2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks

Tuesday, October 20, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

PHI 0–0@NYK 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
PHI Philadelphia 76ers	107	106	−1
NYK New York Knicks (home)	116	100	−16

Forecast: New York Knicks to win, 75% win probability, projected margin 9.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

No saved inputs are stored with this game's forecast.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

25%

pregame chance the forecast gave PHI, the winner

the forecast favored NYK

15 pts

margin miss

forecast +9, actual −6 for NYK

5th

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

42nd

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 1.37 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	PHI	NYK
Final score	106	100
Field goals	37–89 · 41.6%	35–94 · 37.2%
Three-pointers	11–40 · 27.5%	11–33 · 33.3%
Free throws	21–27 · 77.8%	19–27 · 70.4%
Rebounds	45	53
Assists	28	21
Turnovers	10	14
Steals	8	6
Blocks	10	8

How the model does with these teams over time: Philadelphia 76ers · New York Knicks

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (NYK)	+9	−6	−15
Total points	223	206	−17
PHI points	107	106	−1
NYK points	116	100	−16

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-10-20 17:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.