The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 21

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers

Wednesday, October 21, 2026 · tip-off 10:00 PM ET

GSW 0–0@LAL 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: GSW 33 percent, LAL 67 percent. GSW Golden State Warriors 33% proj. 110 · final 105 LAL Lakers · home 67% proj. 116 · final 127
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
GSW Golden State Warriors 110 105 −5
LAL Los Angeles Lakers (home) 116 127 +11

Forecast: Los Angeles Lakers to win, 67% win probability, projected margin 6.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans LAL

  • Home court+2.1 LALWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+2.1 LALElo LAL 1564, GSW 1442; season margin LAL +1.0, GSW −0.6.
  • Recent form+1.1 LALLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: LAL scores 108.2 and allows 113.3; GSW scores 113.6 and allows 120.0.

Together: LAL by 6, a 67% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

LAL hasn't played this season yet; last season they were a +1 team. Their offense turns it over on 16.2% of possessions (league 12.2%), which alone costs about 6 points per 100 possessions. Their defense holds opponents to 53% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 2.8 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers −1.1.

GSW hasn't played this season yet; last season they were a −1 team. Their offense rebounds 21% of its own misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 2.1 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −2.0, shooting +1.5. Their defense lets opponents shoot 59% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 7 points per 100 possessions.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors LAL; left favors GSW.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength +2.1, Recent form +1.1, No playoff context +0.4, Rest and schedule +0.2, Player availability +0.1, giving +6.0 for LAL. -8-40+4+8 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength +2.1 Recent form +1.1 No playoff context +0.4 Rest and schedule +0.2 Player availability +0.1 Projected margin +6.0
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +6.0. The 67% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputGSWLALEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 14421564 +0.7
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +193 +3.2
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −0.6+1.0 +0.1
Games played this season 00 −1.9
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 113.6108.2 −0.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 120.0113.3 +2.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 95.7 −0.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0 +0.1
Rest days 55 +0.1
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueLAL ptsGSW ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court192.5+1.49−1.75+3.24
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)120.0+1.96+0.16+1.80
Games played (away)0.0+0.17+1.62−1.45
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.77−0.12+0.89
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.24+0.57−0.81
Combined pace, last 1095.7−3.91−3.21−0.70
Games played (home)0.0+0.73+1.16−0.43
Home series wins0.0+0.38+0.02+0.36
Elo rating (home)1564.2+0.08−0.27+0.35
Elo rating (away)1441.7+0.16−0.16+0.32
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)108.2−0.46−0.23−0.23
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)113.3−0.17−0.37+0.20
Rest days (home)5.0+0.06−0.09+0.14
Season scoring margin (home)1.0+0.08±0.00+0.08
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)113.6+0.12+0.06+0.06
Season scoring margin (away)-0.6+0.10+0.06+0.03
Back-to-back (home)0+0.03−0.01+0.03
Series pressure0.0+0.04+0.01+0.03
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Rest days (away)5.0−0.07−0.07−0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingGSW1442LAL15643.9 pts toward LAL

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

GSW1442

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1422 → started this one at 1442
  2. No games played yet this season.

LAL1564

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1586 → started this one at 1564
  2. No games played yet this season.
Season scoring marginGSW−0.6LAL+1.01.8 pts toward GSW

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

GSW−0.6

No games played yet this season.

0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (−0.6) = −0.6

LAL+1.0

No games played yet this season.

0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (+1.0) = +1.0

Offensive rating, last 10GSW113.6LAL108.20.2 pts toward GSW

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

GSW113.6scored, −1.0 vs league

FactorGSWLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.5%54.5%+1.5
Turnovers (TOV%)13.6%12.2%−2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.4%26.1%−2.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2390.210+0.8
Everything else+0.9

LAL108.2scored, −6.4 vs league

FactorLALLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.3%54.5%−0.3
Turnovers (TOV%)16.2%12.2%−5.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.7%26.1%−0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2430.210+1.0
Everything else−1.3
Defensive rating, last 10GSW120.0LAL113.32.0 pts toward LAL

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

GSW120.0allowed, +5.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)59.4%54.5%−7.3
Turnovers (TOV%)12.7%12.2%+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.4%26.1%+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1760.210+1.0
Everything else−0.2

LAL113.3allowed, −1.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.7%54.5%+2.8
Turnovers (TOV%)11.4%12.2%−1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.0%26.1%−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2020.210+0.2
Everything else+0.3
Pace, last 10average 95.70.7 pts toward GSW

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

GSW 97.9 and LAL 93.5 → average 95.7 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingGSW0.0LAL0.00.1 pts toward LAL

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

GSW0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-21 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

LAL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-21 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestGSW5 daysLAL5 days0.2 pts toward LAL

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

GSW5days

Last played Apr 12 against LAC (192 days, capped at 5).

LAL5days

Last played May 11 against OKC (163 days, capped at 5).

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

GSW

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 12@LAC110–11536-8611-3927-32913117.0121.194.5
Apr 10@SAC118–12439-8114-3626-28165115.7121.6102.0
Apr 9LAL103–11941-819-3012-12199112.0129.392.0
Apr 7SAC110–10537-8217-3819-241710114.6111.795.0
Apr 5HOU116–11742-8414-4018-20106123.4124.594.0
Apr 2CLE111–11841-9412-4417-201212109.9116.8101.0
Apr 1SAS113–12742-8614-3515-18132111.9125.7101.0
Mar 29@DEN93–11635-8314-429-11137100.0124.793.0
Mar 27WAS131–12644-8519-4424-31129126.0121.2104.0
Mar 25BKN109–10636-689-2728-36267105.8103.9102.5

LAL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
May 11OKC110–11538-7510-2824-27197112.2117.398.0
May 9OKC108–13138-8114-3018-251614117.4140.992.5
May 7@OKC107–12539-7811-2918-212010111.5127.697.0
May 5@OKC90–10835-8510-3010-13171295.7116.193.5
May 1@HOU98–7836-8912-2814-241015106.583.992.5
Apr 29HOU93–9932-767-2722-271513103.3110.090.0
Apr 26@HOU96–11537-745-2217-212310103.2122.393.5
Apr 24@HOU112–10838-7912-2924-32209105.7104.994.6
Apr 21HOU101–9433-7213-2822-28129112.2105.689.5
Apr 18HOU107–9840-6610-1917-26183113.8104.394.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
67%
pregame chance the forecast gave LAL, the winner
LAL was the forecast favorite
16 pts
margin miss
forecast +6, actual +22 for LAL
94th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
38th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.40 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statGSWLAL
Final score105127
Field goals38–92 · 41.3%46–81 · 56.8%
Three-pointers8–36 · 22.2%11–28 · 39.3%
Free throws21–27 · 77.8%24–27 · 88.9%
Rebounds3643
Assists2528
Turnovers1518
Steals1511
Blocks25

How the model does with these teams over time: Golden State Warriors · Los Angeles Lakers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (LAL)+6+22+16
Total points226232+6
GSW points110105−5
LAL points116127+11

Recent form before this game

Golden State Warriors

DateOpponentResult
Apr 12 at LAC L 110–115
Apr 10 at SAC L 118–124
Apr 9 vs LAL L 103–119
Apr 7 vs SAC W 110–105
Apr 5 vs HOU L 116–117

Los Angeles Lakers

DateOpponentResult
May 11 vs OKC L 110–115
May 9 vs OKC L 108–131
May 7 at OKC L 107–125
May 5 at OKC L 90–108
May 1 at HOU W 98–78

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 9 2025-26 LAL at GSW LAL 119 – 103 GSW
Feb 28 2025-26 LAL at GSW LAL 129 – 101 GSW
Feb 7 2025-26 GSW at LAL GSW 99 – 105 LAL
Oct 21 2025-26 GSW at LAL GSW 119 – 109 LAL
Apr 3 2024-25 GSW at LAL GSW 123 – 116 LAL