The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 30

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Charlotte Hornets at Washington Wizards

Friday, October 30, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

CHA 3–2@WAS 2–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: CHA 70 percent, WAS 30 percent. CHA Hornets 70% proj. 120 · final 79 WAS Wizards · home 30% proj. 113 · final 95
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
CHA Charlotte Hornets 120 79 −41
WAS Washington Wizards (home) 113 95 −18

Forecast: Charlotte Hornets to win, 70% win probability, projected margin 7.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans CHA

  • Home court+2.1 WASWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+8.4 CHAElo WAS 1295, CHA 1566; season margin WAS −9.5, CHA +1.8.
  • Recent form+1.7 CHALast 10 games, per 100 possessions: WAS scores 110.2 and allows 119.0; CHA scores 110.0 and allows 111.8.

Together: CHA by 7, a 70% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

CHA is 3–2, losing by 7 a game on average (scoring 101, allowing 108). Last season they were a +5 team, which still counts for 75% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −3, offensive rebounding +2.6. Their defense allows 17 free throws per 100 opponent shots (league 21), which alone adds about 1.2 points per 100 possessions.

WAS is 2–3, losing by 2 a game on average (scoring 114, allowing 116). Last season they were a −12 team, which still counts for 75% of their season margin. Their offense rebounds 18% of its own misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −1.6, shooting −1.4. Their defense lets opponents rebound 33% of their misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting defense −1.6. Justin Champagnie (7 ppg) is out.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors WAS; left favors CHA.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −8.4, Recent form −1.7, No playoff context +0.3, Player availability +0.1, Rest and schedule −0.0, giving −7.7 for WAS. -12-60+6+12 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −8.4 Recent form −1.7 No playoff context +0.3 Player availability +0.1 Rest and schedule −0.0 Projected margin −7.7
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin −7.7. The 70% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputCHAWASEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15661295 −0.9
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −201 −6.4
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +1.8−9.5 −1.3
Games played this season 55 +0.2
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 110.0110.2 +0.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 111.8119.0 −2.1
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 99.7 −0.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.07.3 +0.1
Rest days 22 −0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueWAS ptsCHA ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court-201.0−1.93+4.49−6.41
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)119.0+0.29+2.09−1.80
Season scoring margin (home)-9.5−0.54+0.50−1.03
Elo rating (home)1295.1−0.19+0.77−0.95
Rotation points missing (home)7.3+0.70−0.11+0.81
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.19+0.56−0.75
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)110.0−0.06−0.75+0.69
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)110.2−0.38−0.08−0.30
Season scoring margin (away)1.8−0.10+0.16−0.26
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)111.8−0.31−0.06−0.25
Games played (home)5.0+0.02−0.22+0.24
Home series wins0.0+0.32+0.08+0.24
Games played (away)5.0+0.13+0.23−0.09
Elo rating (away)1566.1+0.10+0.03+0.07
Series pressure0.0+0.05−0.01+0.05
Back-to-back (home)0+0.01−0.01+0.02
Rest days (home)2.0−0.00+0.02−0.02
Rest days (away)2.0+0.00+0.01−0.01
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Combined pace, last 1099.7+0.41+0.41−0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCHA1566WAS12957.3 pts toward CHA

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CHA1566

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1649 → started this one at 1611
  2. This season's 5 games: −45.4
  • W@BKN110–103+3.0
  • LATL81–128−48.4
  • WMIA115–110+3.7
  • WWAS110–103+1.6
  • L@DET89–97−5.3

WAS1295

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1206 → started this one at 1280
  2. This season's 5 games: +15.3
  • WMIL128–116+13.1
  • LTOR102–112−4.6
  • W@CHI124–120+10.4
  • L@CHA103–110−1.6
  • L@CLE111–121−2.0
Season scoring marginCHA+1.8WAS−9.51.1 pts toward CHA

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CHA+1.8

Scores 101.0, allows 108.2 over 5 games: −7.2 a game.

25% this season (−7.2) + 75% last season (+4.8) = +1.8

WAS−9.5

Scores 113.6, allows 115.8 over 5 games: −2.2 a game.

25% this season (−2.2) + 75% last season (−12.0) = −9.5

Offensive rating, last 10CHA110.0WAS110.20.4 pts toward WAS

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

CHA110.0scored, −4.5 vs league

FactorCHALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.2%54.5%−3.5
Turnovers (TOV%)14.5%12.2%−3.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)31.9%26.1%+2.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1630.210−1.4
Everything else+1.1

WAS110.2scored, −4.4 vs league

FactorWASLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.6%54.5%−1.4
Turnovers (TOV%)13.3%12.2%−1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)18.4%26.1%−3.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2220.210+0.3
Everything else+1.8
Defensive rating, last 10CHA111.8WAS119.02.1 pts toward CHA

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

CHA111.8allowed, −2.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.4%54.5%+0.2
Turnovers (TOV%)12.6%12.2%+0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.3%26.1%−0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1680.210+1.2
Everything else+0.8

WAS119.0allowed, +4.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.6%54.5%−1.6
Turnovers (TOV%)12.3%12.2%+0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)33.1%26.1%−3.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2220.210−0.3
Everything else+0.4
Pace, last 10average 99.7no effect on the margin

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CHA 97.0 and WAS 102.3 → average 99.7 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingCHA0.0WAS7.30.1 pts toward WAS

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CHA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-30 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

WAS7.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Justin Champagnie7.218.34

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-30 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestCHA2 daysWAS2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CHA2days

Last played Oct 28 against DET.

WAS2days

Last played Oct 28 against CLE.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CHA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 28@DET89–9731-7112-3515-1923993.7102.195.0
Oct 26WAS110–10342-9712-3914-171120114.6108.495.5
Oct 24MIA115–11038-8816-4323-251610113.9107.8101.5
Oct 23ATL81–12830-8711-5110-12251981.0128.0100.0
Oct 21@BKN110–10341-9315-4813-152015107.8102.0101.5
Apr 12@NYK110–9639-8519-5213-171712118.3102.193.5
Apr 10DET100–11834-8813-4719-231514104.2124.295.5
Apr 7@BOS102–11338-8816-4910-131214112.1122.891.5
Apr 5@MIN122–10845-9219-4513-151516124.5111.397.5
Apr 3IND129–10846-9624-4913-15912130.3109.199.0

WAS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 28@CLE111–12144-838-3215-17105119.4127.494.0
Oct 26@CHA103–11041-859-2812-151410108.4114.695.5
Oct 24@CHI124–12045-9410-3324-281311118.1113.2105.5
Oct 23TOR102–11230-7912-3730-3520695.3104.7107.0
Oct 21MIL128–11645-866-2832-411112123.1112.6103.5
Apr 12@CLE117–13042-9018-4115-19125117.0128.7100.5
Apr 10MIA117–14046-9214-3111-14134113.6135.9103.0
Apr 9CHI108–11938-9610-3822-271710100.9111.2107.0
Apr 7CHI98–12937-8611-3813-2121389.9119.4108.5
Apr 5@BKN115–12144-799-2518-28204116.2122.299.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
31%
pregame chance the forecast gave WAS, the winner
the forecast favored CHA
23 pts
margin miss
forecast −7, actual +16 for WAS
9th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
23rd
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 1.19 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statCHAWAS
Final score7995
Field goals30–101 · 29.7%28–72 · 38.9%
Three-pointers12–56 · 21.4%10–30 · 33.3%
Free throws7–12 · 58.3%29–35 · 82.9%
Rebounds5552
Assists2218
Turnovers1014
Steals126
Blocks14

How the model does with these teams over time: Charlotte Hornets · Washington Wizards

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (WAS)−7+16+23
Total points233174−59
CHA points12079−41
WAS points11395−18

Recent form before this game

Charlotte Hornets

DateOpponentResult
Oct 28 at DET L 89–97
Oct 26 vs WAS W 110–103
Oct 24 vs MIA W 115–110
Oct 23 vs ATL L 81–128
Oct 21 at BKN W 110–103

Washington Wizards

DateOpponentResult
Oct 28 at CLE L 111–121
Oct 26 at CHA L 103–110
Oct 24 at CHI W 124–120
Oct 23 vs TOR L 102–112
Oct 21 vs MIL W 128–116

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Oct 26 2026-27 WAS at CHA WAS 103 – 110 CHA
Feb 22 2025-26 CHA at WAS CHA 129 – 112 WAS
Jan 24 2025-26 WAS at CHA WAS 115 – 119 CHA
Dec 23 2025-26 WAS at CHA WAS 109 – 126 CHA
Oct 26 2025-26 CHA at WAS CHA 139 – 113 WAS