The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for May 4

2025-26 · Playoffs · Final

Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks

Monday, May 4, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

PHI 5–4@NYK 3–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: PHI 44 percent, NYK 56 percent. PHI 76ers 44% proj. 103 · final 98 NYK Knicks · home 56% proj. 105 · final 137
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
PHI Philadelphia 76ers 103 98 −5
NYK New York Knicks (home) 105 137 +32

Forecast: New York Knicks to win, 56% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputPHINYK
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15691694
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +195
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −0.4+7.0
Games played this season 8987
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 108.8119.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 111.2107.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 96.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 24
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo
Playoff series state 0 home series wins

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPHI1569NYK1694

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

PHI1569

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1288 → started this one at 1341
  2. First 79 games: +163.9
  3. Last 10 games: +64.5
  • L@HOU102–113−5.2
  • W@IND105–94+7.8
  • WMIL126–106+5.9
  • L@BOS91–123−7.4
  • W@BOS111–97+26.7
  • LBOS100–108−6.9
  • LBOS96–128−16.5
  • W@BOS113–97+28.8
  • WBOS106–93+15.0
  • W@BOS109–100+16.3

NYK1694

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1606 → started this one at 1580
  2. First 77 games: +60.8
  3. Last 10 games: +54.0
  • W@ATL108–105+6.3
  • WBOS112–106+7.0
  • WTOR112–95+7.0
  • LCHA96–110−17.9
  • WATL113–102+6.5
  • LATL106–107−6.3
  • L@ATL108–109−3.8
  • W@ATL114–98+15.2
  • WATL126–97+11.3
  • W@ATL140–89+28.7
Season scoring marginPHI−0.4NYK+7.0

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

PHI−0.4

Scores 114.9, allows 115.3 over 89 games: −0.4 a game.

NYK+7.0

Scores 116.4, allows 109.3 over 87 games: +7.0 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10PHI108.8NYK119.5

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.7).

PHI

Couldn't be rebuilt exactly from the stored box scores.

NYK119.5scored, +4.9 vs league

FactorNYKLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.3%54.6%+4.1
Turnovers (TOV%)10.9%12.2%+1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.0%26.0%−0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2190.209+0.3
Everything else−0.9
Defensive rating, last 10PHI111.2NYK107.3

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.7).

PHI

Couldn't be rebuilt exactly from the stored box scores.

NYK107.3allowed, −7.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.9%54.6%+4.1
Turnovers (TOV%)13.4%12.2%+1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.2%26.0%+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1780.209+0.9
Everything else−0.1
Pace, last 10average 96.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

Couldn't be rebuilt exactly from the stored box scores.

Rotation points missingPHI0.0NYK0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

PHI0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-05-04 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

NYK0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-05-04 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestPHI2 daysNYK4 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

PHI2days

Last played May 2 against BOS.

NYK4days

Last played Apr 30 against ATL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

PHI

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
May 2@BOS109–10039-8211-2820-2393116.0105.394.5
Apr 30BOS106–9339-8911-3317-19108107.193.099.5
Apr 28@BOS113–9739-7815-4220-2395120.2103.294.0
Apr 26BOS96–12833-809-3021-2486102.1139.193.0
Apr 24BOS100–10838-8712-3512-161113112.4121.389.0
Apr 21@BOS111–9743-9019-396-11712126.1107.889.0
Apr 19@BOS91–12335-904-2317-23141193.8126.897.0
Apr 12MIL126–10647-9116-4116-211210121.2101.9104.0
Apr 10@IND105–9442-1045-2916-19816101.089.5104.5
Apr 9@HOU102–11338-8511-3215-23161199.0110.8102.5

NYK

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 30@ATL140–8950-8513-3627-3499141.489.099.5
Apr 28ATL126–9745-7911-2625-34118134.0103.294.0
Apr 25@ATL114–9841-8314-3118-231412121.3104.394.0
Apr 23@ATL108–10940-9310-3518-201514106.9107.9101.0
Apr 20ATL106–10739-8711-3417-271414114.0116.392.5
Apr 18ATL113–10238-8012-2525-30116114.1103.099.0
Apr 12CHA96–11039-9013-405-81012102.1118.393.5
Apr 10TOR112–9541-758-3122-27105120.4102.293.0
Apr 9BOS112–10643-8015-3511-1575127.3120.588.0
Apr 6@ATL108–10542-8411-3313-171512113.7108.296.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games
56%
pregame chance the forecast gave NYK, the winner
NYK was the forecast favorite
37 pts
margin miss
forecast +2, actual +39 for NYK
575th
most surprising result of 2025-26
of 1,309 graded games
17th
largest margin miss of 2025-26
outcome surprise 0.58 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statPHINYK
Final score98137
Field goals30–73 · 41.1%53–84 · 63.1%
Three-pointers11–30 · 36.7%19–37 · 51.4%
Free throws27–34 · 79.4%12–17 · 70.6%
Rebounds2839
Assists1534
Turnovers1914
Steals610
Blocks16

How the model does with these teams over time: Philadelphia 76ers · New York Knicks

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (NYK)+2+39+37
Total points208235+27
PHI points10398−5
NYK points105137+32

Recent form before this game

Philadelphia 76ers

DateOpponentResult
May 2 at BOS W 109–100
Apr 30 vs BOS W 106–93
Apr 28 at BOS W 113–97
Apr 26 vs BOS L 96–128
Apr 24 vs BOS L 100–108

New York Knicks

DateOpponentResult
Apr 30 at ATL W 140–89
Apr 28 vs ATL W 126–97
Apr 25 at ATL W 114–98
Apr 23 at ATL L 108–109
Apr 20 vs ATL L 106–107

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Feb 11 2025-26 NYK at PHI NYK 138 – 89 PHI
Jan 24 2025-26 NYK at PHI NYK 112 – 109 PHI
Jan 3 2025-26 PHI at NYK PHI 130 – 119 NYK
Dec 19 2025-26 PHI at NYK PHI 116 – 107 NYK
Apr 1 2024-25 PHI at NYK PHI 91 – 105 NYK