2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Philadelphia 76ers at Charlotte Hornets

Saturday, March 28, 2026 · tip-off 6:00 PM ET

PHI 4–3@CHA 8–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
PHI Philadelphia 76ers	112	118	+6
CHA Charlotte Hornets (home)	122	114	−8

Forecast: Charlotte Hornets to win, 76% win probability, projected margin 10.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	PHI	CHA
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1497	1656
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+230
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−0.4	+4.7
Games played this season	73	73
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	114.9	121.7
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	116.0	111.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	99.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	0.0
Rest days	3	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPHI1497CHA1656

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

PHI1497

Ended last season at 1288 → started this one at 1341
First 63 games: +144.2
Last 10 games: +11.9

L@CLE101–115−4.9
WMEM139–129+5.3
L@DET109–131−6.2
WBKN104–97+2.9
WPOR109–103+5.6
L@DEN96–124−10.1
W@SAC139–118+12.9
W@UTA126–116+7.0
LOKC103–123−8.4
WCHI157–137+7.8

CHA1656

Ended last season at 1237 → started this one at 1303
First 63 games: +344.1
Last 10 games: +9.5

LMIA120–128−15.3
L@PHX99–111−14.0
W@POR103–101+3.6
W@SAC117–109+3.2
L@SAS102–115−6.7
WMIA136–106+13.5
WORL130–111+8.5
WMEM124–101+3.5
WSAC134–90+4.4
WNYK114–103+8.8

Season scoring marginPHI−0.4CHA+4.7

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

PHI−0.4

Scores 116.2, allows 116.5 over 73 games: −0.4 a game.

CHA+4.7

Scores 116.3, allows 111.6 over 73 games: +4.7 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10PHI114.9CHA121.7

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.7).

PHI114.9scored, +0.2 vs league

Factor	PHI	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.4%	54.6%	−1.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.0%	12.2%	+1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.0%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.211	0.210	+0.0
Everything else			+0.3

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 1 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

CHA121.7scored, +7.0 vs league

Factor	CHA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.3%	54.6%	+4.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.8%	12.2%	−0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.0%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.188	0.210	−0.6
Everything else			+4.4

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 2 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Defensive rating, last 10PHI116.0CHA111.7

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.7).

PHI116.0allowed, +1.3 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.7%	54.6%	−0.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.3%	12.2%	+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.0%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.218	0.210	−0.2
Everything else			−1.0

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 1 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

CHA111.7allowed, −3.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.2%	54.6%	+3.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.9%	12.2%	−1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.0%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.186	0.210	+0.7
Everything else			+0.6

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 2 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Pace, last 10average 99.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

PHI 102.8 and CHA 96.7 → average 99.7 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.2)

Rotation points missingPHI0.0CHA0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

PHI0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-03-28 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

CHA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-03-28 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestPHI3 daysCHA2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

PHI3days

Last played Mar 25 against CHI.

CHA2days

Last played Mar 26 against NYK.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

PHI

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 25	CHI	157–137	57-103	22-47	21-28	8	9	138.9	121.2	113.0
Mar 23	OKC	103–123	41-94	17-46	4-9	16	9	103.0	121.8	100.5
Mar 21	@UTA	126–116	46-92	6-27	28-32	16	15	123.5	112.6	102.5
Mar 19	@SAC	139–118	51-102	17-36	20-24	9	17	132.4	113.5	104.5
Mar 17	@DEN	96–124	37-94	9-41	13-15	13	8	92.3	118.1	104.5
Mar 15	POR	109–103	44-97	7-25	14-15	12	14	103.8	100.0	104.0
Mar 14	BKN	104–97	38-82	3-25	25-31	14	8	103.0	97.0	100.5
Mar 12	@DET	109–131	42-90	8-35	17-24	15	10	106.9	127.2	102.5
Mar 10	MEM	139–129	45-86	11-31	38-46	10	12	136.3	127.7	101.5
Mar 9	@CLE	101–115	39-85	11-38	12-18	14	–	108.6	121.1	94.0

CHA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 26	NYK	114–103	41-78	16-41	16-20	16	12	129.5	115.7	88.5
Mar 24	SAC	134–90	48-94	26-55	12-16	13	12	138.1	90.9	98.0
Mar 21	MEM	124–101	45-85	18-43	16-24	17	13	125.3	102.0	99.0
Mar 19	ORL	130–111	42-80	22-46	24-27	22	10	131.3	114.4	98.0
Mar 17	MIA	136–106	51-96	17-42	17-21	13	10	128.3	101.0	105.5
Mar 14	@SAS	102–115	35-93	18-54	14-17	9	11	106.3	121.1	95.5
Mar 11	@SAC	117–109	41-90	19-40	16-17	14	13	121.9	116.0	95.0
Mar 10	@POR	103–101	34-88	14-38	21-25	16	16	104.0	102.0	99.0
Mar 8	@PHX	99–111	37-88	15-45	10-15	11	–	112.5	124.7	88.5
Mar 6	MIA	120–128	41-96	19-52	19-20	12	–	120.0	129.3	99.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

24%

pregame chance the forecast gave PHI, the winner

the forecast favored CHA

14 pts

margin miss

forecast +10, actual −4 for CHA

45th

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

399th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 1.42 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	PHI	CHA
Final score	118	114
Field goals	40–82 · 48.8%	36–96 · 37.5%
Three-pointers	16–34 · 47.1%	17–55 · 30.9%
Free throws	22–29 · 75.9%	25–32 · 78.1%
Rebounds	41	53
Assists	19	18
Turnovers	9	9
Steals	7	4
Blocks	5	1

How the model does with these teams over time: Philadelphia 76ers · Charlotte Hornets

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (CHA)	+10	−4	−14
Total points	234	232	−2
PHI points	112	118	+6
CHA points	122	114	−8

Recent form before this game