The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 31

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Philadelphia 76ers at Charlotte Hornets

Saturday, October 31, 2026 · tip-off 6:00 PM ET

PHI 5–1@CHA 3–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: PHI 39 percent, CHA 61 percent. PHI 76ers 39% proj. 107 · final 109 CHA Hornets · home 61% proj. 111 · final 104
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
PHI Philadelphia 76ers 107 109 +2
CHA Charlotte Hornets (home) 111 104 −7

Forecast: Charlotte Hornets to win, 62% win probability, projected margin 4.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans CHA

  • Home court+2.1 CHAWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Player availability+2.2 CHAPHI without Joel Embiid (19 ppg) and LeBron James (16 ppg).
  • Team strength+0.5 PHIElo CHA 1541, PHI 1553; season margin CHA +0.8, PHI +0.2.
  • Rest and schedule+0.4 PHICHA 1 days of rest, PHI 1. CHA and PHI on the second night of a back-to-back.

Together: CHA by 4, a 62% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

CHA is 3–3, losing by 9 a game on average (scoring 97, allowing 106). Last season they were a +5 team, which still counts for 70% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 50% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 7 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −3, offensive rebounding +2.6. Their defense holds opponents to 54% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 1.5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +1.2. They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

PHI is 5–1, winning by 4 a game on average (scoring 109, allowing 105). Last season they were a −1 team, which still counts for 70% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 51% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding −2.9. Their defense lets opponents rebound 30% of their misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 1.9 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +1.5. Joel Embiid and LeBron James are out (36 rotation points a game combined). They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors CHA; left favors PHI.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Player availability +2.2, Team strength −0.5, No playoff context +0.4, Rest and schedule −0.4, Recent form +0.1, giving +4.0 for CHA. -8-40+4+8 Model baseline +2.1 Player availability +2.2 Team strength −0.5 No playoff context +0.4 Rest and schedule −0.4 Recent form +0.1 Projected margin +4.0
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +4.0. The 62% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputPHICHAEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15531541 +0.3
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +58 −0.1
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +0.2+0.8 −0.0
Games played this season 66 −0.7
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 106.5105.3 −0.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 113.6110.8 +1.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 98.1 −0.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 35.60.0 +2.2
Rest days 11 −0.2
Second night of a back-to-back YesYes −0.2
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueCHA ptsPHI ptsMargin
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)105.3−1.96−0.39−1.58
Rotation points missing (away)35.6−0.14−1.41+1.26
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)106.5−0.09−1.16+1.07
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.87−0.11+0.97
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)110.8−0.40−1.21+0.80
Combined pace, last 1098.1−1.97−1.25−0.72
Games played (away)6.0+0.09+0.69−0.61
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)113.6+0.48−0.05+0.53
Home series wins0.0+0.41+0.05+0.36
Rest days (home)1.0−0.25+0.04−0.29
Elo rating (home)1540.6+0.04−0.20+0.23
Back-to-back (home)1−0.09+0.07−0.16
Games played (home)6.0−0.04+0.08−0.12
Elo rating (away)1552.7+0.06−0.02+0.09
Series pressure0.0+0.08+0.01+0.07
Elo gap incl. home court57.9−0.69−0.63−0.06
Season scoring margin (away)0.2+0.02+0.07−0.05
Rest days (away)1.0+0.05+0.01+0.04
Season scoring margin (home)0.8−0.02−0.05+0.03
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)1±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPHI1553CHA15410.3 pts toward CHA

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

PHI1553

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1531 → started this one at 1524
  2. This season's 6 games: +29.2
  • W@NYK106–100+16.0
  • WCLE114–106+7.9
  • WMIL127–116+3.4
  • LDET93–106−11.9
  • W@IND114–109+4.9
  • WNYK98–93+8.9

CHA1541

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1649 → started this one at 1611
  2. This season's 6 games: −70.9
  • W@BKN110–103+3.0
  • LATL81–128−48.4
  • WMIA115–110+3.7
  • WWAS110–103+1.6
  • L@DET89–97−5.3
  • L@WAS79–95−25.5
Season scoring marginPHI+0.2CHA+0.80.7 pts toward PHI

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

PHI+0.2

Scores 108.7, allows 105.0 over 6 games: +3.7 a game.

30% this season (+3.7) + 70% last season (−1.3) = +0.2

CHA+0.8

Scores 97.3, allows 106.0 over 6 games: −8.7 a game.

30% this season (−8.7) + 70% last season (+4.8) = +0.8

Offensive rating, last 10PHI106.5CHA105.30.5 pts toward PHI

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

PHI106.5scored, −8.0 vs league

FactorPHILeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.8%54.5%−5.7
Turnovers (TOV%)12.3%12.2%−0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)19.5%26.1%−2.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2370.210+0.8
Everything else−0.1

CHA105.3scored, −9.3 vs league

FactorCHALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)49.7%54.5%−7.3
Turnovers (TOV%)14.6%12.2%−3.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)32.0%26.1%+2.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1570.210−1.5
Everything else+0.3
Defensive rating, last 10PHI113.6CHA110.81.3 pts toward CHA

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

PHI113.6allowed, −1.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.4%54.5%+0.2
Turnovers (TOV%)13.3%12.2%+1.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)30.4%26.1%−1.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2240.210−0.4
Everything else+1.7

CHA110.8allowed, −3.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.5%54.5%+1.5
Turnovers (TOV%)13.0%12.2%+1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.9%26.1%+0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2010.210+0.3
Everything else+0.8
Pace, last 10average 98.10.7 pts toward PHI

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

PHI 99.5 and CHA 96.7 → average 98.1 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingPHI35.6CHA0.02.2 pts toward CHA

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

PHI35.6pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Joel Embiid19.235.25
LeBron James16.433.55

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-31 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

CHA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-31 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestPHI1 daysCHA1 days0.4 pts toward PHI

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

PHI1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 30 against NYK.

CHA1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 30 against WAS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

PHI

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 30NYK98–9337-7512-3412-16145108.9103.390.0
Oct 28@IND114–10940-8713-3621-241610110.7106.9102.5
Oct 25DET93–10636-907-2714-2310997.9110.495.5
Oct 24MIL127–11640-9819-4428-341111115.5104.5110.5
Oct 22CLE114–10642-927-2823-30169103.697.2109.5
Oct 20@NYK106–10037-8911-4021-27106103.998.0102.0
May 10NYK114–14443-868-3520-2897116.3146.998.0
May 8NYK94–10836-849-3213-16119101.1114.993.5
May 6@NYK102–10834-7513-3421-281811108.5113.794.5
May 4@NYK98–13730-7311-3027-3419899.0139.898.5

CHA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 30@WAS79–9530-10112-567-12101883.299.095.5
Oct 28@DET89–9731-7112-3515-1923993.7102.195.0
Oct 26WAS110–10342-9712-3914-171120114.6108.495.5
Oct 24MIA115–11038-8816-4323-251610113.9107.8101.5
Oct 23ATL81–12830-8711-5110-12251981.0128.0100.0
Oct 21@BKN110–10341-9315-4813-152015107.8102.0101.5
Apr 12@NYK110–9639-8519-5213-171712118.3102.193.5
Apr 10DET100–11834-8813-4719-231514104.2124.295.5
Apr 7@BOS102–11338-8816-4910-131214112.1122.891.5
Apr 5@MIN122–10845-9219-4513-151516124.5111.397.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
39%
pregame chance the forecast gave PHI, the winner
the forecast favored CHA
9 pts
margin miss
forecast +4, actual −5 for CHA
19th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
67th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.95 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statPHICHA
Final score109104
Field goals40–86 · 46.5%38–76 · 50.0%
Three-pointers14–35 · 40.0%14–39 · 35.9%
Free throws15–23 · 65.2%14–16 · 87.5%
Rebounds3638
Assists2726
Turnovers818
Steals114
Blocks38

How the model does with these teams over time: Philadelphia 76ers · Charlotte Hornets

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (CHA)+4−5−9
Total points218213−5
PHI points107109+2
CHA points111104−7

Recent form before this game

Philadelphia 76ers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 30 vs NYK W 98–93
Oct 28 at IND W 114–109
Oct 25 vs DET L 93–106
Oct 24 vs MIL W 127–116
Oct 22 vs CLE W 114–106

Charlotte Hornets

DateOpponentResult
Oct 30 at WAS L 79–95
Oct 28 at DET L 89–97
Oct 26 vs WAS W 110–103
Oct 24 vs MIA W 115–110
Oct 23 vs ATL L 81–128

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 28 2025-26 PHI at CHA PHI 118 – 114 CHA
Jan 26 2025-26 PHI at CHA PHI 93 – 130 CHA
Oct 25 2025-26 CHA at PHI CHA 121 – 125 PHI
Dec 20 2024-25 CHA at PHI CHA 98 – 108 PHI
Dec 16 2024-25 PHI at CHA PHI 121 – 108 CHA