their defense lets opponents shoot 59% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 7 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +2.5, defensive rebounding −1.4.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors GSW; left favors LAL.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −3.8, Recent form −0.7, No playoff context +0.3, Player availability +0.3, Rest and schedule +0.0, giving −1.8 for GSW. -4-20+2+4 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −3.8 Recent form −0.7 No playoff context +0.3 Player availability +0.3 Rest and schedule +0.0 Projected margin −1.8
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin −1.8. The 56% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputLALGSWEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15851465 −0.1
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −50 −2.7
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +3.2−0.9 −0.8
Games played this season 55 −0.3
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 115.5116.3 +0.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 114.6119.8 −0.8
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 98.2 −0.1
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 11.30.0 +0.3
Rest days 22 −0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueGSW ptsLAL ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court-50.2−0.95+1.72−2.67
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)119.8+0.25+1.61−1.36
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.75−0.08+0.84
Season scoring margin (home)-0.9−0.39+0.26−0.65
Rotation points missing (away)11.3−0.06+0.52−0.58
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)114.6+0.56+0.01+0.55
Games played (away)5.0+0.17+0.60−0.43
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)116.3+0.24−0.05+0.29
Home series wins0.0+0.36+0.11+0.24
Season scoring margin (away)3.2+0.08+0.23−0.16
Combined pace, last 1098.2−1.74−1.61−0.13
Elo rating (home)1465.3−0.09+0.04−0.12
Games played (home)5.0+0.12+0.01+0.11
Elo rating (away)1585.5+0.12+0.05+0.07
Series pressure0.0+0.05−0.01+0.06
Back-to-back (home)0+0.04−0.00+0.05
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)115.5+0.04+0.07−0.03
Rest days (away)2.0−0.01+0.01−0.03
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Rest days (home)2.0+0.01+0.01+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingLAL1585GSW14652.7 pts toward LAL

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

LAL1585

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1586 → started this one at 1564
  2. This season's 5 games: +21.2
  • WGSW127–105+7.5
  • WLAC125–117+5.9
  • W@UTA132–123+4.5
  • LPOR129–136−12.2
  • W@LAC103–87+15.5

GSW1465

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1422 → started this one at 1442
  2. This season's 5 games: +23.7
  • L@LAL105–127−7.5
  • LMEM108–111−9.2
  • L@PHX122–131−5.2
  • W@DEN134–114+32.3
  • W@MIN119–114+13.3
Season scoring marginLAL+3.2GSW−0.91.1 pts toward LAL

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

LAL+3.2

Scores 123.2, allows 113.6 over 5 games: +9.6 a game.

25% this season (+9.6) + 75% last season (+1.0) = +3.2

GSW−0.9

Scores 117.6, allows 119.4 over 5 games: −1.8 a game.

25% this season (−1.8) + 75% last season (−0.6) = −0.9

Offensive rating, last 10LAL115.5GSW116.30.3 pts toward GSW

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

LAL115.5scored, +0.9 vs league

FactorLALLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.3%54.5%+4.2
Turnovers (TOV%)15.1%12.2%−4.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.0%26.1%−0.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2550.210+1.3
Everything else−0.3

GSW116.3scored, +1.7 vs league

FactorGSWLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.1%54.5%−0.6
Turnovers (TOV%)13.8%12.2%−2.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.5%26.1%+1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2600.210+1.4
Everything else+2.0
Defensive rating, last 10LAL114.6GSW119.80.8 pts toward LAL

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

LAL114.6allowed, ±0.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.4%54.5%−1.4
Turnovers (TOV%)13.7%12.2%+2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.5%26.1%−0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2280.210−0.5
Everything else+0.4

GSW119.8allowed, +5.2 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)59.2%54.5%−7.1
Turnovers (TOV%)13.9%12.2%+2.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.3%26.1%−1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2000.210+0.3
Everything else+0.6
Pace, last 10average 98.20.1 pts toward LAL

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

LAL 97.8 and GSW 98.5 → average 98.2 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingLAL11.3GSW0.00.3 pts toward GSW

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

LAL11.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Ziaire Williams11.228.44

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-30 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

GSW0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-30 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestLAL2 daysGSW2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

LAL2days

Last played Oct 28 against LAC.

GSW2days

Last played Oct 28 against MIN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

LAL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 28@LAC103–8735-799-3124-331917105.189.797.5
Oct 27POR129–13645-8017-4322-30156129.0133.3101.0
Oct 25@UTA132–12340-8220-4732-38105130.7120.6101.5
Oct 23LAC125–11746-7914-3219-25218122.5113.6102.5
Oct 21GSW127–10546-8111-2824-271810124.5102.9102.0
May 11OKC110–11538-7510-2824-27197112.2117.398.0
May 9OKC108–13138-8114-3018-251614117.4140.992.5
May 7@OKC107–12539-7811-2918-212010111.5127.697.0
May 5@OKC90–10835-8510-3010-13171295.7116.193.5
May 1@HOU98–7836-8912-2814-241015106.583.992.5

GSW

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 28@MIN119–11439-8911-3530-371713110.2105.6108.0
Oct 26@DEN134–11446-8522-4420-211713139.6117.596.5
Oct 24@PHX122–13141-9117-3923-321619119.6129.7101.5
Oct 23MEM108–11134-8314-4126-291918108.0112.199.5
Oct 21@LAL105–12738-928-3621-271515102.9124.5102.0
Apr 12@LAC110–11536-8611-3927-32913117.0121.194.5
Apr 10@SAC118–12439-8114-3626-28165115.7121.6102.0
Apr 9LAL103–11941-819-3012-12199112.0129.392.0
Apr 7SAC110–10537-8217-3819-241710114.6111.795.0
Apr 5HOU116–11742-8414-4018-20106123.4124.594.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
44%
pregame chance the forecast gave GSW, the winner
the forecast favored LAL
19 pts
margin miss
forecast −2, actual +17 for GSW
35th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
32nd
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.82 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statLALGSW
Final score95112
Field goals33–82 · 40.2%38–89 · 42.7%
Three-pointers11–39 · 28.2%22–46 · 47.8%
Free throws18–24 · 75.0%14–17 · 82.4%
Rebounds4544
Assists1831
Turnovers2015
Steals811
Blocks115

How the model does with these teams over time: Los Angeles Lakers · Golden State Warriors

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (GSW)−2+17+19
Total points230207−23
LAL points11695−21
GSW points114112−2

Recent form before this game

Los Angeles Lakers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 28 at LAC W 103–87
Oct 27 vs POR L 129–136
Oct 25 at UTA W 132–123
Oct 23 vs LAC W 125–117
Oct 21 vs GSW W 127–105

Golden State Warriors

DateOpponentResult
Oct 28 at MIN W 119–114
Oct 26 at DEN W 134–114
Oct 24 at PHX L 122–131
Oct 23 vs MEM L 108–111
Oct 21 at LAL L 105–127

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Oct 21 2026-27 GSW at LAL GSW 105 – 127 LAL
Apr 9 2025-26 LAL at GSW LAL 119 – 103 GSW
Feb 28 2025-26 LAL at GSW LAL 129 – 101 GSW
Feb 7 2025-26 GSW at LAL GSW 99 – 105 LAL
Oct 21 2025-26 GSW at LAL GSW 119 – 109 LAL