The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 26

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Washington Wizards at Charlotte Hornets

Monday, October 26, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

WAS 2–1@CHA 2–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: WAS 22 percent, CHA 78 percent. WAS Wizards 22% proj. 112 · final 103 CHA Hornets · home 78% proj. 123 · final 110
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
WAS Washington Wizards 112 103 −9
CHA Charlotte Hornets (home) 123 110 −13

Forecast: Charlotte Hornets to win, 78% win probability, projected margin 11.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans CHA

  • Home court+2.1 CHAWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+6.2 CHAElo CHA 1570, WAS 1299; season margin CHA +2.4, WAS −9.9.
  • Recent form+2.3 CHALast 10 games, per 100 possessions: CHA scores 114.8 and allows 111.0; WAS scores 112.5 and allows 123.7.

Together: CHA by 11, a 78% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

CHA is 2–1, losing by 12 a game on average (scoring 102, allowing 114). Last season they were a +5 team, which still counts for 85% of their season margin. Their offense rebounds 32% of its own misses (league 26%), which alone adds about 2.9 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −1.5, shooting −1.5. Their defense holds opponents to 54% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 1.5 points per 100 possessions. Their defense is above average at everything: shooting, turnovers, rebounding and free throws.

WAS is 2–1, winning by 2 a game on average (scoring 118, allowing 116). Last season they were a −12 team, which still counts for 85% of their season margin. Their offense rebounds 19% of its own misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 3 points per 100 possessions. Their defense lets opponents shoot 59% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 7 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding −2.2.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors CHA; left favors WAS.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength +6.2, Recent form +2.3, No playoff context +0.2, Player availability −0.1, Rest and schedule +0.0, giving +10.7 for CHA. -12-60+6+12 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength +6.2 Recent form +2.3 No playoff context +0.2 Player availability −0.1 Rest and schedule +0.0 Projected margin +10.7
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +10.7. The 78% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputWASCHAEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 12991570 +0.6
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +341 +5.0
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −9.9+2.4 +1.5
Games played this season 33 −0.9
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 112.5114.8 +0.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 123.7111.0 +1.9
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.8 +0.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0 −0.1
Rest days 22 −0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueCHA ptsWAS ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court341.0+2.34−2.66+5.00
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)123.7+1.51+0.22+1.29
Season scoring margin (away)-9.9+0.58−0.60+1.19
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.41+0.49−0.90
Games played (away)3.0+0.15+0.95−0.80
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.63−0.17+0.80
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)111.0−0.51−1.09+0.58
Elo rating (away)1298.7+0.25−0.14+0.39
Season scoring margin (home)2.4+0.29−0.06+0.34
Home series wins0.0+0.26+0.02+0.23
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)112.5+0.01−0.19+0.20
Elo rating (home)1569.7+0.00−0.18+0.19
Combined pace, last 10100.8+2.92+2.73+0.18
Games played (home)3.0+0.35+0.50−0.15
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)114.8−0.06−0.12+0.06
Back-to-back (home)0+0.04−0.01+0.05
Rest days (away)2.0+0.01+0.02−0.01
Rest days (home)2.0+0.02+0.03−0.01
Series pressure0.0+0.01+0.01−0.00
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingWAS1299CHA15705.6 pts toward CHA

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

WAS1299

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1206 → started this one at 1280
  2. This season's 3 games: +18.9
  • WMIL128–116+13.1
  • LTOR102–112−4.6
  • W@CHI124–120+10.4

CHA1570

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1649 → started this one at 1611
  2. This season's 3 games: −41.7
  • W@BKN110–103+3.0
  • LATL81–128−48.4
  • WMIA115–110+3.7
Season scoring marginWAS−9.9CHA+2.40.6 pts toward CHA

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

WAS−9.9

Scores 118.0, allows 116.0 over 3 games: +2.0 a game.

15% this season (+2.0) + 85% last season (−12.0) = −9.9

CHA+2.4

Scores 102.0, allows 113.7 over 3 games: −11.7 a game.

15% this season (−11.7) + 85% last season (+4.8) = +2.4

Offensive rating, last 10WAS112.5CHA114.80.3 pts toward CHA

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

WAS112.5scored, −2.1 vs league

FactorWASLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.0%54.5%−0.8
Turnovers (TOV%)12.7%12.2%−0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)19.2%26.1%−3.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2240.210+0.4
Everything else+2.1

CHA114.8scored, +0.2 vs league

FactorCHALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.6%54.5%−1.5
Turnovers (TOV%)13.3%12.2%−1.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)32.5%26.1%+2.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1680.210−1.2
Everything else+1.5
Defensive rating, last 10WAS123.7CHA111.01.9 pts toward CHA

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

WAS123.7allowed, +9.1 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)58.9%54.5%−6.5
Turnovers (TOV%)12.3%12.2%+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)31.1%26.1%−2.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2280.210−0.5
Everything else+0.1

CHA111.0allowed, −3.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.5%54.5%+1.5
Turnovers (TOV%)12.5%12.2%+0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.2%26.1%+0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1720.210+1.1
Everything else+0.1
Pace, last 10average 100.80.2 pts toward CHA

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

WAS 104.6 and CHA 97.0 → average 100.8 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingWAS0.0CHA0.00.1 pts toward WAS

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

WAS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-26 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

CHA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-26 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestWAS2 daysCHA2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

WAS2days

Last played Oct 24 against CHI.

CHA2days

Last played Oct 24 against MIA.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

WAS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 24@CHI124–12045-9410-3324-281311118.1113.2105.5
Oct 23TOR102–11230-7912-3730-3520695.3104.7107.0
Oct 21MIL128–11645-866-2832-411112123.1112.6103.5
Apr 12@CLE117–13042-9018-4115-19125117.0128.7100.5
Apr 10MIA117–14046-9214-3111-14134113.6135.9103.0
Apr 9CHI108–11938-9610-3822-271710100.9111.2107.0
Apr 7CHI98–12937-8611-3813-2121389.9119.4108.5
Apr 5@BKN115–12144-799-2518-28204116.2122.299.0
Apr 4@MIA136–15250-10617-4019-24913125.9142.1107.5
Apr 1PHI131–15350-9616-4015-17117124.8147.1104.5

CHA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 24MIA115–11038-8816-4323-251610113.9107.8101.5
Oct 23ATL81–12830-8711-5110-12251981.0128.0100.0
Oct 21@BKN110–10341-9315-4813-152015107.8102.0101.5
Apr 12@NYK110–9639-8519-5213-171712118.3102.193.5
Apr 10DET100–11834-8813-4719-231514104.2124.295.5
Apr 7@BOS102–11338-8816-4910-131214112.1122.891.5
Apr 5@MIN122–10845-9219-4513-151516124.5111.397.5
Apr 3IND129–10846-9624-4913-15912130.3109.199.0
Apr 2PHX127–10748-9318-4913-151011132.3112.695.5
Mar 31@BKN117–8641-8712-3923-251113123.290.595.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
78%
pregame chance the forecast gave CHA, the winner
CHA was the forecast favorite
4 pts
margin miss
forecast +11, actual +7 for CHA
131st
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
111th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.24 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statWASCHA
Final score103110
Field goals41–85 · 48.2%42–97 · 43.3%
Three-pointers9–28 · 32.1%12–39 · 30.8%
Free throws12–15 · 80.0%14–17 · 82.4%
Rebounds4154
Assists2117
Turnovers1411
Steals48
Blocks35

How the model does with these teams over time: Washington Wizards · Charlotte Hornets

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (CHA)+11+7−4
Total points235213−22
WAS points112103−9
CHA points123110−13

Recent form before this game

Washington Wizards

DateOpponentResult
Oct 24 at CHI W 124–120
Oct 23 vs TOR L 102–112
Oct 21 vs MIL W 128–116
Apr 12 at CLE L 117–130
Apr 10 vs MIA L 117–140

Charlotte Hornets

DateOpponentResult
Oct 24 vs MIA W 115–110
Oct 23 vs ATL L 81–128
Oct 21 at BKN W 110–103
Apr 12 at NYK W 110–96
Apr 10 vs DET L 100–118

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Feb 22 2025-26 CHA at WAS CHA 129 – 112 WAS
Jan 24 2025-26 WAS at CHA WAS 115 – 119 CHA
Dec 23 2025-26 WAS at CHA WAS 109 – 126 CHA
Oct 26 2025-26 CHA at WAS CHA 139 – 113 WAS
Mar 1 2024-25 WAS at CHA WAS 113 – 100 CHA