The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 26

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Atlanta Hawks at Houston Rockets

Monday, October 26, 2026 · tip-off 8:30 PM ET

ATL 2–1@HOU 3–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: ATL 33 percent, HOU 67 percent. ATL Hawks 33% proj. 109 · final 110 HOU Rockets · home 67% proj. 115 · final 120
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
ATL Atlanta Hawks 109 110 +1
HOU Houston Rockets (home) 115 120 +5

Forecast: Houston Rockets to win, 67% win probability, projected margin 6.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans HOU

  • Home court+2.1 HOUWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Recent form+2.3 HOULast 10 games, per 100 possessions: HOU scores 112.8 and allows 108.1; ATL scores 109.7 and allows 118.6.
  • Team strength+1.4 HOUElo HOU 1593, ATL 1575; season margin HOU +5.4, ATL +3.3.

Together: HOU by 6, a 67% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

HOU is 3–0, winning by 10 a game on average (scoring 121, allowing 111). Last season they were a +5 team, which still counts for 85% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 51% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding +3. Their defense forces turnovers on 14.9% of opponent possessions (league 12.2%), which alone adds about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting defense +1.3, defensive rebounding +1.0. Marcus Smart (8 ppg) is out.

ATL is 2–1, winning by 16 a game on average (scoring 125, allowing 109). Last season they were a +1 team, which still counts for 85% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 53% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 2.8 points per 100 possessions. Their offense is below average at everything: shooting, turnovers, rebounding and free throws. Their defense lets opponents shoot 56% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 2.1 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding −1.0.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors HOU; left favors ATL.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Recent form +2.3, Team strength +1.4, No playoff context +0.3, Player availability −0.2, Rest and schedule −0.0, giving +5.9 for HOU. -8-40+4+8 Model baseline +2.1 Recent form +2.3 Team strength +1.4 No playoff context +0.3 Player availability −0.2 Rest and schedule −0.0 Projected margin +5.9
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +5.9. The 67% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputATLHOUEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15751593 +0.2
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +88 +0.9
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +3.3+5.4 +0.5
Games played this season 33 −0.3
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 109.7112.8 +1.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 118.6108.1 +2.1
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 97.3 −0.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.07.5 −0.2
Rest days 22 −0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueHOU ptsATL ptsMargin
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)118.6+1.61+0.21+1.39
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)109.7+0.01−1.18+1.18
Elo gap incl. home court88.1+0.44−0.51+0.94
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.21+0.57−0.78
Combined pace, last 1097.3−2.92−2.18−0.74
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)108.1−0.42−1.14+0.72
Rotation points missing (home)7.5+0.56−0.04+0.60
Games played (away)3.0+0.33+0.93−0.60
Season scoring margin (home)5.4+0.14−0.35+0.49
Games played (home)3.0+0.59+0.33+0.27
Home series wins0.0+0.29+0.04+0.25
Elo rating (home)1593.0+0.03−0.21+0.23
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)112.8−0.28−0.06−0.21
Series pressure0.0+0.05+0.02+0.03
Season scoring margin (away)3.2+0.19+0.16+0.03
Back-to-back (home)0+0.02−0.01+0.03
Rest days (home)2.0+0.02+0.04−0.02
Rest days (away)2.0±0.00+0.01−0.01
Elo rating (away)1574.9+0.01+0.01−0.01
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingATL1575HOU15931.2 pts toward HOU

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

ATL1575

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1535 → started this one at 1526
  2. This season's 3 games: +48.7
  • W@ORL132–125+11.1
  • W@CHA128–81+48.4
  • LHOU114–121−10.8

HOU1593

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1588 → started this one at 1566
  2. This season's 3 games: +26.8
  • WDAL128–110+4.9
  • W@SAS114–110+11.1
  • W@ATL121–114+10.8
Season scoring marginATL+3.3HOU+5.40.2 pts toward HOU

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

ATL+3.3

Scores 124.7, allows 109.0 over 3 games: +15.7 a game.

15% this season (+15.7) + 85% last season (+1.1) = +3.3

HOU+5.4

Scores 121.0, allows 111.3 over 3 games: +9.7 a game.

15% this season (+9.7) + 85% last season (+4.7) = +5.4

Offensive rating, last 10ATL109.7HOU112.81.0 pts toward HOU

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

ATL109.7scored, −4.9 vs league

FactorATLLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.7%54.5%−2.8
Turnovers (TOV%)12.8%12.2%−0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.4%26.1%−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1920.210−0.5
Everything else+0.0

HOU112.8scored, −1.8 vs league

FactorHOULeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.8%54.5%−5.7
Turnovers (TOV%)11.8%12.2%+0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)33.1%26.1%+3.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2310.210+0.6
Everything else−0.3
Defensive rating, last 10ATL118.6HOU108.12.1 pts toward HOU

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

ATL118.6allowed, +4.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.9%54.5%−2.1
Turnovers (TOV%)12.3%12.2%+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.3%26.1%−1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2370.210−0.8
Everything else−0.2

HOU108.1allowed, −6.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.6%54.5%+1.3
Turnovers (TOV%)14.9%12.2%+3.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.8%26.1%+1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2220.210−0.4
Everything else+0.6
Pace, last 10average 97.30.7 pts toward ATL

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

ATL 99.4 and HOU 95.3 → average 97.3 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingATL0.0HOU7.50.2 pts toward ATL

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

ATL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-26 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

HOU7.5pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Marcus Smart7.523.92

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-26 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestATL2 daysHOU2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

ATL2days

Last played Oct 24 against HOU.

HOU2days

Last played Oct 24 against ATL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

ATL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 24HOU114–12143-9613-4915-211317115.2121.099.5
Oct 23@CHA128–8148-9518-4514-221212128.081.0100.0
Oct 21@ORL132–12544-9014-3630-361711118.9114.7110.0
Apr 30NYK89–14031-829-3518-23191189.0141.499.5
Apr 28@NYK97–12637-8313-4210-17105103.2134.094.0
Apr 25NYK98–11434-8310-4120-251812104.3121.394.0
Apr 23NYK109–10839-8613-3318-261613107.9106.9101.0
Apr 20@NYK107–10640-819-3018-23116116.3114.092.5
Apr 18@NYK102–11338-8714-3712-19128103.0114.199.0
Apr 12@MIA117–14344-9317-4412-181613111.4137.5104.5

HOU

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 24@ATL121–11443-8914-3521-231413121.0115.299.5
Oct 23@SAS114–11038-7810-2528-31158117.5112.297.5
Oct 21DAL128–11047-8816-3618-251517130.6111.198.5
May 1LAL78–9828-805-2817-2411883.9106.592.5
Apr 29@LAL99–9333-7514-4019-25106110.0103.390.0
Apr 26LAL115–9639-8112-3025-311311122.3103.293.5
Apr 24LAL108–11240-9811-3917-231518104.9105.794.6
Apr 21@LAL94–10136-897-2915-191517105.6112.289.5
Apr 18@LAL98–10735-9311-3317-251321104.3113.894.0
Apr 12MEM132–10148-10514-4922-301119128.298.1103.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
67%
pregame chance the forecast gave HOU, the winner
HOU was the forecast favorite
4 pts
margin miss
forecast +6, actual +10 for HOU
94th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
111th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.40 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statATLHOU
Final score110120
Field goals42–98 · 42.9%43–81 · 53.1%
Three-pointers11–39 · 28.2%8–27 · 29.6%
Free throws15–21 · 71.4%26–32 · 81.3%
Rebounds3552
Assists2631
Turnovers1321
Steals1011
Blocks49

How the model does with these teams over time: Atlanta Hawks · Houston Rockets

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (HOU)+6+10+4
Total points224230+6
ATL points109110+1
HOU points115120+5

Recent form before this game

Atlanta Hawks

DateOpponentResult
Oct 24 vs HOU L 114–121
Oct 23 at CHA W 128–81
Oct 21 at ORL W 132–125
Apr 30 vs NYK L 89–140
Apr 28 at NYK L 97–126

Houston Rockets

DateOpponentResult
Oct 24 at ATL W 121–114
Oct 23 at SAS W 114–110
Oct 21 vs DAL W 128–110
May 1 vs LAL L 78–98
Apr 29 at LAL W 99–93

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Oct 24 2026-27 HOU at ATL HOU 121 – 114 ATL
Mar 20 2025-26 ATL at HOU ATL 95 – 117 HOU
Jan 29 2025-26 HOU at ATL HOU 104 – 86 ATL
Mar 25 2024-25 ATL at HOU ATL 114 – 121 HOU
Jan 28 2024-25 HOU at ATL HOU 100 – 96 ATL