The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 2

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Boston Celtics at Houston Rockets

Monday, November 2, 2026 · tip-off 8:30 PM ET

BOS 5–1@HOU 6–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: BOS 47 percent, HOU 53 percent. BOS Celtics 47% proj. 109 · final 93 HOU Rockets · home 53% proj. 110 · final 109
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
BOS Boston Celtics 109 93 −16
HOU Houston Rockets (home) 110 109 −1

Forecast: Houston Rockets to win, 53% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans HOU

  • Home court+2.1 HOUWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+1.2 BOSElo HOU 1619, BOS 1621; season margin HOU +7.4, BOS +8.0.
  • Recent form+0.8 BOSLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: HOU scores 116.5 and allows 107.6; BOS scores 114.6 and allows 109.1.
  • Player availability+0.4 HOUBOS without Paul George (21 ppg).

Together: HOU by 1, a 53% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

HOU is 6–1, winning by 12 a game on average (scoring 121, allowing 108). Last season they were a +5 team, which still counts for 65% of their season margin. Their offense makes 26 free throws per 100 shots (league 21), which alone adds about 1.5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding +1.2. Their defense holds opponents to 51% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +2.7.

BOS is 5–1, winning by 10 a game on average (scoring 119, allowing 109). Last season they were a +7 team, which still counts for 70% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 53% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 1.6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security +1.1. Their defense holds opponents to 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 4 points per 100 possessions. Paul George (21 ppg) is out. They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors HOU; left favors BOS.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −1.2, Recent form −0.8, Player availability +0.4, No playoff context +0.2, Rest and schedule +0.1, giving +0.9 for HOU. -4-20+2+4 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −1.2 Recent form −0.8 Player availability +0.4 No playoff context +0.2 Rest and schedule +0.1 Projected margin +0.9
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +0.9. The 53% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputBOSHOUEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16211619 +0.5
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +67 −0.2
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +8.0+7.4 −0.9
Games played this season 67 −0.6
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 114.6116.5 +0.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 109.1107.6 +0.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 97.5 −1.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 20.70.0 +0.4
Rest days 12 +0.0
Second night of a back-to-back YesNo +0.1
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueHOU ptsBOS ptsMargin
Combined pace, last 1097.5−3.91−2.21−1.70
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)107.6−0.44−2.11+1.67
Season scoring margin (away)8.0−1.01+0.24−1.25
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)109.1−1.07−0.11−0.96
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.82−0.12+0.94
Games played (away)6.0+0.26+0.80−0.54
Rotation points missing (away)20.7−0.03+0.50−0.53
Elo rating (home)1618.7+0.09−0.31+0.40
Season scoring margin (home)7.4+0.10−0.29+0.39
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)116.5+0.34−0.04+0.38
Elo gap incl. home court67.3−0.87−0.64−0.23
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)114.6+0.06+0.27−0.21
Home series wins0.0+0.26+0.05+0.21
Elo rating (away)1621.4+0.09−0.07+0.15
Games played (home)7.0+0.09+0.15−0.07
Back-to-back (home)0+0.04−0.01+0.05
Rest days (away)1.0+0.04+0.00+0.04
Series pressure0.0+0.10+0.07+0.02
Rest days (home)2.0+0.02+0.02+0.00
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)1±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingBOS1621HOU16190.3 pts toward HOU

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

BOS1621

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1635 → started this one at 1601
  2. This season's 6 games: +20.0
  • L@DET113–121−6.7
  • WNYK107–103+7.1
  • WCHI134–99+5.9
  • WBKN125–124+0.6
  • WCHI125–111+2.8
  • W@ORL108–97+10.3

HOU1619

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1588 → started this one at 1566
  2. This season's 7 games: +52.5
  • WDAL128–110+4.9
  • W@SAS114–110+11.1
  • W@ATL121–114+10.8
  • WATL120–110+7.3
  • W@MIL132–100+11.2
  • L@DAL111–116−9.8
  • WOKC119–98+17.0
Season scoring marginBOS+8.0HOU+7.41.5 pts toward BOS

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

BOS+8.0

Scores 118.7, allows 109.2 over 6 games: +9.5 a game.

30% this season (+9.5) + 70% last season (+7.3) = +8.0

HOU+7.4

Scores 120.7, allows 108.3 over 7 games: +12.4 a game.

35% this season (+12.4) + 65% last season (+4.7) = +7.4

Offensive rating, last 10BOS114.6HOU116.50.2 pts toward HOU

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

BOS114.6scored, +0.0 vs league

FactorBOSLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.4%54.5%−1.6
Turnovers (TOV%)11.4%12.2%+1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.9%26.1%+0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2140.210+0.1
Everything else+0.1

HOU116.5scored, +2.0 vs league

FactorHOULeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.5%54.5%−0.1
Turnovers (TOV%)12.3%12.2%−0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.7%26.1%+1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2630.210+1.5
Everything else−0.5
Defensive rating, last 10BOS109.1HOU107.60.7 pts toward HOU

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

BOS109.1allowed, −5.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.8%54.5%+4.1
Turnovers (TOV%)12.5%12.2%+0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.2%26.1%+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2360.210−0.8
Everything else+0.8

HOU107.6allowed, −7.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.3%54.5%+4.8
Turnovers (TOV%)14.1%12.2%+2.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.9%26.1%−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1970.210+0.4
Everything else−0.1
Pace, last 10average 97.51.7 pts toward BOS

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

BOS 97.8 and HOU 97.3 → average 97.5 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingBOS20.7HOU0.00.4 pts toward HOU

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

BOS20.7pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Paul George20.731.06

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-02 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

HOU0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-02 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestBOS1 daysHOU2 days0.1 pts toward HOU

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

BOS1day, back-to-back

Last played Nov 1 against ORL.

HOU2days

Last played Oct 31 against OKC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

BOS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 1@ORL108–9737-8412-4422-261214116.1104.393.0
Oct 30CHI125–11142-8210-3231-40149121.4106.7103.5
Oct 27BKN125–12442-9311-4130-381411112.6111.7100.5
Oct 26CHI134–9946-9321-4421-292419126.492.5106.5
Oct 23NYK107–10340-8715-3912-161010116.3110.892.5
Oct 20@DET113–12140-8817-4216-211412113.0119.8100.5
May 2PHI100–10937-9313-4913-16510105.3116.094.5
Apr 30@PHI93–10636-8612-419-1613893.0107.199.5
Apr 28PHI97–11336-8911-3914-231215103.2120.294.0
Apr 26@PHI128–9642-8724-5320-281214139.1102.193.0

HOU

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 31OKC119–9841-9018-4119-231013126.6104.394.0
Oct 30@DAL111–11640-967-2924-331220109.9116.0100.5
Oct 28@MIL132–10046-8417-3823-26148129.498.0102.0
Oct 26ATL120–11043-818-2726-322112114.3105.8104.5
Oct 24@ATL121–11443-8914-3521-231413121.0115.299.5
Oct 23@SAS114–11038-7810-2528-31158117.5112.297.5
Oct 21DAL128–11047-8816-3618-251517130.6111.198.5
May 1LAL78–9828-805-2817-2411883.9106.592.5
Apr 29@LAL99–9333-7514-4019-25106110.0103.390.0
Apr 26LAL115–9639-8112-3025-311311122.3103.293.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
53%
pregame chance the forecast gave HOU, the winner
HOU was the forecast favorite
15 pts
margin miss
forecast +1, actual +16 for HOU
52nd
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
42nd
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.64 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statBOSHOU
Final score93109
Field goals32–83 · 38.6%43–79 · 54.4%
Three-pointers12–42 · 28.6%14–35 · 40.0%
Free throws17–20 · 85.0%9–13 · 69.2%
Rebounds3836
Assists2034
Turnovers1513
Steals68
Blocks25

How the model does with these teams over time: Boston Celtics · Houston Rockets

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (HOU)+1+16+15
Total points219202−17
BOS points10993−16
HOU points110109−1

Recent form before this game

Boston Celtics

DateOpponentResult
Nov 1 at ORL W 108–97
Oct 30 vs CHI W 125–111
Oct 27 vs BKN W 125–124
Oct 26 vs CHI W 134–99
Oct 23 vs NYK W 107–103

Houston Rockets

DateOpponentResult
Oct 31 vs OKC W 119–98
Oct 30 at DAL L 111–116
Oct 28 at MIL W 132–100
Oct 26 vs ATL W 120–110
Oct 24 at ATL W 121–114

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Feb 4 2025-26 BOS at HOU BOS 114 – 93 HOU
Nov 1 2025-26 HOU at BOS HOU 128 – 101 BOS
Jan 27 2024-25 HOU at BOS HOU 114 – 112 BOS
Jan 3 2024-25 BOS at HOU BOS 109 – 86 HOU
Jan 21 2023-24 BOS at HOU BOS 116 – 107 HOU