The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 24

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Houston Rockets at Atlanta Hawks

Saturday, October 24, 2026 · tip-off 8:30 PM ET

HOU 2–0@ATL 2–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: HOU 62 percent, ATL 38 percent. HOU Rockets 62% proj. 112 · final 121 ATL Hawks · home 38% proj. 108 · final 114
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
HOU Houston Rockets 112 121 +9
ATL Atlanta Hawks (home) 108 114 +6

Forecast: Houston Rockets to win, 62% win probability, projected margin 4.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans HOU

  • Home court+2.1 ATLWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Recent form+4.5 HOULast 10 games, per 100 possessions: ATL scores 110.4 and allows 116.5; HOU scores 114.1 and allows 110.2.
  • Team strength+1.0 HOUElo ATL 1586, HOU 1582; season margin ATL +3.6, HOU +5.3.
  • Rest and schedule+0.5 HOUATL 1 days of rest, HOU 1. ATL and HOU on the second night of a back-to-back.

Together: HOU by 4, a 62% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

HOU is 2–0, winning by 11 a game on average (scoring 121, allowing 110). Last season they were a +5 team, which still counts for 90% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 51% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding +3. Their defense forces turnovers on 14.4% of opponent possessions (league 12.2%), which alone adds about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding +1.8. Fred VanVleet (10 ppg) is out. They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

ATL is 2–0, winning by 27 a game on average (scoring 130, allowing 103). Last season they were a +1 team, which still counts for 90% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 53% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 1.9 points per 100 possessions. Their offense is below average at everything: shooting, turnovers, rebounding and free throws. Their defense lets opponents shoot 55% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 1.1 points per 100 possessions. They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors ATL; left favors HOU.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Recent form −4.5, Team strength −1.0, Rest and schedule −0.5, No playoff context +0.3, Player availability +0.2, giving −3.4 for ATL. -4-20+2+4 Model baseline +2.1 Recent form −4.5 Team strength −1.0 Rest and schedule −0.5 No playoff context +0.3 Player availability +0.2 Projected margin −3.4
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin −3.4. The 62% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputHOUATLEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15821586 +0.3
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +74 −0.2
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +5.3+3.6 −0.5
Games played this season 22 −0.5
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 114.1110.4 −0.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 110.2116.5 −2.9
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 97.5 −1.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 10.00.0 +0.2
Rest days 11 −0.2
Second night of a back-to-back YesYes −0.3
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueATL ptsHOU ptsMargin
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)110.2−2.02−0.19−1.83
Combined pace, last 1097.5−3.81−2.51−1.29
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)116.5+0.23+1.35−1.12
Season scoring margin (away)5.3−0.89+0.15−1.04
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.74−0.07+0.81
Games played (away)2.0+0.14+0.74−0.61
Rotation points missing (away)10.0−0.05+0.55−0.60
Season scoring margin (home)3.7+0.17−0.35+0.52
Rest days (home)1.0−0.24+0.02−0.26
Back-to-back (home)1−0.23+0.03−0.26
Elo rating (home)1585.7+0.05−0.17+0.23
Elo gap incl. home court73.5−0.81−0.59−0.22
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)110.4−0.29−0.08−0.21
Home series wins0.0+0.27+0.06+0.20
Games played (home)2.0+0.43+0.33+0.10
Series pressure0.0+0.10+0.01+0.10
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)114.1−0.05+0.01−0.06
Elo rating (away)1582.2+0.05+0.01+0.04
Rest days (away)1.0+0.04+0.01+0.03
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Back-to-back (away)1±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingHOU1582ATL1586no effect on the margin

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

HOU1582

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1588 → started this one at 1566
  2. This season's 2 games: +16.0
  • WDAL128–110+4.9
  • W@SAS114–110+11.1

ATL1586

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1535 → started this one at 1526
  2. This season's 2 games: +59.5
  • W@ORL132–125+11.1
  • W@CHA128–81+48.4
Season scoring marginHOU+5.3ATL+3.61.0 pts toward HOU

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

HOU+5.3

Scores 121.0, allows 110.0 over 2 games: +11.0 a game.

10% this season (+11.0) + 90% last season (+4.7) = +5.3

ATL+3.6

Scores 130.0, allows 103.0 over 2 games: +27.0 a game.

10% this season (+27.0) + 90% last season (+1.1) = +3.6

Offensive rating, last 10HOU114.1ATL110.40.3 pts toward HOU

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

HOU114.1scored, −0.5 vs league

FactorHOULeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.5%54.5%−4.6
Turnovers (TOV%)11.7%12.2%+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)33.5%26.1%+3.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2330.210+0.7
Everything else−0.6

ATL110.4scored, −4.2 vs league

FactorATLLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.2%54.5%−1.9
Turnovers (TOV%)12.7%12.2%−0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.4%26.1%−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1950.210−0.4
Everything else−0.5
Defensive rating, last 10HOU110.2ATL116.52.9 pts toward HOU

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

HOU110.2allowed, −4.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.1%54.5%−0.8
Turnovers (TOV%)14.4%12.2%+3.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.1%26.1%+1.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2280.210−0.5
Everything else+0.8

ATL116.5allowed, +1.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.3%54.5%−1.1
Turnovers (TOV%)12.7%12.2%+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.1%26.1%−0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2330.210−0.7
Everything else−0.5
Pace, last 10average 97.51.3 pts toward HOU

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

HOU 95.3 and ATL 99.7 → average 97.5 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingHOU10.0ATL0.00.2 pts toward ATL

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

HOU10.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Fred VanVleet10.030.52

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-24 17:30 ET. 6 rotation players.

ATL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-24 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestHOU1 daysATL1 days0.5 pts toward HOU

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

HOU1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 23 against SAS.

ATL1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 23 against CHA.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

HOU

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 23@SAS114–11038-7810-2528-31158117.5112.297.5
Oct 21DAL128–11047-8816-3618-251517130.6111.198.5
May 1LAL78–9828-805-2817-2411883.9106.592.5
Apr 29@LAL99–9333-7514-4019-25106110.0103.390.0
Apr 26LAL115–9639-8112-3025-311311122.3103.293.5
Apr 24LAL108–11240-9811-3917-231518104.9105.794.6
Apr 21@LAL94–10136-897-2915-191517105.6112.289.5
Apr 18@LAL98–10735-9311-3317-251321104.3113.894.0
Apr 12MEM132–10148-10514-4922-301119128.298.1103.0
Apr 10MIN132–13653-874-1922-281211133.3136.099.5

ATL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 23@CHA128–8148-9518-4514-221212128.081.0100.0
Oct 21@ORL132–12544-9014-3630-361711118.9114.7110.0
Apr 30NYK89–14031-829-3518-23191189.0141.499.5
Apr 28@NYK97–12637-8313-4210-17105103.2134.094.0
Apr 25NYK98–11434-8310-4120-251812104.3121.394.0
Apr 23NYK109–10839-8613-3318-261613107.9106.9101.0
Apr 20@NYK107–10640-819-3018-23116116.3114.092.5
Apr 18@NYK102–11338-8714-3712-19128103.0114.199.0
Apr 12@MIA117–14344-9317-4412-181613111.4137.5104.5
Apr 10CLE124–10245-9316-4418-251114121.6100.0102.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
62%
pregame chance the forecast gave HOU, the winner
HOU was the forecast favorite
3 pts
margin miss
forecast −4, actual −7 for ATL
80th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
116th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.48 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statHOUATL
Final score121114
Field goals43–89 · 48.3%43–96 · 44.8%
Three-pointers14–35 · 40.0%13–49 · 26.5%
Free throws21–23 · 91.3%15–21 · 71.4%
Rebounds4342
Assists2735
Turnovers1413
Steals69
Blocks42

How the model does with these teams over time: Houston Rockets · Atlanta Hawks

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (ATL)−4−7−3
Total points220235+15
HOU points112121+9
ATL points108114+6

Recent form before this game

Houston Rockets

DateOpponentResult
Oct 23 at SAS W 114–110
Oct 21 vs DAL W 128–110
May 1 vs LAL L 78–98
Apr 29 at LAL W 99–93
Apr 26 vs LAL W 115–96

Atlanta Hawks

DateOpponentResult
Oct 23 at CHA W 128–81
Oct 21 at ORL W 132–125
Apr 30 vs NYK L 89–140
Apr 28 at NYK L 97–126
Apr 25 vs NYK L 98–114

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 20 2025-26 ATL at HOU ATL 95 – 117 HOU
Jan 29 2025-26 HOU at ATL HOU 104 – 86 ATL
Mar 25 2024-25 ATL at HOU ATL 114 – 121 HOU
Jan 28 2024-25 HOU at ATL HOU 100 – 96 ATL
Feb 10 2023-24 HOU at ATL HOU 113 – 122 ATL