The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 30

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers

Friday, October 30, 2026 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET

NYK 2–3@PHI 4–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: NYK 70 percent, PHI 30 percent. NYK Knicks 70% proj. 114 · final 93 PHI 76ers · home 30% proj. 107 · final 98
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
NYK New York Knicks 114 93 −21
PHI Philadelphia 76ers (home) 107 98 −9

Forecast: New York Knicks to win, 70% win probability, projected margin 7.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans NYK

  • Home court+2.1 PHIWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+8.4 NYKElo PHI 1544, NYK 1683; season margin PHI −0.1, NYK +6.0.
  • Recent form+0.5 NYKLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: PHI scores 107.3 and allows 113.8; NYK scores 112.8 and allows 108.3.

Together: NYK by 7, a 70% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

NYK is 2–3, about even on points (scoring 110, allowing 110). Last season they were a +8 team, which still counts for 75% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 51% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding +1.1. Their defense holds opponents to 51% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding +2.4.

PHI is 4–1, winning by 3 a game on average (scoring 111, allowing 107). Last season they were a −1 team, which still counts for 75% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 50% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding −3, getting to the line +1.0. Their defense lets opponents rebound 29% of their misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 1.5 points per 100 possessions. Jaylen Brown (21 ppg) is out.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors PHI; left favors NYK.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −8.4, Recent form −0.5, No playoff context +0.3, Player availability −0.3, Rest and schedule +0.0, giving −6.7 for PHI. -8-40+4+8 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −8.4 Recent form −0.5 No playoff context +0.3 Player availability −0.3 Rest and schedule +0.0 Projected margin −6.7
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin −6.7. The 70% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputNYKPHIEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16831544 −1.1
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −69 −4.8
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +6.0−0.1 −2.1
Games played this season 55 −0.4
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 112.8107.3 −0.9
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 108.3113.8 −0.9
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 99.0 +1.4
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.020.6 −0.3
Rest days 22 −0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValuePHI ptsNYK ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court-69.4−1.90+2.91−4.81
Combined pace, last 1099.0−0.14−1.51+1.36
Elo rating (away)1683.2−1.40−0.04−1.36
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)108.3−1.36−0.05−1.31
Season scoring margin (home)-0.1−1.00+0.17−1.17
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)107.3−1.57−0.41−1.16
Season scoring margin (away)6.0−0.79+0.18−0.97
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.20+0.53−0.73
Games played (away)5.0+0.03+0.57−0.55
Rotation points missing (home)20.6+0.51+0.04+0.47
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)113.8+0.03−0.36+0.40
Elo rating (home)1543.8+0.06−0.21+0.27
Home series wins0.0+0.31+0.06+0.25
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)112.8+0.03−0.21+0.24
Games played (home)5.0+0.11−0.07+0.18
Series pressure0.0+0.07+0.01+0.06
Back-to-back (home)0+0.04−0.01+0.04
Rest days (away)2.0−0.00+0.01−0.01
Rest days (home)2.0+0.02+0.01+0.01
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingNYK1683PHI15445.9 pts toward NYK

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

NYK1683

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1787 → started this one at 1715
  2. This season's 5 games: −31.9
  • LPHI100–106−16.0
  • L@BOS103–107−7.1
  • LORL102–111−19.8
  • WDET111–97+8.5
  • W@CHI133–127+2.5

PHI1544

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1531 → started this one at 1524
  2. This season's 5 games: +20.3
  • W@NYK106–100+16.0
  • WCLE114–106+7.9
  • WMIL127–116+3.4
  • LDET93–106−11.9
  • W@IND114–109+4.9
Season scoring marginNYK+6.0PHI−0.12.5 pts toward NYK

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

NYK+6.0

Scores 109.8, allows 109.6 over 5 games: +0.2 a game.

25% this season (+0.2) + 75% last season (+7.9) = +6.0

PHI−0.1

Scores 110.8, allows 107.4 over 5 games: +3.4 a game.

25% this season (+3.4) + 75% last season (−1.3) = −0.1

Offensive rating, last 10NYK112.8PHI107.30.9 pts toward NYK

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

NYK112.8scored, −1.8 vs league

FactorNYKLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.4%54.5%−4.8
Turnovers (TOV%)11.7%12.2%+0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.6%26.1%+1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1960.210−0.4
Everything else+1.6

PHI107.3scored, −7.3 vs league

FactorPHILeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.5%54.5%−6.1
Turnovers (TOV%)11.7%12.2%+0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)18.9%26.1%−3.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2450.210+1.0
Everything else+0.3
Defensive rating, last 10NYK108.3PHI113.80.9 pts toward NYK

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

NYK108.3allowed, −6.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.2%54.5%+5.0
Turnovers (TOV%)12.0%12.2%−0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.8%26.1%+2.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2160.210−0.2
Everything else−0.6

PHI113.8allowed, −0.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.3%54.5%+0.4
Turnovers (TOV%)12.5%12.2%+0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.5%26.1%−1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2260.210−0.5
Everything else+2.0
Pace, last 10average 99.01.4 pts toward PHI

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

NYK 98.1 and PHI 99.9 → average 99.0 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingNYK0.0PHI20.60.3 pts toward NYK

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

NYK0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-30 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

PHI20.6pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Jaylen Brown20.636.35

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-30 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestNYK2 daysPHI2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

NYK2days

Last played Oct 28 against CHI.

PHI2days

Last played Oct 28 against IND.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

NYK

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 28@CHI133–12747-10522-4817-201216127.9122.1104.0
Oct 27DET111–9738-8812-3623-281819114.4100.097.0
Oct 25ORL102–11138-939-3817-241412102.0112.199.5
Oct 23@BOS103–10736-8016-4015-211612110.8116.392.5
Oct 20PHI100–10635-9411-3319-27141498.0103.9102.0
Jun 10SAS107–10636-7815-3220-28138115.1112.893.5
Jun 8SAS111–11540-8813-3718-221312119.4123.793.0
Jun 5@SAS105–10437-8915-3816-211210108.2105.198.0
Jun 3@SAS105–9539-9411-3616-18810105.096.099.5
May 25@CLE130–9348-9819-4315-201320127.591.2102.0

PHI

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 28@IND114–10940-8713-3621-241610110.7106.9102.5
Oct 25DET93–10636-907-2714-2310997.9110.495.5
Oct 24MIL127–11640-9819-4428-341111115.5104.5110.5
Oct 22CLE114–10642-927-2823-30169103.697.2109.5
Oct 20@NYK106–10037-8911-4021-27106103.998.0102.0
May 10NYK114–14443-868-3520-2897116.3146.998.0
May 8NYK94–10836-849-3213-16119101.1114.993.5
May 6@NYK102–10834-7513-3421-281811108.5113.794.5
May 4@NYK98–13730-7311-3027-3419899.0139.898.5
May 2@BOS109–10039-8211-2820-2393116.0105.394.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
31%
pregame chance the forecast gave PHI, the winner
the forecast favored NYK
12 pts
margin miss
forecast −7, actual +5 for PHI
9th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
54th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 1.19 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statNYKPHI
Final score9398
Field goals35–86 · 40.7%37–75 · 49.3%
Three-pointers13–41 · 31.7%12–34 · 35.3%
Free throws10–14 · 71.4%12–16 · 75.0%
Rebounds4539
Assists2326
Turnovers1314
Steals87
Blocks24

How the model does with these teams over time: New York Knicks · Philadelphia 76ers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (PHI)−7+5+12
Total points221191−30
NYK points11493−21
PHI points10798−9

Recent form before this game

New York Knicks

DateOpponentResult
Oct 28 at CHI W 133–127
Oct 27 vs DET W 111–97
Oct 25 vs ORL L 102–111
Oct 23 at BOS L 103–107
Oct 20 vs PHI L 100–106

Philadelphia 76ers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 28 at IND W 114–109
Oct 25 vs DET L 93–106
Oct 24 vs MIL W 127–116
Oct 22 vs CLE W 114–106
Oct 20 at NYK W 106–100

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Oct 20 2026-27 PHI at NYK PHI 106 – 100 NYK
May 10 2025-26 NYK at PHI NYK 144 – 114 PHI
May 8 2025-26 NYK at PHI NYK 108 – 94 PHI
May 6 2025-26 PHI at NYK PHI 102 – 108 NYK
May 4 2025-26 PHI at NYK PHI 98 – 137 NYK