The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 27

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers

Tuesday, October 27, 2026 · tip-off 11:00 PM ET

POR 2–0@LAL 3–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: POR 47 percent, LAL 53 percent. POR Trail Blazers 47% proj. 111 · final 136 LAL Lakers · home 53% proj. 112 · final 129
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
POR Portland Trail Blazers 111 136 +25
LAL Los Angeles Lakers (home) 112 129 +17

Forecast: Los Angeles Lakers to win, 53% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans LAL

  • Home court+2.1 LALWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Recent form+3.3 PORLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: LAL scores 112.8 and allows 115.5; POR scores 110.4 and allows 110.8.
  • Team strength+1.1 LALElo LAL 1582, POR 1539; season margin LAL +2.8, POR +1.6.

Together: LAL by 1, a 53% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

LAL is 3–0, winning by 13 a game on average (scoring 128, allowing 115). Last season they were a +1 team, which still counts for 85% of their season margin. Their offense turns it over on 15.7% of possessions (league 12.2%), which alone costs about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting +1.6, getting to the line +1.1. Their defense is close to league average on all four factors.

POR is 2–0, winning by 24 a game on average (scoring 126, allowing 102). Last season they were a −1 team, which still counts for 90% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 51% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding +1.4, ball security +1.1. Their defense holds opponents to 53% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 2.3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +1.4.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors LAL; left favors POR.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Recent form −3.3, Team strength +1.1, No playoff context +0.3, Player availability +0.1, Rest and schedule +0.1, giving +0.3 for LAL. -4-20+2+4 Model baseline +2.1 Recent form −3.3 Team strength +1.1 No playoff context +0.3 Player availability +0.1 Rest and schedule +0.1 Projected margin +0.3
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +0.3. The 53% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputPORLALEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15391582 +0.2
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +113 +1.1
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +1.6+2.8 +0.2
Games played this season 23 −0.4
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 110.4112.8 +0.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 110.8115.5 −2.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 97.3 −0.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0 +0.1
Rest days 42 +0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueLAL ptsPOR ptsMargin
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)110.8−1.73−0.19−1.54
Elo gap incl. home court113.3+0.48−0.60+1.09
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)115.5+0.29+1.35−1.06
Combined pace, last 1097.3−3.41−2.50−0.91
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.77−0.07+0.84
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.19+0.56−0.76
Games played (away)2.0+0.28+0.93−0.65
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)110.4−0.06−0.52+0.45
Season scoring margin (home)2.8+0.17−0.13+0.30
Elo rating (home)1582.1+0.07−0.17+0.24
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)112.8−0.28−0.05−0.23
Games played (home)3.0+0.38+0.16+0.23
Home series wins0.0+0.25+0.06+0.19
Season scoring margin (away)1.6−0.01+0.11−0.12
Series pressure0.0+0.07+0.01+0.06
Rest days (away)4.0+0.03−0.01+0.04
Back-to-back (home)0+0.01−0.01+0.02
Elo rating (away)1538.8−0.03−0.01−0.02
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Rest days (home)2.0+0.02+0.02+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPOR1539LAL15821.3 pts toward LAL

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

POR1539

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1514 → started this one at 1511
  2. This season's 2 games: +28.0
  • WPHX124–83+22.0
  • W@SAC128–120+6.0

LAL1582

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1586 → started this one at 1564
  2. This season's 3 games: +17.9
  • WGSW127–105+7.5
  • WLAC125–117+5.9
  • W@UTA132–123+4.5
Season scoring marginPOR+1.6LAL+2.80.2 pts toward POR

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

POR+1.6

Scores 126.0, allows 101.5 over 2 games: +24.5 a game.

10% this season (+24.5) + 90% last season (−1.0) = +1.6

LAL+2.8

Scores 128.0, allows 115.0 over 3 games: +13.0 a game.

15% this season (+13.0) + 85% last season (+1.0) = +2.8

Offensive rating, last 10POR110.4LAL112.80.2 pts toward LAL

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

POR110.4scored, −4.2 vs league

FactorPORLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.5%54.5%−6.0
Turnovers (TOV%)11.4%12.2%+1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.3%26.1%+1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1880.210−0.7
Everything else−0.1

LAL112.8scored, −1.8 vs league

FactorLALLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.6%54.5%+1.6
Turnovers (TOV%)15.7%12.2%−5.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.8%26.1%+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2490.210+1.1
Everything else+0.1
Defensive rating, last 10POR110.8LAL115.52.6 pts toward POR

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

POR110.8allowed, −3.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.0%54.5%+2.3
Turnovers (TOV%)13.2%12.2%+1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.5%26.1%−0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2210.210−0.3
Everything else+0.6

LAL115.5allowed, +0.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.1%54.5%−0.8
Turnovers (TOV%)12.5%12.2%+0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.2%26.1%−0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2170.210−0.2
Everything else+0.2
Pace, last 10average 97.30.9 pts toward POR

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

POR 98.3 and LAL 96.3 → average 97.3 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingPOR0.0LAL0.00.1 pts toward LAL

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

POR0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-27 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

LAL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-27 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestPOR4 daysLAL2 days0.1 pts toward LAL

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

POR4days

Last played Oct 23 against SAC.

LAL2days

Last played Oct 25 against UTA.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

POR

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 23@SAC128–12046-9614-4822-30913120.8113.2106.0
Oct 21PHX124–8345-9419-4715-181716126.586.597.0
Apr 28@SAS95–11433-9411-4718-2391499.0121.395.0
Apr 26SAS93–11432-8010-3119-2318793.0116.399.0
Apr 24SAS108–12037-9014-3820-291016109.1122.498.5
Apr 21@SAS106–10338-8913-3817-231515108.2106.297.5
Apr 19@SAS98–11139-9110-3810-12108102.1116.895.5
Apr 12SAC122–11047-10116-4612-151218123.2112.298.5
Apr 10LAC116–9737-8312-3930-351314122.1102.195.0
Apr 8@SAS101–11242-9312-375-101611100.0110.9101.0

LAL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 25@UTA132–12340-8220-4732-38105130.7120.6101.5
Oct 23LAC125–11746-7914-3219-25218122.5113.6102.5
Oct 21GSW127–10546-8111-2824-271810124.5102.9102.0
May 11OKC110–11538-7510-2824-27197112.2117.398.0
May 9OKC108–13138-8114-3018-251614117.4140.992.5
May 7@OKC107–12539-7811-2918-212010111.5127.697.0
May 5@OKC90–10835-8510-3010-13171295.7116.193.5
May 1@HOU98–7836-8912-2814-241015106.583.992.5
Apr 29HOU93–9932-767-2722-271513103.3110.090.0
Apr 26@HOU96–11537-745-2217-212310103.2122.393.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
47%
pregame chance the forecast gave POR, the winner
the forecast favored LAL
8 pts
margin miss
forecast +1, actual −7 for LAL
45th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
79th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.75 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statPORLAL
Final score136129
Field goals46–78 · 59.0%45–80 · 56.3%
Three-pointers18–36 · 50.0%17–43 · 39.5%
Free throws26–41 · 63.4%22–30 · 73.3%
Rebounds3831
Assists3028
Turnovers1415
Steals56
Blocks24

How the model does with these teams over time: Portland Trail Blazers · Los Angeles Lakers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (LAL)+1−7−8
Total points223265+42
POR points111136+25
LAL points112129+17

Recent form before this game

Portland Trail Blazers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 23 at SAC W 128–120
Oct 21 vs PHX W 124–83
Apr 28 at SAS L 95–114
Apr 26 vs SAS L 93–114
Apr 24 vs SAS L 108–120

Los Angeles Lakers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 25 at UTA W 132–123
Oct 23 vs LAC W 125–117
Oct 21 vs GSW W 127–105
May 11 vs OKC L 110–115
May 9 vs OKC L 108–131

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Jan 17 2025-26 LAL at POR LAL 116 – 132 POR
Nov 3 2025-26 LAL at POR LAL 123 – 115 POR
Oct 27 2025-26 POR at LAL POR 122 – 108 LAL
Apr 13 2024-25 LAL at POR LAL 81 – 109 POR
Feb 20 2024-25 LAL at POR LAL 110 – 102 POR