2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Sacramento Kings at Miami Heat

Saturday, December 6, 2025 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

SAC 2–1@MIA 2–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
SAC Sacramento Kings	111	127	+16
MIA Miami Heat (home)	124	111	−13

Forecast: Miami Heat to win, 82% win probability, projected margin 13.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	SAC	MIA
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1393	1553
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+230
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−11.8	+4.9
Games played this season	22	23
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	106.4	113.7
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	118.6	107.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	102.8
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	40.0	23.8
Rest days	3	1
Second night of a back-to-back	No	Yes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingSAC1393MIA1553

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

SAC1393

Ended last season at 1499 → started this one at 1499
First 12 games: −69.5
Last 10 games: −36.8

L@MIN110–124−3.7
L@SAS110–123−6.8
L@OKC99–113−1.7
L@MEM96–137−18.7
W@DEN128–123+16.9
WMIN117–112+10.8
LPHX100–112−10.7
L@UTA119–128−9.5
LMEM107–115−9.0
L@HOU95–121−4.4

MIA1553

Ended last season at 1462 → started this one at 1472
First 13 games: +34.8
Last 10 games: +46.5

WNYK115–113+5.0
WGSW110–96+12.7
W@CHI143–107+32.7
W@PHI127–117+7.8
WDAL106–102+2.0
WMIL106–103+2.6
LDET135–138−6.6
WLAC140–123+7.2
L@DAL108–118−14.0
L@ORL105–106−2.9

Season scoring marginSAC−11.8MIA+4.9

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

SAC−11.8

Scores 111.0, allows 122.8 over 22 games: −11.8 a game.

MIA+4.9

Scores 122.8, allows 117.9 over 23 games: +4.9 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10SAC106.4MIA113.7

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.9).

SAC106.4scored, −8.5 vs league

Factor	SAC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.2%	54.6%	−5.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.3%	12.5%	+1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.170	0.224	−1.5
Everything else			−3.4

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 2 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

MIA113.7scored, −1.2 vs league

Factor	MIA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.9%	54.6%	−2.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.0%	12.5%	+2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.212	0.224	−0.3
Everything else			−0.5

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 4 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Defensive rating, last 10SAC118.6MIA107.3

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.9).

SAC118.6allowed, +3.7 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.6%	54.6%	−1.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.7%	12.5%	+0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.226	0.224	−0.1
Everything else			−2.4

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 2 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

MIA107.3allowed, −7.6 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.9%	54.6%	+5.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.7%	12.5%	+0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.175	0.224	+1.4
Everything else			+0.3

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 4 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Pace, last 10average 102.8

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

SAC 100.8 and MIA 104.8 → average 102.8 (league 2025-26 to date: 101.0)

Rotation points missingSAC40.0MIA23.8

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

SAC40.0pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Domantas Sabonis	25.5	37.8	2
Dennis Schröder	14.5	27.2	6

Source: official injury report, 2025-12-06 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

MIA23.8pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Tyler Herro	23.8	31.3	5

Source: official injury report, 2025-12-06 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestSAC3 daysMIA1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

SAC3days

Last played Dec 3 against HOU.

MIA1day, back-to-back

Last played Dec 5 against ORL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

SAC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Dec 3	@HOU	95–121	40-97	10-34	5-10	12	–	95.0	121.0	100.0
Nov 30	MEM	107–115	43-94	8-27	13-22	8	–	104.9	112.7	102.0
Nov 28	@UTA	119–128	43-96	10-29	23-32	9	12	115.5	124.3	103.0
Nov 26	PHX	100–112	40-86	12-34	8-10	19	9	103.1	115.5	97.0
Nov 24	MIN	117–112	42-97	7-26	26-28	12	11	106.4	101.8	99.6
Nov 22	@DEN	128–123	48-91	10-30	22-23	6	9	133.3	126.8	96.5
Nov 20	@MEM	96–137	37-80	11-33	11-15	16	4	96.0	137.0	100.0
Nov 19	@OKC	99–113	38-86	8-28	15-23	18	12	96.1	108.7	103.5
Nov 16	@SAS	110–123	41-87	12-33	16-22	12	5	108.9	119.4	102.0
Nov 14	@MIN	110–124	41-93	12-33	16-27	15	13	104.8	119.2	104.5

MIA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Dec 5	@ORL	105–106	40-80	7-19	18-27	15	–	102.9	105.0	101.5
Dec 3	@DAL	108–118	40-101	11-37	17-18	10	–	106.9	119.2	100.0
Dec 1	LAC	140–123	53-100	24-46	10-12	11	–	132.1	116.0	106.0
Nov 29	DET	135–138	44-88	14-29	33-39	17	–	121.6	124.3	111.0
Nov 26	MIL	106–103	39-85	10-36	18-20	14	9	103.9	103.0	101.0
Nov 24	DAL	106–102	42-94	5-27	17-24	13	14	105.0	100.0	101.5
Nov 23	@PHI	127–117	48-98	11-32	20-30	13	18	119.8	110.4	106.0
Nov 21	@CHI	143–107	47-100	14-38	35-44	10	15	132.4	97.3	109.0
Nov 19	GSW	110–96	39-96	13-35	19-26	14	14	103.8	90.6	106.0
Nov 17	NYK	115–113	45-101	14-35	11-13	12	7	108.5	107.6	105.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

19%

pregame chance the forecast gave SAC, the winner

the forecast favored MIA

29 pts

margin miss

forecast +13, actual −16 for MIA

13th

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

55th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 1.69 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	SAC	MIA
Final score	127	111
Field goals	49–93 · 52.7%	41–85 · 48.2%
Three-pointers	14–33 · 42.4%	9–31 · 29.0%
Free throws	15–21 · 71.4%	20–32 · 62.5%
Rebounds	45	41
Assists	24	23
Turnovers	10	13
Steals	11	5
Blocks	5	4

How the model does with these teams over time: Sacramento Kings · Miami Heat

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (MIA)	+13	−16	−29
Total points	235	238	+3
SAC points	111	127	+16
MIA points	124	111	−13

Recent form before this game