The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 2

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

New Orleans Pelicans at Memphis Grizzlies

Monday, November 2, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

NOP 2–4@MEM 6–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: NOP 44 percent, MEM 56 percent. NOP Pelicans 44% proj. 118 · final 135 MEM Grizzlies · home 56% proj. 120 · final 134
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
NOP New Orleans Pelicans 118 135 +17
MEM Memphis Grizzlies (home) 120 134 +14

Forecast: Memphis Grizzlies to win, 56% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans MEM

  • Home court+2.1 MEMWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Recent form+1.9 NOPLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: MEM scores 113.5 and allows 114.9; NOP scores 113.2 and allows 114.0.
  • Player availability+1.5 MEMNOP without Dejounte Murray (18 ppg) and Yves Missi (10 ppg) and 1 more; MEM without Scotty Pippen Jr. (6 ppg).

Together: MEM by 2, a 56% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

MEM is 6–0, winning by 15 a game on average (scoring 121, allowing 106). Last season they were a −6 team, which still counts for 70% of their season margin. Their offense rebounds 21% of its own misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 2.2 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: getting to the line −1.1. Their defense lets opponents rebound 36% of their misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Scotty Pippen Jr. (6 ppg) is out.

NOP is 2–4, winning by 2 a game on average (scoring 120, allowing 118). Last season they were a −4 team, which still counts for 70% of their season margin. Their offense turns it over on 13.5% of possessions (league 12.2%), which alone costs about 1.9 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: getting to the line +1.9, shooting −1.1. Their defense forces turnovers on 13.1% of opponent possessions (league 12.2%), which alone adds about 1.3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting defense −1.2. Dejounte Murray, Yves Missi and Jordan Poole are out (33 rotation points a game combined).

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors MEM; left favors NOP.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Recent form −1.9, Player availability +1.5, No playoff context +0.3, Team strength +0.2, Rest and schedule −0.0, giving +2.1 for MEM. -4-20+2+4 Model baseline +2.1 Recent form −1.9 Player availability +1.5 No playoff context +0.3 Team strength +0.2 Rest and schedule −0.0 Projected margin +2.1
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +2.1. The 56% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputNOPMEMEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 14291420 −0.0
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +61 +0.5
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −2.6+0.3 +0.3
Games played this season 66 −0.6
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 113.2113.5 +0.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 114.0114.9 −0.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 105.4 −1.4
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 33.36.4 +1.5
Rest days 22 −0.1
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueMEM ptsNOP ptsMargin
Combined pace, last 10105.4+4.46+5.81−1.35
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)114.9+0.14+1.07−0.92
Rotation points missing (away)33.3−0.19−0.93+0.74
Rotation points missing (home)6.4+0.59−0.12+0.72
Elo gap incl. home court60.5−0.57−1.06+0.49
Season scoring margin (away)-2.6+0.55+0.08+0.48
Games played (away)6.0+0.21+0.68−0.47
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)114.0+0.20−0.15+0.34
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)113.2−0.08−0.34+0.26
Home series wins0.0+0.28+0.04+0.24
Elo rating (home)1419.8−0.09+0.13−0.22
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)113.5−0.36−0.15−0.21
Elo rating (away)1429.3+0.14−0.05+0.20
Season scoring margin (home)0.3−0.02+0.15−0.18
Games played (home)6.0−0.07+0.07−0.14
Rest days (away)2.0+0.00+0.06−0.05
Back-to-back (home)0+0.03−0.01+0.04
Series pressure0.0+0.04+0.01+0.03
Rest days (home)2.0+0.00+0.01−0.01
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingNOP1429MEM14200.5 pts toward MEM

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

NOP1429

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1399 → started this one at 1424
  2. This season's 6 games: +5.4
  • LIND120–123−8.2
  • L@UTA119–120−4.4
  • L@DEN135–141−2.5
  • LDEN91–104−9.0
  • WSAC132–120+6.8
  • WATL121–99+22.7

MEM1420

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1273 → started this one at 1330
  2. This season's 6 games: +90.3
  • WUTA123–103+12.8
  • W@GSW111–108+9.2
  • W@SAC123–112+14.2
  • W@UTA110–105+7.8
  • W@POR124–103+34.1
  • WSAC136–105+12.2
Season scoring marginNOP−2.6MEM+0.30.3 pts toward NOP

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

NOP−2.6

Scores 119.7, allows 117.8 over 6 games: +1.8 a game.

30% this season (+1.8) + 70% last season (−4.5) = −2.6

MEM+0.3

Scores 121.2, allows 106.0 over 6 games: +15.2 a game.

30% this season (+15.2) + 70% last season (−6.1) = +0.3

Offensive rating, last 10NOP113.2MEM113.50.1 pts toward MEM

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

NOP113.2scored, −1.4 vs league

FactorNOPLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.8%54.5%−1.1
Turnovers (TOV%)13.5%12.2%−1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.9%26.1%−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2740.210+1.9
Everything else+0.7

MEM113.5scored, −1.1 vs league

FactorMEMLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.5%54.5%±0.0
Turnovers (TOV%)12.0%12.2%+0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.2%26.1%−2.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1720.210−1.1
Everything else+1.9
Defensive rating, last 10NOP114.0MEM114.90.6 pts toward NOP

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

NOP114.0allowed, −0.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.4%54.5%−1.3
Turnovers (TOV%)13.1%12.2%+1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.0%26.1%+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2400.210−0.9
Everything else+0.5

MEM114.9allowed, +0.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.4%54.5%+0.3
Turnovers (TOV%)12.2%12.2%+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)35.6%26.1%−4.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2180.210−0.2
Everything else+3.9
Pace, last 10average 105.41.4 pts toward NOP

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

NOP 106.9 and MEM 103.8 → average 105.4 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingNOP33.3MEM6.41.5 pts toward MEM

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

NOP33.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Dejounte Murray17.832.34
Yves Missi9.519.62
Jordan Poole6.015.94

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-02 17:30 ET. 13 rotation players.

MEM6.4pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Scotty Pippen Jr.6.416.05

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-02 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestNOP2 daysMEM2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

NOP2days

Last played Oct 31 against ATL.

MEM2days

Last played Oct 31 against SAC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

NOP

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 31ATL121–9943-767-1728-352310114.294.3105.5
Oct 29SAC132–12050-8510-2922-32205118.9108.1111.0
Oct 28DEN91–10434-827-3016-2219890.1104.0100.5
Oct 24@DEN135–14150-9911-3824-301814116.4119.5106.0
Oct 23@UTA119–12044-878-2623-27159116.7117.6102.0
Oct 21IND120–12338-8910-3034-371414114.3117.1105.0
Apr 12@MIN126–13245-1075-2131-38917117.8122.2107.5
Apr 10@BOS118–14444-969-3221-30138112.4137.1105.0
Apr 7UTA156–13761-10614-3420-23168127.9112.3122.0
Apr 5ORL108–11235-8410-3128-36159102.9107.7104.5

MEM

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 31SAC136–10547-8519-3823-27176128.3100.0105.5
Oct 29@POR124–10347-10218-4212-121015121.6101.0102.0
Oct 26@UTA110–10537-8516-3720-22126110.0104.0100.5
Oct 25@SAC123–11242-9615-4124-271219121.8113.1100.0
Oct 23@GSW111–10840-8615-3916-222518112.1108.099.5
Oct 21UTA123–10344-9313-3422-281315118.399.0104.0
Apr 12@HOU101–13239-9513-4910-1013398.1128.2103.0
Apr 10@UTA101–14741-10911-528-919483.5121.5121.0
Apr 8@DEN119–13642-9219-5016-2363119.0136.0100.0
Apr 6CLE126–14245-9429-597-10133122.3137.9103.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
44%
pregame chance the forecast gave NOP, the winner
the forecast favored MEM
3 pts
margin miss
forecast +2, actual −1 for MEM
37th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
116th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.82 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statNOPMEM
Final score135134
Field goals48–101 · 47.5%47–91 · 51.6%
Three-pointers14–37 · 37.8%18–40 · 45.0%
Free throws25–30 · 83.3%22–27 · 81.5%
Rebounds4749
Assists2730
Turnovers816
Steals85
Blocks39

How the model does with these teams over time: New Orleans Pelicans · Memphis Grizzlies

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (MEM)+2−1−3
Total points238269+31
NOP points118135+17
MEM points120134+14

Recent form before this game

New Orleans Pelicans

DateOpponentResult
Oct 31 vs ATL W 121–99
Oct 29 vs SAC W 132–120
Oct 28 vs DEN L 91–104
Oct 24 at DEN L 135–141
Oct 23 at UTA L 119–120

Memphis Grizzlies

DateOpponentResult
Oct 31 vs SAC W 136–105
Oct 29 at POR W 124–103
Oct 26 at UTA W 110–105
Oct 25 at SAC W 123–112
Oct 23 at GSW W 111–108

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Jan 30 2025-26 MEM at NOP MEM 106 – 114 NOP
Jan 23 2025-26 NOP at MEM NOP 133 – 127 MEM
Nov 26 2025-26 MEM at NOP MEM 133 – 128 NOP
Oct 22 2025-26 NOP at MEM NOP 122 – 128 MEM
Mar 9 2024-25 MEM at NOP MEM 107 – 104 NOP