The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 2

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Chicago Bulls at Philadelphia 76ers

Monday, November 2, 2026 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET

CHI 1–5@PHI 6–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: CHI 18 percent, PHI 82 percent. CHI Bulls 18% proj. 110 · final 107 PHI 76ers · home 82% proj. 123 · final 126
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
CHI Chicago Bulls 110 107 −3
PHI Philadelphia 76ers (home) 123 126 +3

Forecast: Philadelphia 76ers to win, 82% win probability, projected margin 13.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans PHI

  • Home court+2.1 PHIWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+6.5 PHIElo PHI 1561, CHI 1358; season margin PHI +0.5, CHI −8.4.
  • Recent form+3.3 PHILast 10 games, per 100 possessions: PHI scores 108.6 and allows 111.1; CHI scores 107.7 and allows 117.4.

Together: PHI by 13, a 82% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

PHI is 6–1, winning by 4 a game on average (scoring 109, allowing 105). Last season they were a −1 team, which still counts for 65% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 51% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding −2.5, ball security +1.3. Their defense holds opponents to 53% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 2.5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +2.2, defensive rebounding −1.9.

CHI is 1–5, losing by 16 a game on average (scoring 114, allowing 129). Last season they were a −5 team, which still counts for 70% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 50% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 7 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −1.9, getting to the line +1.4. Their defense forces turnovers on 13.2% of opponent possessions (league 12.2%), which alone adds about 1.4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting defense −1.2.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors PHI; left favors CHI.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength +6.5, Recent form +3.3, No playoff context +0.3, Player availability −0.0, Rest and schedule +0.0, giving +12.2 for PHI. -16-80+8+16 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength +6.5 Recent form +3.3 No playoff context +0.3 Player availability −0.0 Rest and schedule +0.0 Projected margin +12.2
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +12.2. The 82% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputCHIPHIEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13581561 +0.7
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +273 +4.7
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −8.4+0.5 +1.6
Games played this season 67 −0.6
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 107.7108.6 +1.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 117.4111.1 +2.2
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 103.1 −0.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0 −0.0
Rest days 32 −0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValuePHI ptsCHI ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court273.2+1.63−3.12+4.75
Season scoring margin (away)-8.4+0.73−0.92+1.65
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)107.7−0.08−1.34+1.26
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)117.4+1.22+0.09+1.12
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)111.1−0.42−1.52+1.10
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.29+0.49−0.79
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.62−0.16+0.77
Elo rating (away)1358.1+0.36−0.12+0.48
Games played (away)6.0+0.21+0.68−0.47
Combined pace, last 10103.1+4.32+4.62−0.30
Home series wins0.0+0.32+0.02+0.30
Elo rating (home)1561.3+0.02−0.24+0.26
Games played (home)7.0−0.05+0.10−0.15
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)108.6−0.56−0.69+0.13
Season scoring margin (home)0.5+0.13+0.18−0.06
Rest days (home)2.0+0.01+0.04−0.03
Back-to-back (home)0+0.01−0.01+0.03
Series pressure0.0+0.04+0.01+0.02
Rest days (away)3.0+0.02+0.01+0.01
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCHI1358PHI15615.5 pts toward PHI

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CHI1358

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1339 → started this one at 1379
  2. This season's 6 games: −20.9
  • L@TOR92–135−10.0
  • W@MIL132–125+10.7
  • LWAS120–124−10.4
  • L@BOS99–134−5.9
  • LNYK127–133−2.5
  • L@BOS111–125−2.8

PHI1561

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1531 → started this one at 1524
  2. This season's 7 games: +37.8
  • W@NYK106–100+16.0
  • WCLE114–106+7.9
  • WMIL127–116+3.4
  • LDET93–106−11.9
  • W@IND114–109+4.9
  • WNYK98–93+8.9
  • W@CHA109–104+8.6
Season scoring marginCHI−8.4PHI+0.51.0 pts toward PHI

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CHI−8.4

Scores 113.5, allows 129.3 over 6 games: −15.8 a game.

30% this season (−15.8) + 70% last season (−5.2) = −8.4

PHI+0.5

Scores 108.7, allows 104.9 over 7 games: +3.9 a game.

35% this season (+3.9) + 65% last season (−1.3) = +0.5

Offensive rating, last 10CHI107.7PHI108.61.4 pts toward PHI

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

CHI107.7scored, −6.9 vs league

FactorCHILeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)49.9%54.5%−7.0
Turnovers (TOV%)13.5%12.2%−1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.6%26.1%+1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2570.210+1.4
Everything else−0.4

PHI108.6scored, −6.0 vs league

FactorPHILeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.4%54.5%−4.7
Turnovers (TOV%)11.3%12.2%+1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.5%26.1%−2.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2170.210+0.2
Everything else−0.3
Defensive rating, last 10CHI117.4PHI111.12.2 pts toward PHI

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

CHI117.4allowed, +2.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.3%54.5%−1.2
Turnovers (TOV%)13.2%12.2%+1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.5%26.1%−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2330.210−0.7
Everything else−1.7

PHI111.1allowed, −3.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.9%54.5%+2.5
Turnovers (TOV%)13.7%12.2%+2.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)30.4%26.1%−1.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2280.210−0.5
Everything else+1.3
Pace, last 10average 103.10.3 pts toward CHI

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CHI 107.5 and PHI 98.7 → average 103.1 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingCHI0.0PHI0.0no effect on the margin

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CHI0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-02 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

PHI0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-02 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestCHI3 daysPHI2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CHI3days

Last played Oct 30 against BOS.

PHI2days

Last played Oct 31 against CHA.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CHI

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 30@BOS111–12535-9215-5026-401620106.7121.4103.5
Oct 28NYK127–13344-9118-4221-30128122.1127.9104.0
Oct 26@BOS99–13433-8412-4421-31241492.5126.4106.5
Oct 24WAS120–12440-9312-4328-30129113.2118.1105.5
Oct 23@MIL132–12546-9812-4528-301413120.0113.6110.0
Oct 21@TOR92–13527-854-3634-47272182.1122.7111.0
Apr 12@DAL128–14952-10610-3814-191311114.3134.2111.5
Apr 10ORL103–12738-8710-3917-26201095.4118.7107.5
Apr 9@WAS119–10843-939-3024-251513111.2100.9107.0
Apr 7@WAS129–9846-9415-4522-27139119.489.9108.5

PHI

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 31@CHA109–10440-8614-3515-23813119.8115.690.5
Oct 30NYK98–9337-7512-3412-16145108.9103.390.0
Oct 28@IND114–10940-8713-3621-241610110.7106.9102.5
Oct 25DET93–10636-907-2714-2310997.9110.495.5
Oct 24MIL127–11640-9819-4428-341111115.5104.5110.5
Oct 22CLE114–10642-927-2823-30169103.697.2109.5
Oct 20@NYK106–10037-8911-4021-27106103.998.0102.0
May 10NYK114–14443-868-3520-2897116.3146.998.0
May 8NYK94–10836-849-3213-16119101.1114.993.5
May 6@NYK102–10834-7513-3421-281811108.5113.794.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
82%
pregame chance the forecast gave PHI, the winner
PHI was the forecast favorite
6 pts
margin miss
forecast +13, actual +19 for PHI
141st
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
94th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.20 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statCHIPHI
Final score107126
Field goals38–89 · 42.7%48–91 · 52.7%
Three-pointers10–38 · 26.3%11–31 · 35.5%
Free throws21–32 · 65.6%19–27 · 70.4%
Rebounds4247
Assists2636
Turnovers1314
Steals97
Blocks75

How the model does with these teams over time: Chicago Bulls · Philadelphia 76ers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (PHI)+13+19+6
Total points233233±0
CHI points110107−3
PHI points123126+3

Recent form before this game

Chicago Bulls

DateOpponentResult
Oct 30 at BOS L 111–125
Oct 28 vs NYK L 127–133
Oct 26 at BOS L 99–134
Oct 24 vs WAS L 120–124
Oct 23 at MIL W 132–125

Philadelphia 76ers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 31 at CHA W 109–104
Oct 30 vs NYK W 98–93
Oct 28 at IND W 114–109
Oct 25 vs DET L 93–106
Oct 24 vs MIL W 127–116

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 25 2025-26 CHI at PHI CHI 137 – 157 PHI
Dec 26 2025-26 PHI at CHI PHI 102 – 109 CHI
Nov 4 2025-26 PHI at CHI PHI 111 – 113 CHI
Apr 13 2024-25 CHI at PHI CHI 122 – 102 PHI
Feb 24 2024-25 CHI at PHI CHI 142 – 110 PHI