2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Philadelphia 76ers at Chicago Bulls

Sunday, November 8, 2026 · tip-off 3:30 PM ET

PHI 8–2@CHI 1–7 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
PHI Philadelphia 76ers	123	127	+4
CHI Chicago Bulls (home)	116	121	+5

Forecast: Philadelphia 76ers to win, 70% win probability, projected margin 7.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans PHI

Home court+2.1 CHIWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
Team strength+7.8 PHIElo CHI 1350, PHI 1564; season margin CHI −10.3, PHI +0.7.
Recent form+0.9 PHILast 10 games, per 100 possessions: CHI scores 105.8 and allows 124.2; PHI scores 108.9 and allows 106.6.

Together: PHI by 7, a 70% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

PHI is 8–2, winning by 3 a game on average (scoring 109, allowing 107). Last season they were a −1 team, which still counts for 50% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 51% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone costs about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security +2.8, offensive rebounding −2.8. Their defense holds opponents to 50% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone adds about 4 points per 100 possessions.

CHI is 1–7, losing by 18 a game on average (scoring 112, allowing 130). Last season they were a −5 team, which still counts for 60% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 48% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone costs about 7 points per 100 possessions. Their defense lets opponents shoot 58% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone costs about 7 points per 100 possessions. Their defense is below average at everything: shooting, turnovers, rebounding and free throws. Norman Powell (19 ppg) is out.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors CHI; left favors PHI.

Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin −6.3. The 70% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated

Every input the model received, with its effect

Input	PHI	CHI	Effect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1564	1350	−1.3
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−143		−4.9
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+0.7	−10.3	−1.4
Games played this season	10	8	−0.1
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	108.9	105.8	+0.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	106.6	124.2	−3.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	103.2		+1.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	19.3	−0.1
Rest days	2	4	+0.2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No	−0.0

All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team

Input	Value	CHI pts	PHI pts	Margin
Elo gap incl. home court	-143.4	−1.54	+3.34	−4.87
Combined pace, last 10	103.2	+5.68	+3.75	+1.93
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)	124.2	+1.09	+2.96	−1.87
Elo rating (home)	1350.4	−0.31	+1.28	−1.59
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)	106.6	−1.18	−0.05	−1.13
Season scoring margin (home)	-10.3	−0.80	+0.17	−0.97
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)	108.9	−0.23	−1.16	+0.93
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)	105.8	−1.12	−0.38	−0.74
Season scoring margin (away)	0.7	−0.05	+0.38	−0.43
Rotation points missing (away)	0.0	−0.17	+0.22	−0.39
Rotation points missing (home)	19.3	+0.37	+0.07	+0.30
Elo rating (away)	1563.8	+0.18	−0.08	+0.26
Rest days (home)	4.0	+0.21	−0.03	+0.24
Home series wins	0.0	+0.19	+0.04	+0.15
Games played (away)	10.0	−0.00	+0.08	−0.08
Games played (home)	8.0	−0.32	−0.25	−0.07
Back-to-back (home)	0	−0.02	±0.00	−0.02
Elimination game	0	+0.01	−0.00	+0.01
Series pressure	0.0	+0.03	+0.02	+0.01
Rest days (away)	2.0	+0.01	+0.01	+0.00
Back-to-back (away)	0	±0.00	±0.00	±0.00
Baseline (average output)		114.4	112.4	+2.07

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPHI1564CHI13506.2 pts toward PHI

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

PHI1564

Ended last season at 1531 → started this one at 1524
This season's 10 games: +40.3

W@NYK106–100+16.0
WCLE114–106+7.9
WMIL127–116+3.4
LDET93–106−11.9
W@IND114–109+4.9
WNYK98–93+8.9
W@CHA109–104+8.6
WCHI126–107+4.5
W@DET112–106+12.8
L@CLE95–119−14.8

CHI1350

Ended last season at 1339 → started this one at 1379
This season's 8 games: −28.6

L@TOR92–135−10.0
W@MIL132–125+10.7
LWAS120–124−10.4
L@BOS99–134−5.9
LNYK127–133−2.5
L@BOS111–125−2.8
L@PHI107–126−4.5
L@NYK105–135−3.2

Season scoring marginPHI+0.7CHI−10.31.5 pts toward PHI

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

PHI+0.7

Scores 109.4, allows 106.6 over 10 games: +2.8 a game.

50% this season (+2.8) + 50% last season (−1.3) = +0.7

CHI−10.3

Scores 111.6, allows 129.6 over 8 games: −18.0 a game.

40% this season (−18.0) + 60% last season (−5.2) = −10.3

Offensive rating, last 10PHI108.9CHI105.80.2 pts toward CHI

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.1).

PHI108.9scored, −3.2 vs league

Factor	PHI	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.9%	53.2%	−3.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.3%	13.2%	+2.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	20.9%	27.2%	−2.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.227	0.225	+0.1
Everything else			+0.2

CHI105.8scored, −6.3 vs league

Factor	CHI	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	48.3%	53.2%	−7.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.2%	13.2%	+0.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.4%	27.2%	+0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.253	0.225	+0.8
Everything else			+0.2

Defensive rating, last 10PHI106.6CHI124.23.0 pts toward PHI

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.1).

PHI106.6allowed, −5.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.5%	53.2%	+4.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.8%	13.2%	+0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.2%	27.2%	−0.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.223	0.225	+0.1
Everything else			+0.5

CHI124.2allowed, +12.1 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.8%	53.2%	−7.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.3%	13.2%	−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	32.4%	27.2%	−2.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.251	0.225	−0.7
Everything else			−0.8

Pace, last 10average 103.21.9 pts toward CHI

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

PHI 100.3 and CHI 106.0 → average 103.2 (league 2026-27 to date: 100.4)

Rotation points missingPHI0.0CHI19.30.1 pts toward PHI

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

PHI0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-08 20:00 ET. 8 rotation players.

CHI19.3pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Norman Powell	19.2	28.7	8

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-08 20:00 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestPHI2 daysCHI4 days0.2 pts toward CHI

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

PHI2days

Last played Nov 6 against CLE.

CHI4days

Last played Nov 4 against NYK.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

PHI

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 6	@CLE	95–119	31-85	10-40	23-29	15	10	94.1	117.8	101.0
Nov 4	@DET	112–106	39-86	9-24	25-28	12	9	109.8	105.0	101.5
Nov 2	CHI	126–107	48-91	11-31	19-27	14	13	124.8	107.0	100.5
Oct 31	@CHA	109–104	40-86	14-35	15-23	8	13	119.8	115.6	90.5
Oct 30	NYK	98–93	37-75	12-34	12-16	14	5	108.9	103.3	90.0
Oct 28	@IND	114–109	40-87	13-36	21-24	16	10	110.7	106.9	102.5
Oct 25	DET	93–106	36-90	7-27	14-23	10	9	97.9	110.4	95.5
Oct 24	MIL	127–116	40-98	19-44	28-34	11	11	115.5	104.5	110.5
Oct 22	CLE	114–106	42-92	7-28	23-30	16	9	103.6	97.2	109.5
Oct 20	@NYK	106–100	37-89	11-40	21-27	10	6	103.9	98.0	102.0

CHI

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 4	@NYK	105–135	37-96	10-44	21-28	11	15	105.0	133.7	100.5
Nov 2	@PHI	107–126	38-89	10-38	21-32	13	13	107.0	124.8	100.5
Oct 30	@BOS	111–125	35-92	15-50	26-40	16	20	106.7	121.4	103.5
Oct 28	NYK	127–133	44-91	18-42	21-30	12	8	122.1	127.9	104.0
Oct 26	@BOS	99–134	33-84	12-44	21-31	24	14	92.5	126.4	106.5
Oct 24	WAS	120–124	40-93	12-43	28-30	12	9	113.2	118.1	105.5
Oct 23	@MIL	132–125	46-98	12-45	28-30	14	13	120.0	113.6	110.0
Oct 21	@TOR	92–135	27-85	4-36	34-47	27	21	82.1	122.7	111.0
Apr 12	@DAL	128–149	52-106	10-38	14-19	13	11	114.3	134.2	111.5
Apr 10	ORL	103–127	38-87	10-39	17-26	20	10	95.4	118.7	107.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

70%

pregame chance the forecast gave PHI, the winner

PHI was the forecast favorite

1 pts

margin miss

forecast −7, actual −6 for CHI

104th

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

133rd

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.35 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	PHI	CHI
Final score	127	121
Field goals	46–99 · 46.5%	46–88 · 52.3%
Three-pointers	14–34 · 41.2%	10–37 · 27.0%
Free throws	21–25 · 84.0%	19–23 · 82.6%
Rebounds	54	42
Assists	30	30
Turnovers	9	13
Steals	8	6
Blocks	2	8

How the model does with these teams over time: Philadelphia 76ers · Chicago Bulls

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (CHI)	−7	−6	+1
Total points	239	248	+9
PHI points	123	127	+4
CHI points	116	121	+5

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-08 20:00 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.