The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 24

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets

Saturday, October 24, 2026 · tip-off 6:00 PM ET

MIA 0–2@CHA 1–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: MIA 39 percent, CHA 61 percent. MIA Heat 39% proj. 112 · final 110 CHA Hornets · home 61% proj. 116 · final 115
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
MIA Miami Heat 112 110 −2
CHA Charlotte Hornets (home) 116 115 −1

Forecast: Charlotte Hornets to win, 62% win probability, projected margin 4.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans CHA

  • Home court+2.1 CHAWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Recent form+1.6 CHALast 10 games, per 100 possessions: CHA scores 114.3 and allows 112.8; MIA scores 120.0 and allows 124.6.
  • Team strength+1.2 CHAElo CHA 1566, MIA 1484; season margin CHA +2.4, MIA ±0.0.
  • Rest and schedule+0.5 MIACHA 1 days of rest, MIA 1. CHA and MIA on the second night of a back-to-back.

Together: CHA by 4, a 62% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

CHA is 1–1, losing by 20 a game on average (scoring 96, allowing 116). Last season they were a +5 team, which still counts for 90% of their season margin. Their offense rebounds 32% of its own misses (league 26%), which alone adds about 2.8 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting −1.7, getting to the line −1.4. Their defense allows 16 free throws per 100 opponent shots (league 21), which alone adds about 1.3 points per 100 possessions. They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

MIA is 0–2, losing by 21 a game on average (scoring 108, allowing 130). Last season they were a +2 team, which still counts for 90% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 57% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security +2.0. Their defense lets opponents shoot 59% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 7 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers −3, free throws allowed +1.3. They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors CHA; left favors MIA.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Recent form +1.6, Team strength +1.2, Rest and schedule −0.5, No playoff context +0.3, Player availability −0.0, giving +4.6 for CHA. -8-40+4+8 Model baseline +2.1 Recent form +1.6 Team strength +1.2 Rest and schedule −0.5 No playoff context +0.3 Player availability −0.0 Projected margin +4.6
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +4.6. The 62% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputMIACHAEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 14841566 +0.3
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +152 +1.5
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. ±0.0+2.4 +0.2
Games played this season 22 −0.9
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 120.0114.3 −0.8
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 124.6112.8 +1.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 99.0 +1.1
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0 −0.0
Rest days 11 −0.2
Second night of a back-to-back YesYes −0.3
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueCHA ptsMIA ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court151.6+0.78−0.72+1.49
Combined pace, last 1099.0−0.10−1.20+1.09
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.30+0.51−0.82
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.67−0.13+0.80
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)120.0−0.12+0.67−0.79
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)124.6+1.03+0.28+0.75
Games played (away)2.0+0.21+0.81−0.59
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)112.8−0.59−1.10+0.51
Elo rating (home)1566.0+0.11−0.26+0.36
Season scoring margin (home)2.3+0.25−0.10+0.35
Back-to-back (home)1−0.22+0.06−0.28
Games played (home)2.0+0.33+0.59−0.26
Rest days (home)1.0−0.24+0.01−0.26
Home series wins0.0+0.28+0.04+0.24
Season scoring margin (away)-0.0−0.06+0.04−0.10
Elo rating (away)1484.5−0.08−0.01−0.07
Rest days (away)1.0+0.02+0.01+0.02
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)114.3−0.05−0.07+0.02
Series pressure0.0+0.02+0.00+0.02
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)1±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMIA1484CHA15661.8 pts toward CHA

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MIA1484

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1524 → started this one at 1518
  2. This season's 2 games: −33.8
  • LMIN106–131−21.7
  • LDET111–128−12.1

CHA1566

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1649 → started this one at 1611
  2. This season's 2 games: −45.4
  • W@BKN110–103+3.0
  • LATL81–128−48.4
Season scoring marginMIA±0.0CHA+2.40.6 pts toward MIA

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MIA±0.0

Scores 108.5, allows 129.5 over 2 games: −21.0 a game.

10% this season (−21.0) + 90% last season (+2.3) = ±0.0

CHA+2.4

Scores 95.5, allows 115.5 over 2 games: −20.0 a game.

10% this season (−20.0) + 90% last season (+4.8) = +2.4

Offensive rating, last 10MIA120.0CHA114.30.8 pts toward MIA

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MIA120.0scored, +5.5 vs league

FactorMIALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.3%54.5%+4.2
Turnovers (TOV%)10.8%12.2%+2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.7%26.1%−0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1930.210−0.5
Everything else−0.1

CHA114.3scored, −0.3 vs league

FactorCHALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.4%54.5%−1.7
Turnovers (TOV%)12.9%12.2%−1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)32.4%26.1%+2.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1600.210−1.4
Everything else+1.1
Defensive rating, last 10MIA124.6CHA112.81.3 pts toward CHA

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MIA124.6allowed, +10.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)58.9%54.5%−6.6
Turnovers (TOV%)9.8%12.2%−3.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.3%26.1%+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1660.210+1.3
Everything else−2.2

CHA112.8allowed, −1.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.4%54.5%+0.3
Turnovers (TOV%)11.8%12.2%−0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.7%26.1%+0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1650.210+1.3
Everything else+0.6
Pace, last 10average 99.01.1 pts toward CHA

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MIA 102.1 and CHA 96.0 → average 99.0 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingMIA0.0CHA0.0no effect on the margin

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MIA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-24 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

CHA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-24 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestMIA1 daysCHA1 days0.5 pts toward MIA

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MIA1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 23 against DET.

CHA1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 23 against ATL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MIA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 23DET111–12839-10215-5118-281218107.8125.5102.5
Oct 21MIN106–13139-818-3320-26184100.0124.8105.5
Apr 12ATL143–11758-10315-3712-17613137.5111.4104.5
Apr 10@WAS140–11749-8220-3722-26189135.9113.6103.0
Apr 9@TOR114–12846-8214-358-14136121.3136.294.0
Apr 7@TOR95–12133-9112-4417-19151093.1118.6102.0
Apr 4WAS152–13654-9317-3927-341410142.1125.9107.5
Apr 1BOS129–14744-9524-4717-23912130.3151.598.0
Mar 30PHI119–10943-9311-4022-291116117.8109.0100.5
Mar 29@IND118–13546-9913-3713-18710114.6129.8103.5

CHA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 23ATL81–12830-8711-5110-12251981.0128.0100.0
Oct 21@BKN110–10341-9315-4813-152015107.8102.0101.5
Apr 12@NYK110–9639-8519-5213-171712118.3102.193.5
Apr 10DET100–11834-8813-4719-231514104.2124.295.5
Apr 7@BOS102–11338-8816-4910-131214112.1122.891.5
Apr 5@MIN122–10845-9219-4513-151516124.5111.397.5
Apr 3IND129–10846-9624-4913-15912130.3109.199.0
Apr 2PHX127–10748-9318-4913-151011132.3112.695.5
Mar 31@BKN117–8641-8712-3923-251113123.290.595.0
Mar 29BOS99–11436-8312-4315-191110108.8125.391.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
62%
pregame chance the forecast gave CHA, the winner
CHA was the forecast favorite
1 pts
margin miss
forecast +4, actual +5 for CHA
79th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
133rd
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.49 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statMIACHA
Final score110115
Field goals37–86 · 43.0%38–88 · 43.2%
Three-pointers13–35 · 37.1%16–43 · 37.2%
Free throws23–25 · 92.0%23–25 · 92.0%
Rebounds3746
Assists2222
Turnovers1316
Steals93
Blocks55

How the model does with these teams over time: Miami Heat · Charlotte Hornets

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (CHA)+4+5+1
Total points228225−3
MIA points112110−2
CHA points116115−1

Recent form before this game

Miami Heat

DateOpponentResult
Oct 23 vs DET L 111–128
Oct 21 vs MIN L 106–131
Apr 12 vs ATL W 143–117
Apr 10 at WAS W 140–117
Apr 9 at TOR L 114–128

Charlotte Hornets

DateOpponentResult
Oct 23 vs ATL L 81–128
Oct 21 at BKN W 110–103
Apr 12 at NYK W 110–96
Apr 10 vs DET L 100–118
Apr 7 at BOS L 102–113

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 17 2025-26 MIA at CHA MIA 106 – 136 CHA
Mar 6 2025-26 MIA at CHA MIA 128 – 120 CHA
Nov 7 2025-26 CHA at MIA CHA 108 – 126 MIA
Oct 28 2025-26 CHA at MIA CHA 117 – 144 MIA
Mar 23 2024-25 CHA at MIA CHA 105 – 122 MIA