The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 21

2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Miami Heat at Chicago Bulls

Friday, November 21, 2025 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

MIA 1–0@CHI 1–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: MIA 53 percent, CHI 47 percent. MIA Heat 53% proj. 122 · final 143 CHI Bulls · home 47% proj. 121 · final 107
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
MIA Miami Heat 122 143 +21
CHI Chicago Bulls (home) 121 107 −14

Forecast: Miami Heat to win, 53% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputMIACHI
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15241534
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +80
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +2.6−0.6
Games played this season 1514
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 114.5115.9
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 115.1119.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 104.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 25.60.0
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMIA1524CHI1534

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MIA1524

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1462 → started this one at 1472
  2. First 5 games: +40.0
  3. Last 10 games: +12.4
  • L@LAL120–130−6.5
  • W@LAC120–119+6.3
  • L@DEN112–122−5.0
  • WCHA126–108+4.9
  • WPOR136–131+5.9
  • WCLE140–138+5.6
  • LCLE116–130−11.4
  • L@NYK132–140−5.1
  • WNYK115–113+5.0
  • WGSW110–96+12.7

CHI1534

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1537 → started this one at 1528
  2. First 4 games: +28.8
  3. Last 10 games: −23.2
  • WNYK135–125+8.6
  • L@NYK116–128−8.7
  • WPHI113–111+1.7
  • L@MIL110–126−11.5
  • L@CLE122–128−4.1
  • LSAS117–121−9.2
  • L@DET113–124−7.4
  • L@UTA147–150−7.7
  • W@DEN130–127+10.6
  • W@POR122–121+4.5
Season scoring marginMIA+2.6CHI−0.6

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MIA+2.6

Scores 123.6, allows 119.8 over 15 games: +3.8 a game.

75% this season (+3.8) + 25% last season (−1.1) = +2.6

CHI−0.6

Scores 121.7, allows 121.9 over 14 games: −0.1 a game.

70% this season (−0.1) + 30% last season (−1.6) = −0.6

Offensive rating, last 10MIA114.5CHI115.9

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).

MIA114.5scored, −0.0 vs league

FactorMIALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.8%54.4%+0.6
Turnovers (TOV%)11.7%12.7%+1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.8%26.3%−2.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2240.227−0.1
Everything else+0.6

CHI115.9scored, +1.3 vs league

FactorCHILeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.0%54.4%+2.4
Turnovers (TOV%)12.0%12.7%+0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.9%26.3%−1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2080.227−0.6
Everything else+0.1
Defensive rating, last 10MIA115.1CHI119.5

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).

MIA115.1allowed, +0.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.0%54.4%+5.2
Turnovers (TOV%)11.8%12.7%−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)32.7%26.3%−2.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2010.227+0.8
Everything else−2.3

CHI119.5allowed, +4.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.9%54.4%−0.8
Turnovers (TOV%)10.4%12.7%−3.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.4%26.3%−0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2080.227+0.6
Everything else−1.3
Pace, last 10average 104.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MIA 105.8 and CHI 103.5 → average 104.7 (league 2025-26 to date: 101.3)

Rotation points missingMIA25.6CHI0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MIA25.6pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Andrew Wiggins16.934.410
Nikola Jović8.721.49

Source: official injury report, 2025-11-21 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

CHI0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-11-21 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestMIA2 daysCHI2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MIA2days

Last played Nov 19 against GSW.

CHI2days

Last played Nov 19 against POR.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MIA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 19GSW110–9639-9613-3519-261414103.890.6106.0
Nov 17NYK115–11345-10114-3511-13127108.5107.6105.5
Nov 14@NYK132–14044-9519-4425-341115129.4137.3102.0
Nov 12CLE116–13045-9415-3711-13219107.4120.4108.0
Nov 10CLE140–13846-9812-3636-411412121.7122.1103.2
Nov 8POR136–13149-9610-3528-361412120.4115.9113.0
Nov 7CHA126–10851-9912-2812-1486117.8103.8105.5
Nov 5@DEN112–12238-8614-4122-25145105.7115.1106.0
Nov 3@LAC120–11945-8312-2518-24166116.5116.7102.5
Nov 2@LAL120–13043-849-3325-36159114.3121.5106.0

CHI

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 19@POR122–12146-9621-499-14167115.1112.0107.0
Nov 17@DEN130–12748-10219-5315-19913125.0119.8105.0
Nov 16@UTA147–15049-10819-5030-321712116.7120.0103.9
Nov 12@DET113–12441-8612-3319-282112106.6118.1105.5
Nov 10SAS117–12141-9316-3819-231211111.4116.3104.5
Nov 8@CLE122–12838-8413-2933-361310118.4125.5102.5
Nov 7@MIL110–12644-9010-3312-16148103.8118.9106.0
Nov 4PHI113–11142-8913-3416-201812110.8109.9101.5
Nov 2@NYK116–12845-9317-409-111412114.9126.7101.0
Oct 31NYK135–12545-8417-3728-3576136.4127.698.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games
53%
pregame chance the forecast gave MIA, the winner
MIA was the forecast favorite
35 pts
margin miss
forecast −1, actual −36 for CHI
430th
most surprising result of 2025-26
of 1,309 graded games
22nd
largest margin miss of 2025-26
outcome surprise 0.64 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statMIACHI
Final score143107
Field goals47–100 · 47.0%37–90 · 41.1%
Three-pointers14–38 · 36.8%12–43 · 27.9%
Free throws35–44 · 79.5%21–28 · 75.0%
Rebounds5339
Assists3526
Turnovers1018
Steals135
Blocks713

How the model does with these teams over time: Miami Heat · Chicago Bulls

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (CHI)−1−36−35
Total points243250+7
MIA points122143+21
CHI points121107−14

Recent form before this game

Miami Heat

DateOpponentResult
Nov 19 vs GSW W 110–96
Nov 17 vs NYK W 115–113
Nov 14 at NYK L 132–140
Nov 12 vs CLE L 116–130
Nov 10 vs CLE W 140–138

Chicago Bulls

DateOpponentResult
Nov 19 at POR W 122–121
Nov 17 at DEN W 130–127
Nov 16 at UTA L 147–150
Nov 12 at DET L 113–124
Nov 10 vs SAS L 117–121

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 9 2024-25 MIA at CHI MIA 111 – 119 CHI
Mar 8 2024-25 CHI at MIA CHI 114 – 109 MIA
Feb 4 2024-25 MIA at CHI MIA 124 – 133 CHI
Dec 16 2023-24 CHI at MIA CHI 116 – 118 MIA
Dec 14 2023-24 CHI at MIA CHI 124 – 116 MIA